Skip to main content

Super League | Round 9

alphr.com.au

HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • THURSDAY 24 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

3218
STH

St Helens

❌ Upset — model favoured St Helens at 58%

AI Win Probability

58%St HelensFavourite

Warrington Wolves

42%

St Helens

58%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Warrington Wolves are far from out of this at 42%. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but St Helens counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. St Helens carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1587 vs 1538).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @2.36

Lost ✗

Edge

+15.2%

Line / Spread

St Helens -0.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R4L
R5W
R6W
R7L
R8L

older → newer

15.2
St Helens
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8L
15.2

Avg Conceded

20.4

Warrington Wolves

17.0

St Helens

Avg Margin

-5.2

Warrington Wolves

-1.8

St Helens

Run Metres

732

Warrington Wolves

1122

St Helens

Clean Breaks

2.0

Warrington Wolves

3.6

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 5-0
Mar 2026WAR 24 - 14 STH
Apr 2025WAR 14 - 12 STH
Feb 2024WAR 23 - 22 STH
Sep 2024WAR 16 - 2 STH
Jul 2024WAR 24 - 10 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1587 vs 1538), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.74).

The model sides with ELO, St Helens predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1538Overall1587
STH
ELO difference: -49 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

951Forwards903
Best: 1061WAR +48Best: 1035
916Backs800
Best: 1000WAR +116Best: 933
1165Halves784
Best: 1165WAR +381Best: 784
692Hooker600
WAR +92

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
STH
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
15.2pts
20.4pts
Avg Conceded
17.0pts
-5.2pts
Avg Margin
-1.8pts
731.6m
Run Metres
1122.0m
2.0
Clean Breaks
3.6
262.2
Tackles
265.0
8.0
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Wolves
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

58%

St Helens predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: -0.6

0/4 match predictions correct