# Warrington Wolves v St Helens — Super League Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 32 – 18 St Helens

_Warrington Wolves run down St Helens._

Half time: 16 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 42% / St Helens 58% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Thu, 24 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Toby King (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Matty Ashton (20' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (28' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (44' Tipped ⚡), Rodrick Tai (62'), Matthew Dufty (69') · St Helens: Jonathan Bennison (24' Tipped ⚡), Mark Percival (31'), Mark Percival (37'), Jonathan Bennison (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 58% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Warrington Wolves 32–18 St Helens in Super League Round 9 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens ran the ball for 906 metres against Warrington's 626. They busted 28 tackles to Warrington's 24 and offloaded six times to three. On paper that's the side playing with more ambition, throwing the ball around and making metres look easy. Warrington played a tighter game, held onto the ball better and let the scoreboard do the arguing. Final score: Warrington Wolves 32, St Helens 18, at Halliwell Jones Stadium.

The gap between the two was patience against sloppiness. St Helens coughed up possession ten times to Warrington's four, and gave away four penalties to Warrington's two. All that running counts for less when you keep handing the ball back through errors and ill-discipline.

It was tight at the break, 16-14 Warrington, so nobody was coasting. Toby King opened the scoring in the 13th minute, Matty Ashton followed in the 20th, and Marc Sneyd's conversions had Warrington out to 16-4 by the 29th. St Helens hit back through Jonathan Bennison in the 24th and twice through Mark Percival, in the 31st and 37th, George Whitby's conversion getting them within two at the break.

From there Warrington took control. Ashton completed his hat-trick in the 44th minute to make it 20-14, and after a long stretch without a try either way, Rodrick Tai crossed in the 62nd. Josh Thewlis converted, then Matthew Dufty scored in the 69th and Thewlis added the extras again to push it out to 32-14. That's 12 unanswered points across a 28-minute stretch of the second half. Bennison's second try in the 72nd closed the gap slightly, but by then the game was decided.

Ashton's three tries were the difference on their own. Add Toby King, Rodrick Tai and Matthew Dufty and that's six tries spread across five different players, against St Helens getting all four of theirs from just Bennison and Percival. Warrington had fewer line breaks than you'd expect for a side that scored six tries, six to St Helens' five, but they finished nearly every chance they created. St Helens broke almost as often and still came away with a third fewer tries.

That fits the pre-match numbers. Warrington's halves were rated 1165 to St Helens' 784, comfortably the biggest gap on the sheet between the two sides, bigger than the forwards gap (951 to 903) or the backs gap (916 to 800).

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 626 | Run metres | **906** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 24 | Tackle busts | **28** |
| 3 | Offloads | **6** |
| **4** | Errors | 10 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 4 |
| 4/7 | Goals | 1/4 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 4 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 58% prediction for St Helens, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 14 points. Warrington Wolves led 16–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 2 · St Helens 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 1 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 58%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 49 ELO points clear, 1587 to 1538.

On paper Warrington Wolves shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with St Helens, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.0pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | -1.8pts |
| 731.6m | Run Metres | 1122.0m |
| 2.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 262.2 | Tackles | 265.0 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L | 15.2 |
| St Helens | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | St Helens | 6 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R1 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 14 | St Helens | St Helens 61% ✗ |
| 2025 | R5 | St Helens | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 22 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 2 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: King, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 9 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 134m/g | 196m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 14 | 18 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 453m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 81.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 7 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 251m/g | 351m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.8% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.37) -8% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.86) -21% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — 2nd Rows 0.29/g (lg 0.24) +21% · Halfbacks 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.12) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 69' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 20/40g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 4/18g | 16/35g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.88 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.45 AI 19% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 62' |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 6 in 6g | 16/10g (3·3·2·2·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 7/11g | 37/42g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.97 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.07 AI 31% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 28' 44' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 2/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Danny Walker | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 9/50g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 3/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 13/56g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | James Harrison | INT | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/20g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 2/42g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Zane Musgrove | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (4·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.04 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.62 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.65 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' 72' |
| 3 | Dayon Sambou | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 4/6g | 28% | — | 🏉 31' 37' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 2 in 3g | 10/10g (3·1·4·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.50 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.40 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/37g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/18g | 2/5g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.17 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** St Helens hold the ELO advantage (1587 vs 1538), but the market favours Warrington Wolves (@1.74). The model sides with ELO, St Helens predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1538 · St Helens 1587 · ELO difference: 49 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — St Helens predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)