# Salford Red Devils v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 6 – 28 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards hunt down Salford Red Devils._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 49% / Leigh Leopards 51% · Salford Community Stadium · Sat, 26 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: Joe Shorrocks (61') · Leigh Leopards: Andrew Badrock (1' 1st), AJ Towse (7'), Darnell McIntosh (20' Tipped ⚡), Andrew Badrock (35' 1st), Matt Davis (46'), Josh Charnley (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 51% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.3 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Salford Red Devils 6–28 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 9 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils spent the night trying to break tackles, and did it well. Leigh Leopards spent the night just running the ball forward, over and over, and did it better. Final score at Salford Community Stadium: Leigh Leopards 28, Salford Red Devils 6, and the gap between those two approaches tells you most of what you need to know.

The tackle-bust count actually favours Salford, 24 to 19. Doesn't matter much when the other side is putting 1,405 metres into the ground against your 786. Leigh weren't fancy about it. They just kept the go-forward coming, backed it with five line breaks to Salford's four, and let field position do the rest.

The scoreboard reflects exactly that gap. Andrew Badrock opened the scoring inside the first minute, and by the 35th he'd doubled up for his second, sandwiched around tries to AJ Towse and Darnell McIntosh. By half-time equivalent in the ledger, Leigh were out to 18-0 and Salford hadn't laid a glove on the line. Matt Davis added a fifth try just after the break to push it to 24-0, and by the time Joe Shorrocks finally got Salford on the board in the 61st minute, the contest had long since been decided. Josh Charnley's try in the 78th was just the cherry on top.

What makes it sting a bit more for Salford is the shape of the pre-match numbers. They came in rated higher across forwards, backs, halves and hooker, the hooker gap in particular a landslide at 1,000 to 600. On paper that's a side built to control the middle of the field. On the night, none of it translated into go-forward, and Leigh's forward pack, rated lower at 826 to 884, still found 600-odd more metres than Salford managed.

Form lines had already flagged which way this one was trending. Leigh came in averaging 1,285.8 running metres a game across their last five, nearly double Salford's 763. Salford's average margin over that stretch was minus 21, Leigh's a much healthier minus 7.6. The gap in this match, 22 points, sits almost exactly where that form suggested it might, even if the competitive shape of the recent runs (Salford's WLLLL against Leigh's LLDWW) hinted at something tighter.

Discipline was the one column Salford won clearly, conceding just 2 penalties to Leigh's 9. Didn't matter. Leigh had enough ball and enough metres that conceding penalties barely dented their control of the game.

Alphr's model called Leigh to win at 51 per cent and had the total right to within 6 points, tipping 40 against an actual 34. The margin was the miss: a projected 3.3-point win blew out to 22 in reality. Salford's forward and halves ratings looked competitive going in. On the pitch, Leigh's willingness to just run the footy up made all of that irrelevant.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 786 | Run metres | **1,405** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **24** | Tackle busts | 19 |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 6 | Errors | 6 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 9 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 2/6 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 9 |
| 6 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.3 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 34, within 6 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (41/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 2 · Leigh Leopards 9.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 50.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 3 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Salford Red Devils and Leigh Leopards. The model can't split them, landing on Leigh Leopards at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 262 ELO points clear, 1572 to 1309. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 3.3, with the two sides combining for about 40. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 9.4pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| -21.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 763.0m | Run Metres | 1285.8m |
| 2.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.8 |
| 242.6 | Tackles | 331.8 |
| 7.2 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 9.4 |
| Leigh Leopards | R4 D · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Leigh Leopards | 38 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 32 – 22 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 40 – 12 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 14 | Leigh Leopards |
| 2024 | R22 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the middle: Super League's 12th-ranked middle attack (0.38 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 7th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Nikorima, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Mcintosh, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.25/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.38/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.38/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.38/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.88/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 114m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 25 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 237m/g | 581m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 19.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 9 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 149m/g | 382m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 6.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.18) +11% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.23) +74% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.05 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.35 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Joe Mellor | HB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Davis | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Harvey Makin | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Hellewell | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Shorrocks | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.84 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 14 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Kai Morgan | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Toby Warren | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 1 in 7g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.12 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/14g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.99 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 3 | Andrew Badrock | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 1' 35' |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 12/14g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.51 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.78 AI 27% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben McNamara | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.94 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.83 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Wilde | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1309 · Leigh Leopards 1572 · ELO difference: 262 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)