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Super League | Round 9

alphr.com.au

SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • SATURDAY 26 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

628
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 51%

AI Win Probability

51%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Salford Red Devils

49%

Leigh Leopards

51%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Leigh Leopards a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. Leigh Leopards carry a 262-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1309). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.3 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.09

Winner ✓

Edge

-40.8%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -3.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7L
R8L

older → newer

9.4
Leigh Leopards
R4D
R5L
R6L
R7W
R8W
14.8

Avg Conceded

30.4

Salford Red Devils

22.4

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-21.0

Salford Red Devils

-7.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

763

Salford Red Devils

1286

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

2.0

Salford Red Devils

3.8

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
Aug 2025SAL 6 - 38 LEI
Feb 2024SAL 32 - 22 LEI
Feb 2024SAL 12 - 40 LEI
Feb 2024SAL 6 - 14 LEI
Aug 2024SAL 0 - 26 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1309Overall1572
LEI
ELO difference: -262 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

884Forwards826
Best: 1004SAL +58Best: 1198
775Backs699
Best: 888SAL +76Best: 766
963Halves952
Best: 963SAL +11Best: 952
1000Hooker600
SAL +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
LEI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
9.4pts
Avg Score
14.8pts
30.4pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
-21.0pts
Avg Margin
-7.6pts
763.0m
Run Metres
1285.8m
2.0
Clean Breaks
3.8
242.6
Tackles
331.8
7.2
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

51%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: -3.3

3/4 match predictions correct