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Super League | Round 9

alphr.com.au

AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • FRIDAY 25 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

1420
HKR

Hull KR

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 51%

AI Win Probability

51%Hull KRFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

49%

Hull KR

51%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Hull KR a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Hull KR carry a 186-point ELO rating advantage (1735 vs 1549). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 5.9 points with a combined total of 38.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.62

Winner ✓

Edge

-10.6%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -5.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W

older → newer

16.4
Hull KR
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7L
R8W
28.0

Avg Conceded

8.6

Leeds Rhinos

11.2

Hull KR

Avg Margin

7.8

Leeds Rhinos

16.8

Hull KR

Run Metres

1102

Leeds Rhinos

1322

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.2

Leeds Rhinos

5.4

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2
Mar 2026LEE 58 - 6 HKR
Aug 2025LEE 28 - 6 HKR
Jul 2025LEE 14 - 8 HKR
Sep 2024LEE 16 - 26 HKR
Jul 2024LEE 12 - 20 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1549Overall1735
HKR
ELO difference: -186 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

941Forwards816
Best: 1227LEE +125Best: 1072
991Backs972
Best: 1219LEE +19Best: 1175
913Halves973
Best: 913HKR +60Best: 973
929Hooker1107
HKR +178

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
HKR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
16.4pts
Avg Score
28.0pts
8.6pts
Avg Conceded
11.2pts
7.8pts
Avg Margin
16.8pts
1102.0m
Run Metres
1322.4m
3.2
Clean Breaks
5.4
296.0
Tackles
281.4
9.4
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

51%

Hull KR predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 38 · Line: -5.9

4/4 match predictions correct