# Leeds Rhinos v Hull KR — Super League Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 14 – 20 Hull KR

_Hull KR hold off a fast-finishing Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 49% / Hull KR 51% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 25 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Ash Handley (22' Tipped ⚡), Riley Lumb (46' Tipped ⚡) · Hull KR: Jack Broadbent (8' 1st), Jack Broadbent (68' 1st), James Batchelor (75'), Mikey Lewis (75' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 51% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 14–20 Hull KR in Super League Round 9 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Leeds Rhinos 20-14 at AMT Headingley Stadium, and on the surface that reads as a tight finish. One number says otherwise: Leeds led 14-6 with the clock past the hour mark. From there Hull KR scored 14 unanswered points, including two tries within the same minute, to steal it. Call it what it is: a collapse, not a nail-biter.

The first half was genuinely even. Jack Broadbent opened the scoring in the 8th minute, Ash Handley levelled it for Leeds at 22, and a Lachlan Miller penalty had the home side up 6-4 by the half-hour. Arthur Mourgue's penalty five minutes later squared it at 6-6, and that's how it stood at the break. Nothing in it, and nothing in the shot count either: both sides had given away 5 penalties and made 5 errors apiece by full time, a mirror image of discipline.

Leeds then did what good home sides are supposed to do. Riley Lumb crossed in the 46th minute, Miller's conversion made it 12-6, and another Miller penalty at 57 stretched it to 14-6. Eight points up, deep into the second half, at home. Then Broadbent grabbed his second at 68, and inside a wild two minutes either side of the 75th, James Batchelor and Mikey Lewis both crossed for Hull KR. Mourgue's conversion made it 14-20. Leeds went from cruising to beaten in about ten minutes.

The stat sheet doesn't fully explain that collapse, which is the interesting part. Leeds actually won the tackle bust count, 26 to 23, and the offload count, 9 to 7. Where Hull KR won, and won clearly, was in metres, 1,357 to 1,176, and line breaks, 5 to 3. Leeds created fewer chances but Hull KR finished more of theirs with someone through the line. That gap is what turned an even arm-wrestle into a four-try second-half salvage job.

It tracks with what each side brought into the game. Hull KR's hooker rating of 1,107 dwarfed Leeds' 929, and Mikey Lewis at dummy-half showed exactly why that number mattered when he scored the match-sealing try at 75 minutes. Hull KR's forwards, on paper, were rated well below Leeds' (816 to 941), but their halves (973 to 913) and hooker stocks gave them the direction to find the line when it counted late.

Form coming in backed Hull KR too. They'd won four of their last five, averaging 28 points a game to Leeds' 16.4, and had been running for 1,322 metres a match against Leeds' 1,102. Leeds arrived on a WLWLW-adjacent run of their own, three wins from five, but nothing in that history suggested they'd hold a big finish.

Alphr's model had Hull KR as 51% favourites and picked the margin at 5.9 points, almost exactly the 6-point gap that eventuated. The total score projection of 38 sat within four points of the actual 34. Model finished 5 from 15 on the match overall, but the shape of this one, a tight low-scoring arm-wrestle decided by a hot finish, was exactly what the numbers suggested was coming.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1,176 | Run metres | **1,357** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **26** | Tackle busts | 23 |
| **9** | Offloads | 7 |
| 5 | Errors | 5 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 3/4 | Goals | 2/5 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 5 | Errors | 5 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |
| 1 | Send Offs | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 5.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 34, within 4 points. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 5 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 51.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 6 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Leeds Rhinos and Hull KR. The model can't split them, landing on Hull KR at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 186 ELO points clear, 1735 to 1549. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leeds Rhinos.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 38. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.4pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 8.6pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | 16.8pts |
| 1102.0m | Run Metres | 1322.4m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 5.4 |
| 296.0 | Tackles | 281.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 16.4 |
| Hull KR | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Leeds Rhinos | 34 – 8 | Hull KR | Leeds Rhinos 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Hull KR | 6 – 58 | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR 71% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 28 – 6 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R17 | Hull KR | 8 – 14 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R27 | Hull KR | 26 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.38 conceded/game). Key man: Mcdonnell, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.13/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 95m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.7% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 9 | 21 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 325m/g | 272m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 93.5% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.23) +4%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 4/15g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.45 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 6/15g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 8/15g | 9/12g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.19 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 4/5g | 3/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.27 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.23 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jack Sinfield | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/6g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/14g | 2/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·4·0) | 2/5g | 2/16g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.83 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/15g | 1/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.85 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/11g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Peta Hiku | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.18 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | James Batchelor | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·1) | 6/15g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.40 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jack Broadbent | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 8' 68' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·3·0) | 2/5g | 1/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.55 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.19 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Bill Leyland | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1549 · Hull KR 1735 · ELO difference: 186 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)