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Super League | Round 9

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MKM STADIUM • SUNDAY 27 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1236
WIG

Wigan Warriors

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 73%

AI Win Probability

73%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Hull

27%

Wigan Warriors

73%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 332-point ELO rating advantage (1768 vs 1436). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Hull. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 10.0 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.28

Winner ✓

Edge

-4.8%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -10 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R4D
R5W
R6W
R7W
R8L

older → newer

20.8
Wigan Warriors
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W
R8W
32.0

Avg Conceded

18.4

Hull

11.2

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

2.4

Hull

20.8

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1102

Hull

1016

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

3.8

Hull

6.0

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Mar 2026HUL 6 - 34 WIG
Jul 2025HUL 32 - 12 WIG
Mar 2025HUL 4 - 46 WIG
Aug 2024HUL 4 - 22 WIG
Jul 2024HUL 24 - 22 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1436Overall1768
WIG
ELO difference: -332 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

805Forwards829
Best: 1110WIG +23Best: 1177
866Backs968
Best: 1043WIG +102Best: 1105
600Halves1139
Best: 600WIG +539Best: 1139
832Hooker636
HUL +196

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
WIG
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
20.8pts
Avg Score
32.0pts
18.4pts
Avg Conceded
11.2pts
2.4pts
Avg Margin
20.8pts
1102.2m
Run Metres
1016.2m
3.8
Clean Breaks
6.0
281.2
Tackles
311.4
8.0
Errors
7.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

73%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: -10.0

2/4 match predictions correct