# Hull FC v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 12 – 36 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors conquer Hull FC._

Half time: 12 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 27% / Wigan Warriors 73% · MKM Stadium · Sun, 27 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Will Pryce (11'), Harvey Barron (23') · Wigan Warriors: Bevan French (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (14' Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (33'), Jake Wardle (38' Tipped ⚡), Abbas Miski (44' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (64' 1st Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 73% | Won |
| Hull FC | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Hull FC 12–36 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 9 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors ran past Hull FC 36–12 at MKM Stadium. Leading 22–12 at half-time, Wigan Warriors pulled clear late.

Bevan French opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Will Pryce and Harvey Barron; Wigan Warriors scored through Bevan French (2), Jai Field, Junior Nsemba (2), Jake Wardle and Abbas Miski.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. Wigan Warriors led 12–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 73.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — model probability 73.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — model probability 73.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 36

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Hull FC | 16 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 79% ✓ |
| 2026 | R2 | Wigan Warriors | 34 – 6 | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors 80% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Wigan Warriors | 12 – 32 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Hull FC | 4 – 46 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.63 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.88 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 9th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.63/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.13/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.75/g (def 9th (weak)) | 2.88/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 7 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 19 | 30 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 397m/g | 532m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 83.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 380m/g | 354m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.15/g (lg 0.24) -37% · Halfbacks 0.08/g (lg 0.14) -43%
**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.17) +71% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 11' |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 6/13g | 38% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 3/19g | 2/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.86 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/15g | 47% | — | — |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/14g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.19 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.66 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Ashworth | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/13g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Ed Chamberlain | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Matty Laidlaw | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 10 in 7g | 14/10g (3·1·0·0·3·1·1·2·1·2) | 7/6g | 3/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.52 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.49 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.66 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.15 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 10/13g | 3/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 10/8g | 2/3g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.54 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 64' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam Walters | PR | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 18% | — | 🏉 33' 73' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Luke Thompson | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 2/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Zach Eckersley | INT | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)