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Super League | Round 9

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JOHN SMITH'S STADIUM • SATURDAY 26 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1230
CAS

Castleford Tigers

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 74%

AI Win Probability

74%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

74%

Castleford Tigers

26%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Recent form favours Castleford Tigers with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Huddersfield Giants. The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 6.6 points with a combined total of 33.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.35

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants +6.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R4L
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L

older → newer

11.2
Castleford Tigers
R4W
R5L
R6L
R7L
R8L
11.6

Avg Conceded

36.6

Huddersfield Giants

19.4

Castleford Tigers

Avg Margin

-25.4

Huddersfield Giants

-7.8

Castleford Tigers

Run Metres

592

Huddersfield Giants

884

Castleford Tigers

Clean Breaks

2.2

Huddersfield Giants

2.8

Castleford Tigers

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1
Mar 2026HUD 8 - 34 CAS
Jul 2025HUD 30 - 12 CAS
Feb 2024HUD 50 - 8 CAS
Sep 2024HUD 34 - 10 CAS
Aug 2024HUD 20 - 12 CAS
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1275Overall1269
CAS
ELO difference: +6 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

873Forwards868
Best: 1000EvenBest: 1023
706Backs842
Best: 776CAS +137Best: 957
819Halves814
Best: 819EvenBest: 814
1030Hooker1000
HUD +30

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
CAS
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
11.2pts
Avg Score
11.6pts
36.6pts
Avg Conceded
19.4pts
-25.4pts
Avg Margin
-7.8pts
592.4m
Run Metres
884.4m
2.2
Clean Breaks
2.8
245.8
Tackles
212.4
8.0
Errors
6.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Giants
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Tigers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Tigers
5
Halves Control9.0%
Giants
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

74%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 33 · Line: +6.6

0/4 match predictions correct