# Catalans Dragons v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 24 – 20 Wakefield Trinity

_Catalans Dragons rally to torch Wakefield Trinity from 10 down._

Half time: 8 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 67% / Wakefield Trinity 33% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 26 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Benjamin Garcia (30'), Chris Satae (42'), Nick Cotric (71'), Reimis Smith (81' Tipped ⚡) · Wakefield Trinity: Max Jowitt (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Liam Hood (24' Tipped ⚡), Josh Griffin (39' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 67% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 24–20 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 9 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons were behind for most of this one, and by the 71st minute they were still level at best, but it's the last half hour that decided it. Chris Satae crossed four minutes into the second half to get them within four, Nick Cotric levelled things up at 18-18 in the 71st minute, and when Max Jowitt's penalty goal squared it again at 20-20 with three minutes left, Reimis Smith had the final say in the 81st. Final score: Catalans Dragons 24, Wakefield Trinity 20.

That finish flips the whole story of the match. Wakefield Trinity did the hard work early, building an 18-8 half-time lead through tries to Max Jowitt, Liam Hood and Josh Griffin, with Jowitt converting twice and opening the scoring himself in the 16th minute. Griffin's try just before the break, converted to make it 8-18, looked like the score that would put the game away. Instead, Catalans Dragons scored the last three tries of the match, through Satae, Cotric and Smith, and Wakefield Trinity had no answer.

The stat sheet explains why this was tight rather than one-sided in either direction. Wakefield Trinity were the better side with the ball for long stretches: 1,114 run metres to 854, 29 tackle busts to 19, and nine offloads to Catalans Dragons' three. By any measure of go-forward, they carried it further and broke more tackles doing it. But they also conceded 10 penalties to Catalans Dragons' four, and against a Catalans backline rated 1106 to 765 coming in, that kind of discipline gap was always going to cost them somewhere. Catalans Dragons, for their part, made more errors, eight to four, which makes the result more notable rather than less. They won despite losing both the metres battle and the ball-control count.

Benjamin Garcia got Catalans Dragons on the board first among their try scorers, crossing in the 30th minute to make it 4-12, with Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet's conversion and a penalty goal either side of half-time keeping them within touch at 8-18 by the break. From there it was a slow climb: Satae's try and conversion brought it to 14-18 early in the second half, before the long gap to Cotric's leveller in the 71st and Smith's match-winner ten minutes later.

Alphr's model had Catalans Dragons as 67% favourites pre-match, with a projected margin of 7 points and a combined total of 36. The actual margin came in at 4, and the total finished at 44, so the model's lean toward a Catalans Dragons win held even if the shape of the game, an early Wakefield Trinity lead overturned late, wasn't exactly what anyone would have called from kick-off.

The form line coming in supports the read too. Catalans Dragons arrived averaging 25.2 points scored and just 9.2 conceded across their last five, with an average winning margin of 16. Wakefield Trinity's equivalent numbers, 21.8 scored and 16.8 conceded with only a 5-point average margin, suggested a team capable of scoring but leaking almost as much. On this night, that pattern played out almost exactly: Wakefield Trinity piled on plenty of ball and metres, but couldn't keep Catalans Dragons quiet when it mattered.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 854 | Run metres | **1,114** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **29** |
| 3 | Offloads | **9** |
| 8 | Errors | **4** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 10 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 4/4 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 10 |
| 8 | Errors | 4 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 67% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Catalans Dragons by 7.0 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Catalans Dragons trailed 8–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–20. The model went 7/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (50/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 4 · Wakefield Trinity 10.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 67.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 7 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Catalans Dragons here: 67% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 28 ELO points clear, 1497 to 1470. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Wakefield Trinity.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 36. Catalans Dragons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 9.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 816.0m | Run Metres | 1085.2m |
| 2.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.0 |
| 184.8 | Tackles | 312.6 |
| 5.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 25.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 58 – 10 | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 44 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2023 | R25 | Wakefield Trinity | 10 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Catalans Dragons | 36 – 6 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 8th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Makinson, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 6th there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.38/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) | 0.38/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 6th) | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.38/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.38/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 6 | 4 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 30m/g | 83m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 8 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 424m/g | 403m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 80.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 4 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 305m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 95.6% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.14) +86% · Wingers 1.37/g (lg 0.86) +59% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0% · Hookers 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 7/8g | 5/8g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.30 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 3/13g | 23% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.73 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.48 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 81' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 30' |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 7/45g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.42 AI 22% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $34.30 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/34g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/18g | 12% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 16 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/29g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Bayley Sironen | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Cameron Scott | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 8/10g | 21/25g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.59 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Max Jowitt | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.67 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.99 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/8g | 10/38g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.86 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.87 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (3·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 1/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.59 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.41 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Smith | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1497 · Wakefield Trinity 1470 · ELO difference: 28 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)