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Super League | Round 9

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 26 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

2420
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed Catalans Dragons at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

67%

Wakefield Trinity

33%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Catalans Dragons carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1497 vs 1470). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 7.0 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

-7.0%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W
R8W

older → newer

25.2
Wakefield Trinity
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7L
R8W
21.8

Avg Conceded

9.2

Catalans Dragons

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

16.0

Catalans Dragons

5.0

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

816

Catalans Dragons

1085

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

2.4

Catalans Dragons

4.0

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 3-2
May 2026CAT 10 - 58 WAK
Jul 2025CAT 6 - 44 WAK
Sep 2023CAT 18 - 10 WAK
Jun 2023CAT 36 - 6 WAK
Mar 2023CAT 38 - 24 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1497Overall1470
WAK
ELO difference: +28 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

994Forwards922
Best: 1183CAT +72Best: 1172
1106Backs765
Best: 1271CAT +341Best: 873
1000Halves1081
Best: 1000WAK +81Best: 1081
1000Hooker1083
WAK +83

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
WAK
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
25.2pts
Avg Score
21.8pts
9.2pts
Avg Conceded
16.8pts
16.0pts
Avg Margin
5.0pts
816.0m
Run Metres
1085.2m
2.4
Clean Breaks
4.0
184.8
Tackles
312.6
5.6
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

67%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: +7.0

3/4 match predictions correct