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Super League | Round 8

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 18 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

2414
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 81%

AI Win Probability

81%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

81%

St Helens

19%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1752 vs 1604). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 12.2 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.27

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.3%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +12.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R3W
R4W
R5L
R6W
R7W

older → newer

36.8
St Helens
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6W
R7W
17.6

Avg Conceded

13.2

Wigan Warriors

13.4

St Helens

Avg Margin

23.6

Wigan Warriors

4.2

St Helens

Run Metres

1142

Wigan Warriors

1207

St Helens

Clean Breaks

7.2

Wigan Warriors

3.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Apr 2026WIG 24 - 34 STH
Sep 2025WIG 18 - 4 STH
Feb 2024WIG 4 - 12 STH
Aug 2024WIG 20 - 0 STH
Jul 2024WIG 16 - 12 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1752Overall1604
STH
ELO difference: +148 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

988Forwards847
Best: 1365WIG +141Best: 1061
1246Backs1061
Best: 1291WIG +185Best: 1145
1185Halves961
Best: 1185WIG +225Best: 961
734Hooker1000
STH +266

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
STH
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
36.8pts
Avg Score
17.6pts
13.2pts
Avg Conceded
13.4pts
23.6pts
Avg Margin
4.2pts
1141.6m
Run Metres
1206.8m
7.2
Clean Breaks
3.4
303.4
Tackles
277.6
8.8
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

81%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.2

3/4 match predictions correct