# Wigan Warriors v St Helens — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 24 – 14 St Helens

_Wigan Warriors go to war with St Helens._

Half time: 12 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 81% / St Helens 19% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 18 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Jai Field (28' 1st Tipped 🎯), Abbas Miski (33' Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (47' 1st Tipped 🎯), Abbas Miski (77' Tipped ⚡) · St Helens: Lewis Murphy (63'), Agnatius Paasi (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 81% | Won |
| St Helens | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.2 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Wigan Warriors 24–14 St Helens in Super League Round 8 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens carried the ball further. Wigan Warriors carried it smarter. That's the whole game in one line: 966 metres and five line breaks for Saints against 923 and two for Wigan, yet it was Wigan running out 24-14 winners at The Brick Community Stadium. Ambition without control only gets you so far.

The share of the ball tells part of the story. Wigan coughed it up eight times, Saints ten. Offloads went the other way, seven to four for St Helens, and tackle busts locked level at 29 apiece. St Helens looked the busier side with the ball in hand. Wigan looked like the side that knew what to do when it mattered.

The scoreboard moved in fits early. Harry Smith's penalty goal put Wigan up 2-0 inside seven minutes, and George Whitby levelled it with one of his own in the 22nd. Then Wigan found their gear. Jai Field crossed in the 28th minute, Smith converted, Abbas Miski went over five minutes later, and Wigan turned a two-point game into a ten-point lead, 12-2, by half-time.

That's roughly how the pre-match numbers pointed too. Wigan's forwards (988) and backs (1246) rated well clear of Saints' pack (847) and backline (1061), and the halves gap was just as stark, 1185 to 961. St Helens' one edge on paper was at hooker, 1000 to 734, and it showed up in a busier, more expansive kicking and running game that never quite turned into points.

Field's second try in the 47th minute and Smith's conversion pushed it to 18-2, and for a stretch this had the shape of a rout. St Helens had other ideas. Lewis Murphy scored in the 63rd, Whitby's boot made it 18-8, and Agnatius Paasi followed up in the 72nd to bring Saints within four at 18-14. For about seven minutes, this one was live.

Wigan shut the door. Miski's second try in the 77th, Smith's conversion, and it was 24-14. Miski finished with a double, Field with a double, Smith perfect off the tee with three from three. St Helens' discipline was actually tidier all night, conceding just two penalties to Wigan's five, but field position and line breaks don't count for much if you can't finish the sets that matter.

The form lines pointed this way before kickoff. Wigan came in averaging 36.8 points a game across their last five with a margin of 23.6, while St Helens sat at 17.6 and 4.2. Wigan had won four of their last five (WWLWW), Saints three (WLLWW). Saints had even out-run Wigan on average across that stretch, 1206.8 metres to 1141.6, which is exactly what turned up again here. Running hard isn't the same as running smart.

Alphr's model had Wigan at 81 per cent to win, with an expected margin of 12.2 points on a combined total of 43. The actual margin was 10 and the actual total was 38, both comfortably within range. The model landed the 1-12 margin band and finished 5 from 15 on the match overall, a clean read on a game that played out much as the numbers suggested it would.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 923 | Run metres | **966** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 29 | Tackle busts | 29 |
| 4 | Offloads | **7** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 10 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wigan Warriors by 12.2 vs the actual margin of 10 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (39/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 5 · St Helens 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 81.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 12 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 81% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 148 ELO points clear, 1752 to 1604. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 12.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.8pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 13.4pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Margin | 4.2pts |
| 1141.6m | Run Metres | 1206.8m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.4 |
| 303.4 | Tackles | 277.6 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R3 W · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 36.8 |
| St Helens | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 16 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 76% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wigan Warriors | 16 – 14 | St Helens | Wigan Warriors 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | St Helens | 34 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 58% ✗ |
| 2025 | R25 | St Helens | 4 – 18 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 12 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.43 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.71/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.29/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 6th) | 1.57/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.29/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 9 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 198m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 7 | 17 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 552m/g | 474m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.7/g | 19/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 80.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 355m/g | 362m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.36) -6% · Five-Eighths 0.14/g (lg 0.18) -22% · Wingers 0.66/g (lg 0.86) -23%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.15/g (lg 0.23) -35% · Halfbacks 0.08/g (lg 0.14) -43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 8 in 6g | 12/10g (0·3·1·0·0·3·1·1·2·1) | 3/6g | 32/38g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.29 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.30 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 28' 47' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 28/27g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 77' |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 6/15g | 33% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·3·1) | 1/5g | 16/33g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.83 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.12 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 4 in 7g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 6/14g | 44/54g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.11 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 12/54g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 5 in 7g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 7/7g | 47/41g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.86 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.32 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/50g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 3/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam Walters | PR | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 3/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 21/52g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/38g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Brad O'Neill | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/28g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Tom Forber | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 6% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 6 in 7g | 6/7g (4·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.42 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.51 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matt Whitley | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/17g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/16g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (1·3·1·4·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.92 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | George Whitby | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Moses Mbye | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Daryl Clark | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/24g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Dayon Sambou | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1752 · St Helens 1604 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)