Wakefield Trinity
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Wakefield Trinity
77%
Castleford Tigers
23%
AI Match Overview
Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. Castleford Tigers are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 180-point ELO rating advantage (1459 vs 1280). Recent form favours Wakefield Trinity with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 12.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wakefield Trinity to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.5%
Line / Spread
Wakefield Trinity +12.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wakefield Trinity | R3L R4W R5L R6W R7L older → newer | 20.4 |
Castleford Tigers | R3L R4W R5L R6L R7L | 14.0 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Wakefield Trinity
24.4
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
0.8
Wakefield Trinity
-10.4
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1019
Wakefield Trinity
856
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
3.2
Wakefield Trinity
3.2
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
77%
Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.8