# Wakefield Trinity v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 13 – 12 Castleford Tigers

_Wakefield Trinity pip Castleford Tigers by a point._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 77% / Castleford Tigers 23% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Thu, 17 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Harvey Smith (59'), Max Jowitt (66' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Jason Qareqare (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Sam Wood (27'), Jason Qareqare (35' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 77% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 13–12 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 8 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight tackle busts to six. That's the number that explains how Wakefield Trinity beat Castleford Tigers 13-12 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium, because a side breaking tackles at that rate is going to find its way over the line eventually, even if it takes most of the game to get there.

And for a long stretch it looked like it wouldn't. Jason Qareqare opened the scoring in the 9th minute, Sam Wood added another in the 27th, and Qareqare doubled up in the 35th to put Castleford out to 12-0. Three tries, no reply, and a Wakefield outfit the model had tipped by 12.8 points looking like it had the maths backwards.

Then the second half turned into a different match. Harvey Smith scored in the 59th minute, Max Jowitt converted, and six minutes later Jowitt crossed himself and added the extras to level it at 12-12. From there the scoreboard settled at 13-12, Wakefield's final margin, the smallest kind of win but a win all the same.

The stat sheet backs up why that comeback was even possible. Wakefield ran for 1,276 metres to Castleford's 898, broke the line five times to one, and offloaded six times to three. That's not a team that got lucky late, that's a team that had been building pressure the whole game and finally cashed it in. Castleford's forward pack rated higher going in, 919 to 796, and their backs too, 922 to 874, but none of that showed up where it mattered most on the day.

Castleford were the tidier side, no argument there. Seven errors to Wakefield's thirteen, and just one penalty conceded against four. On a lot of days that discipline gap wins you the game. It didn't this time, because you can be as clean as you like with the ball, but if you're only running for 898 metres and busting six tackles all match, clean only gets you so far.

Form lines told a similar story coming in. Wakefield had been averaging 302.6 tackles a game across their last five to Castleford's 202.2, a gap that says plenty about the kind of defensive shift Wakefield were always going to bring, and it held up when the scoreboard needed it to.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,276** | Run metres | 898 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 6 |
| **6** | Offloads | 3 |
| 13 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 0/3 |
| 1 | Field Goals | 0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 1 |
| 13 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wakefield Trinity to win at 77% probability. The predicted margin of 12.8 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 25 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (58/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 4 · Castleford Tigers 1.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 77.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 13 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 77% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 180 ELO points clear, 1459 to 1280. Form leans Wakefield Trinity's way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

On paper Castleford Tigers shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Wakefield Trinity, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 12.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Wakefield Trinity to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 0.8pts | Avg Margin | -10.4pts |
| 1019.4m | Run Metres | 856.4m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 302.6 | Tackles | 202.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 5.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L | 20.4 |
| Castleford Tigers | R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 52 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Wakefield Trinity | 48 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | Wakefield Trinity 51% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Castleford Tigers | 0 – 34 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 26 – 22 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Castleford Tigers | 8 – 32 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 9th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Hood, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (0.57 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 7th there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Senior, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.43/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 7th) | 0.57/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.43/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 0.14/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 11th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 72m/g | 81m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.1/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 84.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 7 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 399m/g | 424m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.9/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.8% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 0 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 282m/g | 236m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.3% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.04) +175% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.14) +86% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 0.86) +57%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Cameron Scott | WG | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 10/13g | 1/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jay Pitts | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.87 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.68 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ky Rodwell | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (1·3·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.52 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Mathieu Cozza | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 15 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.64 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/7g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Jason Qareqare | WG | no games | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.11 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $25.11 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 35' |
| 6 | Rowan Milnes | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Daejarn Asi | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Okoro | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Muizz Mustapha | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Joe Westerman | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Judah Rimbu | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1459 · Castleford Tigers 1280 · ELO difference: 180 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r8-wakefield-trinity-v-castleford-tigers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)