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Super League | Round 8

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LEI

Leigh Leopards

1814
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 50%

AI Win Probability

50%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

50%

Warrington Wolves

50%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Leigh Leopards a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and H2H History, but Leigh Leopards counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.95

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.2%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +0.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards Draw @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R3W
R4D
R5L
R6L
R7W

older → newer

18.0
Warrington Wolves
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6W
R7L
17.2

Avg Conceded

20.8

Leigh Leopards

26.4

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

-2.8

Leigh Leopards

-9.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1284

Leigh Leopards

772

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

4.6

Leigh Leopards

2.0

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
Apr 2026LEI 6 - 42 WAR
Sep 2025LEI 34 - 12 WAR
Jul 2025LEI 20 - 16 WAR
Feb 2024LEI 14 - 16 WAR
Aug 2024LEI 16 - 12 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1548), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.95).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1548Overall1562
WAR
ELO difference: -14 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

978Forwards877
Best: 1232LEI +101Best: 1164
857Backs897
Best: 1017WAR +40Best: 1089
892Halves613
Best: 892LEI +278Best: 613
1080Hooker600
LEI +480

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
WAR
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
17.2pts
20.8pts
Avg Conceded
26.4pts
-2.8pts
Avg Margin
-9.2pts
1283.6m
Run Metres
771.8m
4.6
Clean Breaks
2.0
324.0
Tackles
255.0
9.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

50%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: +0.6

3/4 match predictions correct