# Leigh Leopards v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 18 – 14 Warrington Wolves

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Warrington Wolves in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 50% / Warrington Wolves 50% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Sat, 19 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Edwin Ipape (33' 1st Tipped ⚡), Ethan O'Neill (43'), Frankie Halton (58') · Warrington Wolves: Toby King (61' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (68' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 50% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 50% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Leigh Leopards 18–14 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 8 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards beat Warrington Wolves 18-14 at Progress with Unity Stadium, and a four-point margin sounds like a scrap right to the final whistle. It wasn't, not until very late. Leigh led 18-2 with twelve minutes left. Warrington scored twice in the last nine minutes to make the board look respectable, and nothing more than that.

The shape of it: Marc Sneyd's penalty goal in the 8th minute was Warrington's only points for almost an hour. Edwin Ipape crossed in the 33rd to put Leigh 4-2 up, Gareth O'Brien added the extras, and from there Leigh scored three tries in a 25-minute stretch, Ipape, Ethan O'Neill and Frankie Halton, to go from 6-2 to 18-2. Warrington's reply, through Toby King in the 61st and Matty Ashton in the 68th, came after the contest was already decided.

The stat sheet backs up why Leigh could build that buffer. They ran for 1,209 metres to Warrington's 856, more than 350 metres of separation, and turned that into three line breaks against Warrington's one. That's the story of the middle of the game right there: field position and go-forward, then someone finishing it off.

Warrington were the tidier side in raw terms. Six errors to Leigh's eight, and they actually won the tackle bust count, 21 to 19. None of it mattered without go-forward to back it up, and it explains why the visitors never looked like controlling the game even while playing the cleaner footy.

Discipline is the odd one in the ledger. Leigh conceded nine penalties to Warrington's zero, which is a lopsided number for a side that won by four. It's the sort of stat that should worry a coach even in victory, and it's a big part of why what should have been a comfortable margin turned tense in the last quarter.

The positional numbers pre-match pointed straight at the hooker channel, Leigh's 1080 rating there against Warrington's 600, and Ipape both opened the scoring and backed up with a second. Leigh's halves edge, 892 to 613, showed up in the general shape of the win too. Warrington's one advantage on paper was out back, 897 to 857, and it's no coincidence their two tries came from King and Ashton in the backline.

Form lined up with the run-metre gap as well. Leigh came in averaging 1283.6 metres a game across their last five to Warrington's 771.8, and today's near 350-metre split fits that pattern neatly.

Alphr's model had this one basically a coin toss, Leigh favoured by just 0.6 points on a combined total of 37. The pick landed, the margin call was sharp against the actual four points, and the total of 32 wasn't far off either. Warrington made the finish uncomfortable, but the trends that mattered, metres, breaks, the hooker mismatch, were obvious well before Ashton's try made it look closer than it was.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,209** | Run metres | 856 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 19 | Tackle busts | **21** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 8 | Errors | **6** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **0** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 9 | Penalties Conceded | 0 |
| 8 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 50% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leigh Leopards by 0.6 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Total score prediction of 37 was close to the actual 32, within 5 points. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (63/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 9 · Warrington Wolves 0.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 1 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Leigh Leopards and Warrington Wolves. The model can't split them, landing on Leigh Leopards at 50%.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1283.6m | Run Metres | 771.8m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 324.0 | Tackles | 255.0 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R3 W · R4 D · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W | 18.0 |
| Warrington Wolves | R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 57% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | Leigh Leopards 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Warrington Wolves | 42 – 6 | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Leigh Leopards | 20 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 5th there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th) | 1.14/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.71/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 8th) | 0.57/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.43/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 130m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 90.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 7 | 14 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 603m/g | 282m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.4/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 83.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 0 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 374m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.3% | 94.2% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.23) +17% · Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Five-Eighths 0.2/g (lg 0.18) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.52 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/13g | 5/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.56 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bailey Hodgson | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/6g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 22/25g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.85 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/29g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 4/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/24g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.19 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/5g | 3/17g | 18% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 17% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/26g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Hughes | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/23g | 8% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.84 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.24 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.22 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 5 in 5g | 16/10g (1·3·3·2·2·1·0·1·1·2) | 4/4g | 1/2g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.21 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.75 AI 29% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Danny Walker | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Powell | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Zane Musgrove | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1548), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.95). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1548 · Warrington Wolves 1562 · ELO difference: 14 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)