Leigh Leopards
Warrington Wolves
AI Win Probability
Leigh Leopards
50%
Warrington Wolves
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Leigh Leopards a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Warrington Wolves are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and H2H History, but Leigh Leopards counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leigh Leopards to Win @1.95
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.2%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards +0.6 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leigh Leopards | R3W R4D R5L R6L R7W older → newer | 18.0 |
Warrington Wolves | R3L R4L R5W R6W R7L | 17.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.8
Leigh Leopards
26.4
Warrington Wolves
Avg Margin
-2.8
Leigh Leopards
-9.2
Warrington Wolves
Run Metres
1284
Leigh Leopards
772
Warrington Wolves
Clean Breaks
4.6
Leigh Leopards
2.0
Warrington Wolves
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warrington Wolves hold the ELO advantage (1562 vs 1548), but the market favours Leigh Leopards (@1.95).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 37 · Line: +0.6