# Leeds Rhinos v Huddersfield Giants — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 28 – 6 Huddersfield Giants

_Leeds Rhinos stampede past Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 6 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 87% / Huddersfield Giants 13% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Fri, 18 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Lachlan Miller (30' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kallum Watkins (44' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (53' Tipped ⚡), Jake Connor (60'), Ryan Hall (64' Tipped ⚡) · Huddersfield Giants: Thomas Burgess (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 87% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 13% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.5 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Huddersfield Giants Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 28–6 Huddersfield Giants in Super League Round 8 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points to nil at the break told you Leeds Rhinos were in front. It didn't tell you they were about to run away with it.

Lachlan Miller's try in the 30th minute, converted two minutes later, was the difference at half-time. One try, one goal, and Huddersfield Giants still in the contest. Whatever containing they'd managed for the first half fell apart almost immediately after the resumption.

Kallum Watkins crossed in the 44th minute to make it 10-0, and from there Leeds simply didn't stop. Ash Handley in the 53rd, Jake Connor in the 60th, Ryan Hall in the 64th. Four tries in twenty minutes turned a tight six-point half-time lead into a 28-0 canter, with Miller slotting the conversions each time. Thomas Burgess got a late one back for Huddersfield in the 74th, George Flanagan added the extras, and that was the entire scoreboard contribution from the visitors all night.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Leeds ran for 1,179 metres to Huddersfield's 658, nearly double, and it showed up everywhere else too: six line breaks to two, 30 tackle busts to 15, 13 offloads to Huddersfield's two. That's not a team edging it, that's a team playing an entirely different game. Errors were level at 10 apiece, and Huddersfield actually won the penalty count, conceding just three to Leeds' six. Didn't matter. You can't out-discipline a side that's running through you at will.

The positional numbers pointed this way before kick-off. Leeds held the edge everywhere that counts in attack, backs rated at 950 against 809, halves at 1222 against 1047, and it was the halves and backline doing the damage once the game opened up in the second half. Huddersfield's forwards actually rated marginally higher, 877 to 873, but a good pack means less when the other side keeps finding space out wide.

Form lines told the same story. Leeds arrived off three wins from five, averaging 18.4 points scored and just 12.2 conceded. Huddersfield came in on five straight losses, shipping an average of 33.2 points a game. Nothing about Friday night broke that pattern, it just confirmed it.

Alphr's model had Leeds at 87 percent to win with a expected margin of 12.5, on combined ratings of 1535 to 1290. The lean was right, and the actual margin, 22 points, landed inside the 13-24 band the model was working with. The final scoreline ran a bit hotter than the central number suggested, but nobody watching the third quarter would call that a surprise.

Huddersfield leave Headingley with one line in the box score worth keeping, Burgess's try, and not much else. Leeds leave with a statement performance that started as a six-point squeak and finished as a rout.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| **1,179** | Run metres | 658 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **30** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| **13** | Offloads | 2 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 6 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 87% probability. The predicted margin of 12.5 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. Leeds Rhinos led 6–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 13-24 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 6 · Huddersfield Giants 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 87.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 13 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 87% to see off Huddersfield Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 245 ELO points clear, 1535 to 1290. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 12.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 12.0pts |
| 12.2pts | Avg Conceded | 33.2pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -21.2pts |
| 1133.6m | Run Metres | 666.2m |
| 3.2 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 294.2 | Tackles | 238.0 |
| 8.8 | Errors | 7.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R3 W · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 18.4 |
| Huddersfield Giants | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 12.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Leeds Rhinos | 52 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants | Leeds Rhinos 83% ✓ |
| 2026 | R8 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 56 | Leeds Rhinos | Huddersfield Giants 54% ✗ |
| 2025 | R25 | Huddersfield Giants | 0 – 26 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 24 – 30 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R19 | Huddersfield Giants | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Mcdonnell, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Lolohea, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.29/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.14/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.71/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.29/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.57/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 10th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 96m/g | 65m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.9% | 91.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 9 | 5 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 496m/g | 292m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Huddersfield Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 330m/g | 137m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 93.3% |

**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.52/g (lg 0.36) +44% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 0.86) +37% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/14g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.82 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.93 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.77 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/14g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 13/19g | 8/11g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.94 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 9/14g | 2/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 7 | Matt Frawley | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Holroyd | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·4) | 2/5g | 2/15g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.47 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.52 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/5g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | James Bentley | INT | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Kallum Watkins | INT | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/18g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.99 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aidan McGowan | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Connor Carr | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Bibby | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Liam Sutcliffe | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Sam Halsall | WG | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.76 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.70 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | George Flanagan | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Jacob Gagai | HB | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 8 | Oliver Wilson | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Burgess | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Hewitt | 2R | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Taane Milne | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Algar | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Archie Sykes | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bibby | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Billington | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1535 · Huddersfield Giants 1290 · ELO difference: 245 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 87%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)