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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Thu 17 Apr10:00am
WAKWAK
CASCAS
Fri 18 Apr10:00am
HULHUL
HKRHKR
Fri 18 Apr10:00am
WIGWIG
STHSTH
Fri 18 Apr10:00am
LEELEE
HUDHUD
Sat 19 Apr10:00am
LEILEI
WARWAR
Sat 19 Apr10:00am
CATCAT
SALSAL
HUL
Hull
VS
HKR
Hull KR
MKM STADIUM • FRIDAY 18 APR, 10:00 AM AEST

Win Probability

Full Time
14
28

Scoring Breakdown

HullKR
2Tries4
1/3Goals4/5
5Penalties Conceded10
9Errors10
1Send Offs0
3Line Breaks6
22Tackle Busts38
6Offloads8
1031Metres1269

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

Hull had a slight +5 penalty edge, but the overall balance was acceptable. No significant concerns.

PENS5 – 10
ERR9 – 10

AI Game Review

Hull KR defied the model's 78% prediction for Hull, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Hull KR Full-time 14–28 · swing -20% KR
HUL14
1%80'99%
28HUL
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Hull KR momentumMomentum -14Hull momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

78%HullFavourite

Hull

78%

Hull KR

22%

✨

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull KR. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Hull counter with Backline Quality which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 278-point ELO rating advantage (1725 vs 1447). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 7.7 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Hull KR -7.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R3W
R4D
R5W
R6W
R7W

older → newer

20.2
Hull KR
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7L
30.8

Avg Conceded

14.8

Hull

8.4

Hull KR

Avg Margin

5.4

Hull

22.4

Hull KR

Run Metres

1140

Hull

1263

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.4

Hull

5.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Sep 2025HUL 4 - 18 HKR
Feb 2024HUL 10 - 34 HKR
Jul 2024HUL 10 - 24 HKR
Mar 2024HUL 0 - 22 HKR
Feb 2023HUL 0 - 40 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1725 vs 1447), but the market favours Hull (@1.30).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1447Overall1725
HKR
ELO difference: -278 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

782Forwards872
Best: 1071HKR +90Best: 1130
956Backs839
Best: 1153HUL +117Best: 947
720Halves1120
Best: 720HKR +400Best: 1120
643Hooker865
HKR +221

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
HKR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
20.2pts
Avg Score
30.8pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
8.4pts
5.4pts
Avg Margin
22.4pts
1140.4m
Run Metres
1262.6m
3.4
Clean Breaks
5.8
290.2
Tackles
261.2
7.4
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

78%

Hull predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: -7.7

2/4 match predictions correct