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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

HUL
Hull
VS
MKM STADIUM • FRIDAY 18 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HUL

Hull

1428
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%HullFavourite

Hull

78%

Hull KR

22%

AI Match Overview

Hull are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull KR. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control, but Hull counter with Backline Quality which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 278-point ELO rating advantage (1725 vs 1447). The margin model predicts Hull KR by 7.7 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.8%

Line / Spread

Hull KR -7.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R3W
R4D
R5W
R6W
R7W

older → newer

20.2
Hull KR
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6W
R7L
30.8

Avg Conceded

14.8

Hull

8.4

Hull KR

Avg Margin

5.4

Hull

22.4

Hull KR

Run Metres

1140

Hull

1263

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

3.4

Hull

5.8

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026HUL 6 - 24 HKR
Sep 2025HUL 4 - 18 HKR
Feb 2024HUL 10 - 34 HKR
Jul 2024HUL 10 - 24 HKR
Mar 2024HUL 0 - 22 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1725 vs 1447), but the market favours Hull (@1.30).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1447Overall1725
HKR
ELO difference: -278 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

782Forwards872
Best: 1071HKR +90Best: 1130
956Backs839
Best: 1153HUL +117Best: 947
720Halves1120
Best: 720HKR +400Best: 1120
643Hooker865
HKR +221

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
HKR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
20.2pts
Avg Score
30.8pts
14.8pts
Avg Conceded
8.4pts
5.4pts
Avg Margin
22.4pts
1140.4m
Run Metres
1262.6m
3.4
Clean Breaks
5.8
290.2
Tackles
261.2
7.4
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

78%

Hull predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: -7.7

2/4 match predictions correct