# Hull FC v Hull KR — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 14 – 28 Hull KR

_Hull KR spring past Hull FC._

Half time: 4 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 22% / Hull KR 78% · MKM Stadium · Fri, 18 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Jack Ashworth (23'), Tom Briscoe (49' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Rapana (57') · Hull KR: Oliver Gildart (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Peta Hiku (18'), Arthur Mourgue (37'), James Batchelor (64'), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 78% | Won |
| Hull FC | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Hull FC 14–28 Hull KR in Super League Round 8 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR beat Hull FC 28–14 at MKM Stadium. Hull KR led 16–4 at half-time and held on.

Oliver Gildart opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Jack Ashworth, Tom Briscoe and Jordan Rapana; Hull KR scored through Oliver Gildart, Peta Hiku, Arthur Mourgue, James Batchelor and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 78% probability. The predicted margin of 7.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. The model went 4/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 77.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — model probability 77.7% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — model probability 77.7% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 8 · Predicted total: 40

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Hull FC | 20 – 34 | Hull KR | Hull KR 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R17 | Hull KR | 26 – 12 | Hull FC | Hull KR 70% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | Hull KR 79% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Hull KR | 18 – 4 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 34 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 3 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 2nd there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.29 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 10th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 5th) | 1.29/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 10th (weak)) | 2.29/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.86/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.57/g (def 6th) | 1.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.29/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 143m/g | 153m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 16 | 18 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 408m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 14.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.8% | 80.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 0 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 386m/g | 276m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 93% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.11) +9% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.23) +9% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%
**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/15g | 1/10g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 57' |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 7/14g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.83 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 1/13g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.37 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 17 | Sam Eseh | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 1/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 12/14g | 3/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.02 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 38% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0) | 4/11g | 0/3g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.56 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 7 in 5g | 10/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·3) | 7/6g | 3/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.53 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.89 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 67' |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)