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Super League | Round 8

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 19 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

3810
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Catalans Dragons at 71%

AI Win Probability

71%Catalans DragonsFavourite

Catalans Dragons

71%

Salford Red Devils

29%

AI Match Overview

Catalans Dragons are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Catalans Dragons carry a 136-point ELO rating advantage (1472 vs 1336). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 10.1 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Catalans Dragons to Win @1.07

Winner ✓

Edge

-22.6%

Line / Spread

Catalans Dragons +10.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R3L
R4W
R5W
R6L
R7W

older → newer

18.8
Salford Red Devils
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6L
R7L
7.4

Avg Conceded

14.0

Catalans Dragons

31.2

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

4.8

Catalans Dragons

-23.8

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

797

Catalans Dragons

723

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

1.8

Catalans Dragons

1.8

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Catalans Dragons lead 4-1
Sep 2025CAT 17 - 16 SAL
Sep 2024CAT 12 - 27 SAL
Jul 2024CAT 20 - 0 SAL
Sep 2023CAT 19 - 8 SAL
Jul 2023CAT 42 - 0 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1472Overall1336
SAL
ELO difference: +136 in favour of Catalans Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

898Forwards852
Best: 1113CAT +47Best: 1021
964Backs826
Best: 1201CAT +138Best: 976
1000Halves908
Best: 1000CAT +92Best: 908
1000Hooker1019
SAL +19

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
SAL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.8pts
Avg Score
7.4pts
14.0pts
Avg Conceded
31.2pts
4.8pts
Avg Margin
-23.8pts
797.4m
Run Metres
723.0m
1.8
Clean Breaks
1.8
200.2
Tackles
242.2
6.2
Errors
7.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Dragons
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%
Dragons

Model Confidence

71%

Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +10.1

3/4 match predictions correct