# Catalans Dragons v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 8 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 38 – 10 Salford Red Devils

_Catalans Dragons run riot over Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 71% / Salford Red Devils 29% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 19 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Tommy Makinson (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Tariq Sims (9'), Julian Bousquet (15' Tipped ⚡), Chris Satae (42'), Tommy Makinson (53' 1st Tipped ⚡), Matthieu Laguerre (59'), Tommy Makinson (79' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Salford Red Devils: Jonny Vaughan (67'), Tiaki Chan (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 71% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 29% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 8 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:12 pm_

Catalans Dragons 38–10 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 8 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Catalans Dragons found 858 running metres and needed every one of them less than Salford Red Devils needed their 624. That's the story of this one in a nutshell: Salford ran hard, carried the ball into space, racked up 20 tackle busts to Catalans' 21, almost matched them for physical effort. But they gave the ball away 8 times to Catalans' 4, and against a side building leads, that's the difference between a competitive scoreline and a 28-point beating.

The scoreboard read 38-10 to Catalans Dragons at Stade Gilbert Brutus, and it was 16-0 at the break before Salford troubled the scorers at all. Tommy Makinson opened the account in the 4th minute, Tariq Sims followed in the 9th, and by the 17th minute, with Julian Bousquet over and Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet's boot doing its job, it was already 16-0. Salford had no answer in that opening stretch, and by half-time the game had more or less been decided.

The second half just confirmed it. Chris Satae crossed inside three minutes of the restart, Makinson added his second in the 53rd, Matthieu Laguerre got in on it by the 59th, and suddenly it was 32-0 with barely twenty minutes to play. Salford's response, when it came, was too late to matter: Jonny Vaughan in the 67th, Tiaki Chan in the 76th, Ryan Brierley's conversion making it 32-10. Makinson wrapped up his hat-trick in the 79th minute for good measure, because why not.

Makinson finished with three tries, and it's not hard to see why. Catalans held clear positional edges across the backline (964 to 826) and in the halves (1000 to 908), and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: five line breaks to two, and the kind of quick-strike tries that come from having space to work with rather than metres to grind out.

Salford's issue wasn't effort. They matched Catalans for tackle busts and weren't far off for offloads, 5 to 6. But 8 errors is a lot of ball to spill against a team this clinical, and their form coming in (one win from five, conceding an average of 31.2 points a game) suggested exactly this kind of defensive night was on the cards. Catalans, by contrast, arrived on the back of three wins from five and a scoring average of 18.8, and they nearly doubled that here.

Alphr's model backed Catalans at 71 percent and had them winning by 10.1 points on a total near 41. The head-to-head call was right. The margin wasn't close: Catalans won by 28, not 10, and the model finished 3 from 15 on this one. Discipline told part of the story too, Catalans conceding just 3 penalties to Salford's 4, one more small edge in a match with plenty of them.

Salford will look at the running metres and the tackle busts and wonder how a side working that hard finished with three converted tries. Ball control is the answer. Catalans played patient, ran clean, and let the errors column do the damage for them.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **858** | Run metres | 624 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **21** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| **6** | Offloads | 5 |
| **4** | Errors | 8 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 4 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Catalans Dragons led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (11/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Salford Red Devils 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 70.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 10 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Catalans Dragons here: 71% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 136 ELO points clear, 1472 to 1336. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Catalans Dragons to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 7.4pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 31.2pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Margin | -23.8pts |
| 797.4m | Run Metres | 723.0m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 1.8 |
| 200.2 | Tackles | 242.2 |
| 6.2 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 18.8 |
| Salford Red Devils | R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L | 7.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R25 | Salford Red Devils | 16 – 17 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R25 | Salford Red Devils | 27 – 12 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2024 | R17 | Catalans Dragons | 20 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R27 | Salford Red Devils | 8 – 19 | Catalans Dragons |
| 2023 | R20 | Catalans Dragons | 42 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.43 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.43 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 3rd there (0.43 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.43/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.14/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.57/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 5th) | 0.29/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.43/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.43/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 6 | 2 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 35m/g | 107m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 1 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 428m/g | 243m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 11.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 153m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.4/g (lg 0.23) +74% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.18) +50% · Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Props 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 2/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.68 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 53' 79' |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/12g | 19% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 4 | Fouad Yaha | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.06 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.53 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.23 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Theo Fages | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 6/44g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.63 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 9' |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/33g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.14 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/17g | 8% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 16 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.27 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.21 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 5 | Jake Thewlis | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.37 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.97 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kai Morgan | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 1/7g | 23% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Mellor | HK | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Tiaki Chan | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/10g | 4% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 11 | Ben Hellewell | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 14 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Makin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Shorrocks | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1472 · Salford Red Devils 1336 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:12 UTC (latest tip update)