# Warrington Wolves v Hull FC — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 16 – 28 Hull FC

_Hull FC outmuscle Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 4 – 26 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 62% / Hull FC 38% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sat, 12 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: George Williams (34'), Josh Thewlis (47' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (60' Tipped ⚡), Matty Ashton (67' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Tom Briscoe (11' 1st), Davy Litten (15'), Tom Briscoe (20' 1st), Herman Ese'ese (29' Tipped ⚡), Davy Litten (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 62% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.6 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Warrington Wolves 16–28 Hull FC in Super League Round 7 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC beat Warrington Wolves 28–16 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Hull FC led 26–4 at half-time and held on.

Tom Briscoe opened the scoring; Warrington Wolves crossed through George Williams, Josh Thewlis and Matty Ashton (2); Hull FC scored through Tom Briscoe (2), Davy Litten (2) and Herman Ese'ese.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 62% prediction for Warrington Wolves, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 61.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — model probability 61.8% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — model probability 61.8% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 9 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 62%, but Hull FC stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 207 ELO points clear, 1608 to 1402.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 8.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 17.6pts | Avg Score | 15.4pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -5.4pts |
| 798.4m | Run Metres | 1124.6m |
| 1.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 271.4 | Tackles | 304.0 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W | 17.6 |
| Hull FC | R2 L · R3 W · R4 D · R5 W · R6 W | 15.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Hull FC | 14 – 16 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 62% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Warrington Wolves | 12 – 4 | Hull FC | Warrington Wolves 82% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Hull FC | 34 – 2 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 6 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.5/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) | 1.17/g (att 5th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 8th) | 0.67/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 136m/g | 157m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 10 | 9 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 295m/g | 441m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 4 | 5 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 249m/g | 375m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.24) +13% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 19/39g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.63 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Ben Currie | CE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 13/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.38 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.04 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 3 in 4g | 15/10g (1·1·3·3·2·2·1·0·1·1) | 5/8g | 35/41g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.62 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.54 AI 30% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' 67' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/17g | 11/35g | 34% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 8 | Zane Musgrove | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 9/49g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/26g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 13% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | James Harrison | LK | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/19g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/21g | 3/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/41g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Pryce | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 2/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 11' 20' |
| 3 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Davy Litten | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 15' 39' |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.16 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.41 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.87 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Zak Hardaker | 2R | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Logan Moy | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Yusuf Aydin | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Eseh | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1608 · Hull FC 1402 · ELO difference: 207 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)