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Super League | Round 7

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SATURDAY 12 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1628
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Warrington Wolves at 62%

AI Win Probability

62%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

62%

Hull

38%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Hull are far from out of this at 38%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Warrington Wolves carry a 207-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1402). The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 8.6 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.20

Lost ✗

Edge

-21.5%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +8.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R2W
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6W

older → newer

17.6
Hull
R2L
R3W
R4D
R5W
R6W
15.4

Avg Conceded

23.2

Warrington Wolves

20.8

Hull

Avg Margin

-5.6

Warrington Wolves

-5.4

Hull

Run Metres

798

Warrington Wolves

1125

Hull

Clean Breaks

1.2

Warrington Wolves

3.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 4-1
Sep 2025WAR 2 - 34 HUL
Jun 2025WAR 24 - 10 HUL
Feb 2024WAR 24 - 6 HUL
Jun 2024WAR 24 - 18 HUL
Mar 2024WAR 36 - 10 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1608Overall1402
HUL
ELO difference: +207 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

822Forwards862
Best: 1000HUL +39Best: 1222
881Backs1008
Best: 1068HUL +127Best: 1200
769Halves909
Best: 769HUL +140Best: 909
636Hooker685
HUL +49

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
HUL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
17.6pts
Avg Score
15.4pts
23.2pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
-5.6pts
Avg Margin
-5.4pts
798.4m
Run Metres
1124.6m
1.2
Clean Breaks
3.0
271.4
Tackles
304.0
7.0
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

62%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +8.6

1/4 match predictions correct