# St Helens v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 26 – 14 Wakefield Trinity

_St Helens march all over Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 86% / Wakefield Trinity 14% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 11 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Morgan Knowles (4' 1st), Matt Whitley (13'), Harry Robertson (20' Tipped ⚡), Matt Whitley (52') · Wakefield Trinity: Oliver Pratt (59'), Mason Lino (66'), Oliver Pratt (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 86% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.0 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

St Helens 26–14 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 7 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-nil at the break, and St Helens weren't just ahead, they'd put the game to bed before most of the crowd had settled into their seats. Morgan Knowles got it started in the fourth minute, Matt Whitley crossed at the 13th, and Harry Robertson made it three tries in twenty minutes. George Whitby didn't miss with the boot either: two conversions and two penalty goals had it sitting at 20-0 by half-time. Wakefield Trinity hadn't so much as troubled the scoreboard.

The second half didn't flip that picture, but it did add some detail to it. Whitley grabbed his second in the 52nd minute to push it out to 26-0, and at that point the game looked over as a contest. Wakefield finally got on the board through Oliver Pratt in the 59th to make it 26-4, then Mason Lino crossed and converted in the 66th and 67th minutes to bring it to 26-10. Pratt grabbed his second in the 77th, and the final margin settled at 26-14, a 12-point gap. Three tries in the last twenty minutes is a proper response from Wakefield, but it came from too far back against too big a deficit to matter for the result.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreline suggests. St Helens ran for 1,054 metres to Wakefield's 890, broke the line four times to two, and were far cleaner with the ball, just 4 errors compared with Wakefield's 10. That error count probably matters more than any single line break. Giving the ball back ten times against a side that had already built a 20-point buffer is exactly how a manageable deficit turns into an unreachable one.

It wasn't a total mismatch in the collision, either. Wakefield actually edged the offload count, 12 to 11, and were within a single bust of St Helens on tackle busts, 21 to 22. St Helens also held the discipline edge, conceding 5 penalties to Wakefield's 6. So the gap wasn't about who hit harder or offloaded better. It was about what each side did with their chances, and who coughed up the ball at the wrong time.

The numbers going in pointed at exactly this shape of contest. St Helens carried the stronger backline by some distance, 1048 to 766, and the better halves pairing too, 1204 to 985, and that's usually where a 20-point half-time lead comes from.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| **1,054** | Run metres | 890 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **22** | Tackle busts | 21 |
| 11 | Offloads | **12** |
| **4** | Errors | 10 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 4 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 86% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting St Helens by 13.0 vs the actual margin of 12 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 40, within 1 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (23/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Wakefield Trinity 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 85.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 13-24 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 13 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 86% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 103 ELO points clear, 1584 to 1480. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wakefield Trinity.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 13.0, with the two sides combining for about 41. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 11.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| 9.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1328.6m | Run Metres | 1028.8m |
| 5.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 279.0 | Tackles | 306.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W | 21.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 46 | St Helens | St Helens 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | St Helens | 18 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 50% ✗ |
| 2025 | R21 | Wakefield Trinity | 4 – 34 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R3 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 32 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 1st there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Johnstone, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.83/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 2 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 216m/g | 72m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 91.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 4 | 7 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 405m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 4 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 369m/g | 294m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.3% | 95.3% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.14) +93% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Wingers 1.39/g (lg 0.85) +64%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.36) -3% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.85) -21% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 6 in 6g | 6/6g (4·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 4/3g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.43 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.32 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 5 in 6g | 5/6g (2·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.39 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.01 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 4 | Matt Whitley | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 3/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 13' 52' |
| 5 | Lewis Murphy | WG | 1 in 1g | 11/10g (1·1·3·1·4·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/2g | 55% | — | — |
| 6 | George Whitby | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Welsby | HB | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 34/56g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.36 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 9/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Moses Mbye | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/47g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 7/30g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.14 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 15/42g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.37 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 4' |
| 14 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/33g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Dayon Sambou | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 27% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 59' 77' |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 9/15g | 5/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.23 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.96 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Jay Pitts | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/22g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Seth Nikotemo | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Renouf Atoni | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1584 · Wakefield Trinity 1480 · ELO difference: 103 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — St Helens predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r7-st-helens-v-wakefield-trinity
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)