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Super League | Round 7

alphr.com.au

THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 11 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
STH

St Helens

2614
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 86%

AI Win Probability

86%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

86%

Wakefield Trinity

14%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 103-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1480). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts St Helens by 13.0 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.26

Winner ✓

Edge

+6.5%

Line / Spread

St Helens +13 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 13-24 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5L
R6W

older → newer

21.6
Wakefield Trinity
R2L
R3L
R4W
R5L
R6W
20.0

Avg Conceded

11.8

St Helens

17.2

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

9.8

St Helens

2.8

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1329

St Helens

1029

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

5.0

St Helens

3.0

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
May 2026STH 18 - 12 WAK
Aug 2025STH 34 - 4 WAK
Mar 2025STH 26 - 6 WAK
Aug 2023STH 32 - 16 WAK
Apr 2023STH 38 - 0 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1584Overall1480
WAK
ELO difference: +103 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

849Forwards907
Best: 1121WAK +58Best: 1210
1048Backs766
Best: 1249STH +282Best: 877
1204Halves985
Best: 1204STH +219Best: 985
1000Hooker1084
WAK +84

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
WAK
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
21.6pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
11.8pts
Avg Conceded
17.2pts
9.8pts
Avg Margin
2.8pts
1328.6m
Run Metres
1028.8m
5.0
Clean Breaks
3.0
279.0
Tackles
306.4
9.4
Errors
10.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

86%

St Helens predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +13.0

2/4 match predictions correct