# Salford Red Devils v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Salford Red Devils 0 – 28 Leeds Rhinos

_Leeds Rhinos run riot over Salford Red Devils._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Salford Red Devils 45% / Leeds Rhinos 55% · Salford Community Stadium · Thu, 10 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Salford Red Devils: none · Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (21' 1st Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (41' 1st Tipped ⚡), James McDonnell (44' 1st Tipped ⚡), Lachlan Miller (66'), James McDonnell (75' 1st Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 55% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Salford Red Devils vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Salford Red Devils 0–28 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 7 at Salford Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Five minutes either side of the interval broke this open. Salford were down 0-6 at the 39th minute, a Lachlan Miller penalty the extent of the damage, still within a converted try of respectability. Then James McDonnell crossed in the 41st, Miller added the conversion moments later, and McDonnell was over again in the 44th. Three scores in five minutes, and 0-6 had become 0-16. Salford never got another sniff of a way back in.

Final score: Salford Red Devils 0, Leeds Rhinos 28, at Salford Community Stadium.

McDonnell finished with four tries, the last of them arriving in the 75th minute to complete the rout. Miller chipped in with a try of his own in the 66th and landed four goals from four attempts, a penalty and three conversions. Between them they accounted for every point Leeds put on the board, which says plenty about how ruthless the finishing was once the door opened.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock showed. Leeds ran for 1,242 metres to Salford's 634, nearly double, and turned that go-forward into four line breaks against none. Forty-three tackle busts to 14 is not really a contest, it is a home side that could not get its front-on defence set. Salford actually won the penalty count, conceding 4 to Leeds' 6, but discipline on its own was never going to plug holes that size out wide and in the ruck.

Errors were the other half of the story. Salford coughed the ball up 12 times to Leeds' 6, which on top of getting outmuscled in the collision meant they were forever defending off the back foot with no ball of their own to apply pressure. Offloads went the same way, 11 to 6 in Leeds' favour, evidence of a Rhinos forward pack that kept plays alive when Salford's own contact was going backwards.

What makes the gap harder to explain on paper is the positional read going in. Salford's halves were rated well clear, 1100 to 959, and their hooker even more so at 1137 to 905. Those are usually the areas that decide these things. The forward pack ratings actually had Salford ahead too, 961 to 892, yet it was Leeds who dominated the collision all afternoon. On the day, none of the on-paper edges showed up where it mattered.

Form lines pointed at exactly this kind of gap. Leeds came in averaging 19.2 points a game and conceding just 13.4, form of a side that wins the arm wrestle most weeks. Salford were averaging 8.6 and leaking 32, an average margin of minus 23.4, and Saturday's minus 28 sits right in that pattern. Leeds' WWLWL against Salford's LLLWL over the last five was the form guide, and the form guide won out again.

**Key Match Stats**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 634 | Run metres | **1,242** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 14 | Tackle busts | **43** |
| 6 | Offloads | **11** |
| 12 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 5 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 4/6 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 12 | Errors | 6 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.6 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Salford Red Devils 4 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 4 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 55%, but Salford Red Devils stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 147 ELO points clear, 1510 to 1363. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Salford Red Devils | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 8.6pts | Avg Score | 19.2pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 13.4pts |
| -23.4pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 723.8m | Run Metres | 1096.2m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 245.4 | Tackles | 286.6 |
| 6.2 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L | 8.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 W · R6 L | 19.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Leeds Rhinos | 42 – 6 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2025 | R2 | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 32 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R20 | Salford Red Devils | 22 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2024 | R1 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R18 | Salford Red Devils | 14 – 16 | Leeds Rhinos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 2nd there (0.33 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the right edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Lumb, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.17/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 0.33/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.67/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0.83/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 6 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 107m/g | 98m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.2/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 95.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 20 | 13 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 254m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.3/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 85.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Salford Red Devils | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 3 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 139m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%
**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.18) +56% · 2nd Rows 0.34/g (lg 0.23) +48%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Salford Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Atkin | FB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Billy Glover | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.90 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonny Vaughan | CE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Wagstaffe | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.90 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kai Morgan | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Nikorima | HB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 2/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Matty Foster | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Joe Mellor | HK | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Shorrocks | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Harvey Wilson | LK | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | — | — |
| 14 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Davis | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Jamie Pye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | George Hill | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 2/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.32 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.67 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 11/19g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.64 AI 61% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 10/12g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.04 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Matt Frawley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.93 AI 37% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 41' 44' 75' |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.47 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Gannon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Salford Red Devils 1363 · Leeds Rhinos 1510 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)