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Super League | Round 7

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SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 10 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

028
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Leeds Rhinos at 55%

AI Win Probability

55%Leeds RhinosFavourite

Salford Red Devils

45%

Leeds Rhinos

55%

AI Match Overview

Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Salford Red Devils are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1510 vs 1363). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 3.6 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.10

Winner ✓

Edge

-36.3%

Line / Spread

Leeds Rhinos -3.6 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5W
R6L

older → newer

8.6
Leeds Rhinos
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5W
R6L
19.2

Avg Conceded

32.0

Salford Red Devils

13.4

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-23.4

Salford Red Devils

5.8

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

724

Salford Red Devils

1096

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

2.8

Salford Red Devils

2.8

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1
Jul 2025SAL 6 - 42 LEE
Mar 2025SAL 6 - 32 LEE
Jul 2024SAL 22 - 16 LEE
Mar 2024SAL 16 - 22 LEE
Jul 2023SAL 14 - 16 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1363Overall1510
LEE
ELO difference: -147 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

961Forwards892
Best: 1182SAL +69Best: 1141
905Backs923
Best: 1036LEE +19Best: 1116
1100Halves959
Best: 1100SAL +141Best: 959
1137Hooker905
SAL +232

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
LEE
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
8.6pts
Avg Score
19.2pts
32.0pts
Avg Conceded
13.4pts
-23.4pts
Avg Margin
5.8pts
723.8m
Run Metres
1096.2m
2.8
Clean Breaks
2.8
245.4
Tackles
286.6
6.2
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Rhinos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Devils
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Rhinos
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Rhinos
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Rhinos

Model Confidence

55%

Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: -3.6

3/4 match predictions correct