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Super League | Round 7

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • FRIDAY 11 APR, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

1228
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Hull KR at 62%

AI Win Probability

62%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

62%

Wigan Warriors

38%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Wigan Warriors are far from out of this at 38%. Wigan Warriors are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Hull KR counter with ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1763 vs 1715). Recent form favours Hull KR with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Wigan Warriors. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 4.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @2.21

Lost ✗

Edge

+17.0%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +4.7 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5W
R6W

older → newer

31.2
Wigan Warriors
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5L
R6W
40.4

Avg Conceded

5.2

Hull KR

11.6

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

26.0

Hull KR

28.8

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1250

Hull KR

1170

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

6.2

Hull KR

7.8

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 4-1
May 2026HKR 62 - 4 WIG
Oct 2025HKR 24 - 6 WIG
Aug 2025HKR 10 - 6 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 2 - 9 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 26 - 10 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1763 vs 1715), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.83).

The model sides with ELO, Hull KR predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1763Overall1715
WIG
ELO difference: +48 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

942Forwards958
Best: 1211WIG +16Best: 1350
1096Backs1155
Best: 1281WIG +60Best: 1331
955Halves1042
Best: 955WIG +87Best: 1042
1000Hooker885
HKR +115

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
WIG
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
31.2pts
Avg Score
40.4pts
5.2pts
Avg Conceded
11.6pts
26.0pts
Avg Margin
28.8pts
1249.6m
Run Metres
1170.4m
6.2
Clean Breaks
7.8
267.4
Tackles
285.8
7.4
Errors
9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

62%

Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.7

0/4 match predictions correct