# Hull KR v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 12 – 28 Wigan Warriors

_Wigan Warriors hit back to march past Hull KR._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 62% / Wigan Warriors 38% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Fri, 11 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Joe Burgess (6' 1st), Peta Hiku (29') · Wigan Warriors: Zach Eckersley (20'), Jake Wardle (44' Tipped ⚡), Harry Smith (67'), Jai Field (70' Tipped ⚡), Abbas Miski (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 62% | Lost |
| Wigan Warriors | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Hull KR 12–28 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 7 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had Hull KR favourites here, 62% to win, expected to get up by 4.7 points. Wigan Warriors won by 16. That's the kind of miss you write down and stare at for a while.

The scoreboard actually backed the model early. Joe Burgess crossed inside six minutes for Hull KR, Arthur Mourgue added the conversion, and by the half-hour mark Peta Hiku had gone over too to make it 12-6. Zach Eckersley had pulled one back for Wigan Warriors in between, but at the break Hull KR were still in front and the pre-match read looked sound enough.

Then Wigan Warriors took the game off them. Jake Wardle crossed to cut it to two, and from the 67th minute on it was one-way traffic: Harry Smith, then Jai Field, then Abbas Miski, three tries in eleven minutes that turned a two-point deficit into a sixteen-point win. Smith kicked every one of his conversions on the night, which is the sort of tidy detail that matters when the margin blows out like that.

The stat sheet explains why the second half went the way it did. Wigan Warriors ran for 1,571 metres to Hull KR's 1,310, but the number that actually decides these things is tackle busts: 55 to 14. That's not a contest, that's one side getting held up and the other going through arm tackles all night. Five line breaks to two on top of that, and it's clear where the go-forward came from.

Discipline told a different story. Hull KR conceded just one penalty all match against Wigan Warriors' five, and it didn't matter a bit. Wigan Warriors also held the ball better, just 5 errors to Hull KR's 9, so they were both cleaner and busier with it. Hard to lose a game playing like that, and they didn't.

The positional ratings pointed this way before a ball was kicked, even if the model's margin call didn't follow through. Wigan Warriors came in rated stronger across the backs (1155 to 1096) and clearly stronger in the halves, 1042 to 955. Their form line backed it up too: an average of 40.4 points scored in their last five against Hull KR's 31.2, even though Hull KR arrived on a perfect 5-0 run and Wigan Warriors had one loss in their five. Big scoring habit against a clean win record, and the scoring habit won out.

Hull KR did enough in the first half to suggest the platform was there. Burgess and Hiku both finished chances, and the penalty count says they weren't giving anything away needlessly. But the tackle-bust gap was always going to catch up with them eventually, and it did, in a hurry, late.

The model went 3 from 15 on this one and got the total right, 40 points against a predicted 43, within three. The margin and the winner both got away from it. Wigan Warriors' halves and backs did what the ratings said they might, just not in the order the model expected.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1,310 | Run metres | **1,571** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 14 | Tackle busts | **55** |
| **12** | Offloads | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | **5** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 5 |
| 2/2 | Goals | 4/5 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 9 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Wigan Warriors defied the model's 62% prediction for Hull KR, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. Wigan Warriors trailed 12–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–28. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (45/100) — penalties Hull KR 1 · Wigan Warriors 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 62.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 5 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Hull KR are the call at 62%, but Wigan Warriors stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 48 ELO points clear, 1763 to 1715. Form leans Hull KR's way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Wigan Warriors.

On paper Wigan Warriors shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Hull KR, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull KR by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Hull KR, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 40.4pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Conceded | 11.6pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Margin | 28.8pts |
| 1249.6m | Run Metres | 1170.4m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 7.8 |
| 267.4 | Tackles | 285.8 |
| 7.4 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W | 31.2 |
| Wigan Warriors | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W | 40.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Wigan Warriors | 46 – 0 | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Hull KR | 62 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | GF | Hull KR | 24 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R22 | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 9 – 2 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 5th there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 1st there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Wardle, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.83/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 3.17/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.17/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 6 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 4 | 22 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 82.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 4 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 265m/g | 346m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.4% | 92.8% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.16/g (lg 0.24) -33% · Halfbacks 0.08/g (lg 0.14) -43%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.24) +4% · Fullbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.17) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/7g | 3/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 9/16g | 35% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 1/3g | 4/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.92 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 11/13g | 30% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jez Litten | HB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/13g | 6/40g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 4/24g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/33g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Kelepi Tanginoa | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/13g | 6/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/38g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 3/17g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.66 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Brown | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 7 in 5g | 11/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·3·1·1·2) | 7/9g | 2/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.18 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 8/7g | 2/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.67 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·3) | 6/11g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.81 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.96 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 4 in 6g | 9/10g (1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 20/14g | 5/4g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 5 in 6g | 11/10g (2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 5/9g | 0/3g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.69 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Sam Walters | PR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 11/19g | 4/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brad O'Neill | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1763 vs 1715), but the market favours Wigan Warriors (@1.83). The model sides with ELO, Hull KR predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1763 · Wigan Warriors 1715 · ELO difference: 48 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)