# Huddersfield Giants v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 18 – 38 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons torch Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 43% / Catalans Dragons 57% · John Smith's Stadium · Sun, 13 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Jacob Gagai (16' 1st), Jake Bibby (50'), Sam Halsall (66') · Catalans Dragons: Tariq Sims (20'), Leo Darrelatour (32' Tipped ⚡), Julian Bousquet (41'), Bayley Sironen (44'), Paul Seguier (57'), Tevita Pangai Junior (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | 57% | Won |
| Huddersfield Giants | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 18–38 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 7 at John Smith's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four minutes told the story. Catalans Dragons went from a handy 14-6 lead to 6-26 between the 41st and 45th, Julian Bousquet and Bayley Sironen crossing either side of halftime, and from there Huddersfield Giants were playing for pride. Final score: Catalans Dragons 38, Huddersfield Giants 18.

Jacob Gagai actually had the Giants in front early, touching down in the 16th to make it 4-0, then again for a 6-0 lead after Liam Sutcliffe's conversion. It didn't last. Tariq Sims hit back inside four minutes, Guillermo Aispuro-Bichet's conversion levelled it at 6-6, and from there Catalans Dragons didn't trail again. Leo Darrelatour's try and two Aispuro-Bichet penalty goals had it 6-14 by the break, and that four-minute salvo either side of the interval put it out of reach.

Huddersfield clawed back twice through Jake Bibby and Sam Halsall, closing to within 14 at one stage and again within 14 late, but Catalans always had an answer. Paul Seguier's try in the 57th and Tevita Pangai Junior's in the 77th kept the margin where it needed to be. Six different players crossed for the Dragons across the eighty, which is the kind of spread that wins you games regardless of who's off.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard says. Catalans ran for 812 metres to Huddersfield's 617, and while both sides managed two line breaks, the visitors were far tidier with it, coughing up just 5 errors to the Giants' 8. Discipline mattered too: 2 penalties conceded against 5 gave Catalans the extra field position and shots at goal that Aispuro-Bichet cashed in on repeatedly.

Huddersfield actually won the collision battle in one area, 23 tackle busts to 17, but busts without support count for little when you're only offloading twice compared to Catalans' 6. That's the difference between busting the line and actually finishing off the back of it.

The positional numbers explain plenty. Catalans came in rated well clear up front, 986 to 788, and streets ahead at hooker, 1009 to 660, and both edges showed up in a forward-dominated arm wrestle. Huddersfield's halves were rated marginally ahead, 1001 to 1000, but that's not where this game was decided.

Form lines had this coming too. Huddersfield arrived on a five-game losing run conceding an average of 30.4 points, and they shipped 38 here. Catalans had won two of their last five and were averaging 811.6 running metres a game coming in, almost identical to the 812 they put up on the night. Nothing about this result should surprise anyone who'd looked at the recent form.

Alphr's model backed Catalans Dragons at 57 percent and got the winner right. The margin was another matter: picked at 1.7 points, it landed at 20, and the total of 56 ran 17 points hotter than the 39 forecast. Right team, wrong shape. That's the ledger for this one: 2 from 15 on the individual markets, a reminder that picking the winner is only half the job.

**Key Match Stats**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 617 | Run metres | **812** |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| **23** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| 2 | Offloads | **6** |
| 8 | Errors | **5** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 7/8 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 5 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 56 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 39. Catalans Dragons led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (32/100) — penalties Huddersfield Giants 5 · Catalans Dragons 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 2 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Catalans Dragons are the call at 57%, but Huddersfield Giants stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 136 ELO points clear, 1449 to 1313. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Huddersfield Giants.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Catalans Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 10.4pts | Avg Score | 13.6pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -20.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 664.4m | Run Metres | 811.6m |
| 2.2 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 242.6 | Tackles | 204.2 |
| 6.6 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L | 10.4 |
| Catalans Dragons | R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 13.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Huddersfield Giants | 42 – 20 | Catalans Dragons | Catalans Dragons 53% ✗ |
| 2026 | R1 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 10 | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R16 | Catalans Dragons | 32 – 0 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 23 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 4th there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 11th-ranked middle attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 11th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.17/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 58m/g | 39m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 94% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 16 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 310m/g | 430m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 14.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.1% | 87.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 4 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 133m/g | 176m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 94.2% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.06/g (lg 0.04) +50% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Props 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Centres 0.53/g (lg 0.36) +47% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 0.85) +39% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at John Smith's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aidan McGowan | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Connor Carr | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.32 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.61 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Bibby | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 50' |
| 4 | Liam Sutcliffe | CE | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Sam Halsall | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 9/21g | 34% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Jacob Gagai | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | George Flanagan | HB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.01 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.42 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Fenton Rogers | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Golding | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 5/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Burgess | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam Hewitt | 2R | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 6/31g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Bill Leyland | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Bibby | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Taane Milne | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Billington | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/7g | 1/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.96 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.73 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.41 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Leo Darrelatour | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.34 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Luke Keary | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.32 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Theo Fages | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 77' |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Ben Garcia | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 20' |
| 12 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 44' |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Julian Bousquet | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 57' |
| 17 | Matthieu Laguerre | INT | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.58 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.38 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1313 · Catalans Dragons 1449 · ELO difference: 136 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Catalans Dragons predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)