# Castleford Tigers v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 7 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 6 – 20 Leigh Leopards

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Castleford Tigers._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 43% / Leigh Leopards 57% · The Jungle · Sat, 12 Apr, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Zac Cini (73') · Leigh Leopards: Edwin Ipape (3' 1st), Darnell McIntosh (35'), Bailey Hodgson (42'), Darnell McIntosh (50')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 57% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.5 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 7 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Castleford Tigers 6–20 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 7 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards won 20-6 at The Jungle, and even that scoreline flatters Castleford Tigers. Leigh ran for 1,524 metres to Castleford's 866, scored six line breaks to none, and racked up 31 tackle busts against 15. A 14-point margin off the back of numbers like that is Castleford getting off lightly.

The only column Castleford won was the ledger that doesn't win games. They conceded just 3 errors to Leigh's 4 and gave away fewer penalties, 3 to 6. Neat, disciplined, and none of it mattered because they couldn't get their hands on the footy in dangerous positions.

Leigh had the game shut up shop early. Edwin Ipape, their hooker, crossed in the third minute and Gareth O'Brien's conversion made it 0-6 before most people had found their seat. O'Brien added a penalty goal on 10 minutes for 0-8, and from there Castleford were chasing a scoreboard that kept moving away from them. Darnell McIntosh crossed on 35, Bailey Hodgson on 42, and McIntosh again on 50 to put Leigh out to 0-20. Castleford didn't trouble the scorers at all until Zac Cini's try in the 73rd minute, with Rowan Milnes's conversion the only response to four unanswered Leigh tries.

The hooker gap explains a fair bit of this. Leigh went into the game rated 781 at hooker to Castleford's 600, the one position where the visitors held a clear edge over a side that was stronger everywhere else on paper, forwards 948 to 839, backs 794 to 758, halves 727 to 671. It was the hooker, Ipape, who opened the scoring. Sometimes the one number that doesn't favour you is the one that decides it.

Form lines pointed this way too. Leigh came in averaging 1,184.6 running metres a game and comfortably cleared it here with 1,524. Castleford's defence had been leaking 29.6 points a game over their last five, and old habits didn't break at The Jungle. Leigh's own past five had been a WWDLL squeeze, average margin just minus 2.8, but there was nothing squeezed about this performance.

Alphr's model had Leigh at 57% to win, rated them 1536 to Castleford's 1293, and pencilled in a 3.5-point margin. Reasonable in direction, well short in degree, the actual margin was 14. The model also had this finishing as a shootout, 46 combined points. It landed at 26. Low-scoring arm wrestle after a hot Leigh start isn't the easiest thing to see coming, and the model's card on this one went 1/15.

Castleford will look at the penalty count and the error count and wonder how a side that played the tidier game still shipped 20 points. The answer is in the collision stats. You can look after the footy all day, but if the other mob is breaking the line six times to your none and busting twice as many tackles, tidy doesn't cash out as competitive.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 866 | Run metres | **1,524** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 15 | Tackle busts | **31** |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| **3** | Errors | 4 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 2/5 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 3 | Errors | 4 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 3.5 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 26 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 3 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leigh Leopards are the call at 57%, but Castleford Tigers stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 243 ELO points clear, 1536 to 1293. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 3.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Leigh Leopards, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.0pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -15.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 824.2m | Run Metres | 1184.6m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 190.4 | Tackles | 309.8 |
| 6.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 L | 14.0 |
| Leigh Leopards | R2 W · R3 W · R4 D · R5 L · R6 L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 24 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards 79% ✓ |
| 2026 | R13 | Castleford Tigers | 14 – 24 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Leigh Leopards | 46 – 6 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 28 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 12 – 34 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 6th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 8th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Rooney, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) | 0.67/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 76m/g | 126m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.9% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 15 | 13 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 439m/g | 589m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 22/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 83.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 5 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 217m/g | 349m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 6.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 94.7% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Five-Eighths 0.21/g (lg 0.18) +17%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.13 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.23 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 33% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.57 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.27 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Muizz Mustapha | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Sylvester Namo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Daniel Okoro | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.61 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Darnell Mcintosh | WG | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 24% | — | 🏉 35' 50' |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.98 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Keanan Brand | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.77 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.47 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1293 · Leigh Leopards 1536 · ELO difference: 243 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)