Castleford Tigers
Leigh Leopards
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
43%
Leigh Leopards
57%
AI Match Overview
Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Castleford Tigers are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. Leigh Leopards carry a 243-point ELO rating advantage (1536 vs 1293). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leigh Leopards to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.8%
Line / Spread
Leigh Leopards -3.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R2L R3L R4W R5L R6L older → newer | 14.0 |
Leigh Leopards | R2W R3W R4D R5L R6L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.6
Castleford Tigers
21.6
Leigh Leopards
Avg Margin
-15.6
Castleford Tigers
-2.8
Leigh Leopards
Run Metres
824
Castleford Tigers
1185
Leigh Leopards
Clean Breaks
3.6
Castleford Tigers
4.2
Leigh Leopards
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -3.5