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Super League | Round 6

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THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • SUNDAY 30 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

540
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 82%

AI Win Probability

82%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

82%

Salford Red Devils

18%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 318-point ELO rating advantage (1698 vs 1380). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 11.3 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.22

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +11.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4W
R5L

older → newer

29.6
Salford Red Devils
R1L
R2L
R3L
R4L
R5W
8.6

Avg Conceded

11.8

Wigan Warriors

37.6

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

17.8

Wigan Warriors

-29.0

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1144

Wigan Warriors

627

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

5.8

Wigan Warriors

2.6

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 5-0
Jun 2025WIG 46 - 6 SAL
Feb 2024WIG 26 - 6 SAL
Feb 2024WIG 22 - 12 SAL
Sep 2024WIG 64 - 0 SAL
Aug 2023WIG 26 - 8 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1698Overall1380
SAL
ELO difference: +318 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

839Forwards809
Best: 1136WIG +30Best: 1000
879Backs1012
Best: 1062SAL +133Best: 1020
1222Halves1060
Best: 1222WIG +162Best: 1060
1154Hooker1000
WIG +154

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
SAL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
29.6pts
Avg Score
8.6pts
11.8pts
Avg Conceded
37.6pts
17.8pts
Avg Margin
-29.0pts
1143.6m
Run Metres
626.6m
5.8
Clean Breaks
2.6
313.6
Tackles
210.8
8.2
Errors
6.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

82%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +11.3

3/4 match predictions correct