# Wigan Warriors v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 54 – 0 Salford Red Devils

_Wigan Warriors put Salford Red Devils to the sword._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 82% / Salford Red Devils 18% · The Brick Community Stadium · Sun, 30 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Jake Wardle (10' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jai Field (23' Tipped ⚡), Jake Wardle (25' 1st Tipped ⚡), Junior Nsemba (30'), Liam Marshall (43' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (47' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walters (50'), Zach Eckersley (58'), Jai Field (75' Tipped ⚡), Jake Wardle (77' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Salford Red Devils: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 82% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 18% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.3 predicted → 54 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Wigan Warriors 54–0 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 6 at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils didn't cough the ball up once all afternoon. Zero errors, the full 80 minutes. Wigan Warriors made eleven. And Wigan Warriors won by 54, at home at The Brick Community Stadium.

That contrast is the whole match in miniature. Salford played it tight, held the ball, did everything the coaching manual says you should do to stay in a game. Wigan Warriors didn't bother with tidy. They ran hard, ran often, and let the errors sort themselves out. 1,583 running metres to 541, eleven line breaks to one, 29 tackle busts to 15. Ball security counts for little if you can't get past the line, and Salford only managed that once in the entire game.

Wigan had the better numbers walking in too. Their halves combined for a rating of 1222 against Salford's 1060, and the hooker gap was even bigger, 1154 to 1000. Salford's one edge on paper was out the back, 1012 to 879 in the backs column, but it never showed up on the field. Alphr's model had Wigan as clear favourites at 82 percent, with an expected margin of 11.3 points. The lopsided nature of the actual result, 54 points, blew that projection out of the water.

The scoreboard told most of the story by half-time. Jake Wardle opened the scoring in the 10th minute. Jai Field crossed in the 23rd, then Wardle added his second two minutes later. Harry Smith was faultless off the tee all afternoon, and by the time Junior Nsemba scored in the 30th minute, converted for 22-0, Wigan had put four tries on the board without reply. Salford's discipline had held up in patches, conceding just 2 penalties to Wigan's 5, but discipline doesn't stop metres and it doesn't stop line breaks.

The second half was more of the same, just delivered faster. Liam Marshall scored in the 43rd minute to make it 26-0. Bevan French followed four minutes later, then Sam Walters crossed in the 50th to push it to 36-0. Zach Eckersley got his in the 58th for 40-0, and by that point Salford's afternoon had turned into damage control. Jai Field grabbed his second in the 75th minute, and Jake Wardle completed his hat-trick in the 77th, with Harry Smith slotting the extras to close it out at 54-0.

Nine different Wigan players had a hand in the scoring column across the match, and eight of them crossed the line themselves. Wardle led the way with three tries, Field chipped in with two, and the rest came from Nsemba, Marshall, French, Walters and Eckersley. Harry Smith didn't miss a conversion all day.

For Salford, there's not much to take out of this beyond the fact they didn't turn the ball over. That's a real positive in isolation, the kind of discipline that usually keeps you in games. But it means nothing when the other side is running for three times your metres and breaking the line eleven times to your one. Wigan didn't need the ball back because they rarely gave it up in the first place, and when they had it, they made it count.

Alphr's model got the winner right, as it should have at 82 percent. Where it fell short was the size of it, tipping an 11-point margin and getting a 54-point demolition instead. Some days the ambition just overwhelms the caution, and this was one of them.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **1,583** | Run metres | 541 |
| **11** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **29** | Tackle busts | 15 |
| **10** | Offloads | 2 |
| 11 | Errors | **0** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/10 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 11 | Errors | 0 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 0 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 82% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.3 but the actual margin was 54 points. Wigan Warriors led 22–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (27/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 5 · Salford Red Devils 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 82% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 318 ELO points clear, 1698 to 1380. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.3, with the two sides combining for about 42. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 8.6pts |
| 11.8pts | Avg Conceded | 37.6pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Margin | -29.0pts |
| 1143.6m | Run Metres | 626.6m |
| 5.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.6 |
| 313.6 | Tackles | 210.8 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 6.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 L | 29.6 |
| Salford Red Devils | R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 W | 8.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R13 | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 46 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 6 – 26 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2024 | — | Salford Red Devils | 12 – 22 | Wigan Warriors |
| 2024 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 64 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2023 | R24 | Wigan Warriors | 26 – 8 | Salford Red Devils |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 9th-ranked right edge attack (0.6 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 7th there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.2/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.4/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.4/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 7th) | 0.6/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 121m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 5 | 1 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 473m/g | 280m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 85.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 1 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 342m/g | 134m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.2/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.27/g (lg 0.17) +59% · 2nd Rows 0.33/g (lg 0.23) +43%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.16/g (lg 0.23) -30% · Halfbacks 0.08/g (lg 0.14) -43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 5 in 4g | 10/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·3·1·1) | 6/9g | 30/37g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.57 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' 75' |
| 2 | Jacob Douglas | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Zach Eckersley | CE | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/14g | 27% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/11g | 13/32g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' 25' 77' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 3 in 5g | 10/10g (2·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 8/15g | 43/53g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.28 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.12 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Bevan French | 5/8 | 4 in 5g | 11/10g (1·2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 12/11g | 46/40g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 81% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.40 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 7 | Harry Smith | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 12/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyler Dupree | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 9/16g | 3/16g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.77 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/23g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 8/19g | 21/51g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.97 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brad O'Neill | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.66 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 16 | Harvie Hill | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Walters | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/14g | 16% | — | 🏉 50' |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Nathan Connell | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Jonathon Vaughan | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Joshua Wagstaffe | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.51 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joe Shorrocks | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/27g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Kai Morgan | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Finley Yates | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Chris Hill | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Matty Foster | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | George Hill | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | James Shields | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Scott Egan | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1698 · Salford Red Devils 1380 · ELO difference: 318 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 82%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)