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Super League | Round 6

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • FRIDAY 28 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1614
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

✅ Model correct — backed Warrington Wolves at 60%

AI Win Probability

60%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

60%

Leeds Rhinos

40%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Leeds Rhinos are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Warrington Wolves carry a 64-point ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1527). The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 1.1 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.50

Winner ✓

Edge

-7.0%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +1.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R2W
R3L
R4L
R5W

older → newer

18.4
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5W
18.8

Avg Conceded

22.8

Warrington Wolves

13.0

Leeds Rhinos

Avg Margin

-4.4

Warrington Wolves

5.8

Leeds Rhinos

Run Metres

867

Warrington Wolves

1081

Leeds Rhinos

Clean Breaks

1.8

Warrington Wolves

2.0

Leeds Rhinos

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 3-2
Apr 2026WAR 22 - 26 LEE
Jun 2025WAR 12 - 36 LEE
Feb 2024WAR 34 - 8 LEE
Aug 2024WAR 24 - 6 LEE
Jul 2024WAR 30 - 18 LEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1592Overall1527
LEE
ELO difference: +64 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

779Forwards841
Best: 996LEE +62Best: 1029
803Backs755
Best: 918WAR +48Best: 859
951Halves828
Best: 951WAR +123Best: 828
718Hooker806
LEE +88

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
LEE
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
18.4pts
Avg Score
18.8pts
22.8pts
Avg Conceded
13.0pts
-4.4pts
Avg Margin
5.8pts
866.6m
Run Metres
1081.0m
1.8
Clean Breaks
2.0
285.8
Tackles
291.6
6.8
Errors
8.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Wolves

Model Confidence

60%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +1.1

3/4 match predictions correct