# Warrington Wolves v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 16 – 14 Leeds Rhinos

_Warrington Wolves surge back to run down Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 60% / Leeds Rhinos 40% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Fri, 28 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Stefan Ratchford (62' Tipped ⚡), Jake Thewlis (73') · Leeds Rhinos: James McDonnell (16'), Riley Lumb (26' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Hall (48' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 60% | Won |
| Leeds Rhinos | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Warrington Wolves 16–14 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 6 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos did most of the hard yards in this one and still walked away with nothing to show for it. They ran for 1,144 metres to Warrington's 581, broke the line five times to Warrington's one, and busted 31 tackles to Warrington's nine. By most attacking measures they were the better side across the 80 minutes. They still lost 16-14.

The half-time board read Warrington Wolves 6, Leeds Rhinos 10. Arron Lindop opened the scoring for Warrington at the 11th minute, converted by Marc Sneyd to make it 6-0. James McDonnell hit back for Leeds five minutes later, and Jake Connor's conversion tied it at 6-6. Riley Lumb put Leeds in front just before the half-hour, and that's the score they took into the sheds.

Ryan Hall extended the lead to 6-14 early in the second half, and at that point Leeds looked to be cruising, both on the stats sheet and the scoreboard. Then it turned. Stefan Ratchford crossed at 62 minutes, Sneyd's conversion made it 12-14, and Jake Thewlis scored at 73 to complete a Warrington fightback that Leeds couldn't answer.

Some of that comes down to the halves. Warrington's halves rating going in was 951 to Leeds' 828, the biggest gap on the sheet between the two sides. Leeds had the edge at hooker, 806 to 718, and that showed up in a strong ball-running game through the middle. Their forward pack was rated higher too, 841 to 779. None of that translated into closing the game out when it mattered.

Handling and discipline played their part as well. Leeds gave the ball away nine times to Warrington's seven, and conceded six penalties to Warrington's four. Neither gap is huge on its own, but in a match that finished as a two-point arm-wrestle, those extra errors and extra penalties gave Warrington field position and opportunities they didn't have to earn the hard way.

It also runs against the form Leeds had been carrying into the game. Across their last five matches they'd conceded an average of 13 points, easily the best defensive number of the two sides, with Warrington shipping 22.8 a game over the same stretch. On the night the pattern flipped: Leeds let in 16, Warrington held them to 14 and did just enough with the ball when it counted.

Alphr's model had Warrington as 1.1-point favourites and gave them a 60% chance of winning, built largely off that gap in the halves. The final margin came in at 2 points, about as close as a pre-match number gets to matching reality, and the model's margin-band call was right too. Across the round it finished 7 from 15, hits and misses both, but this was one it read properly.

Leeds did the leg work: the metres, the line breaks, the tackle busts. Warrington did the scoreboard work, scoring three tries to Leeds' three but landing theirs when it mattered most, in the final quarter. In rugby league, only one of those columns decides the result, and on this night it belonged to Warrington.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 581 | Run metres | **1,144** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 9 | Tackle busts | **31** |
| 6 | Offloads | **7** |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 1/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 7 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warrington Wolves to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warrington Wolves by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Warrington Wolves trailed 6–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–14. The model went 7/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (42/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Leeds Rhinos 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 59.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 1 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warrington Wolves are the call at 60%, but Leeds Rhinos stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 64 ELO points clear, 1592 to 1527.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warrington Wolves, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 13.0pts |
| -4.4pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 866.6m | Run Metres | 1081.0m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 285.8 | Tackles | 291.6 |
| 6.8 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 W | 18.4 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 W | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | Leeds Rhinos | 12 – 14 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R15 | Warrington Wolves | 6 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 71% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Leeds Rhinos | 26 – 22 | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos 74% ✓ |
| 2025 | R14 | Leeds Rhinos | 36 – 12 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 34 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 3rd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the left edge: Super League's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Handley, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 6th) | 1.2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.2/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 100m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 94.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 11 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 312m/g | 455m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 17.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.2% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 262m/g | 332m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.3% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Fullbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.23) +13% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jake Thewlis | WG | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 3 | Stefan Ratchford | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.22 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 4 | Ben Currie | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 13/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Arron Lindop | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/5g (1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.46 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.54 AI 25% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/24g | 2/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/20g | 11/34g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Zane Musgrove | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 9/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Adam Holroyd | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | James Harrison | LK | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/18g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 3/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/40g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Max Wood | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Yates | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/11g | 4% | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 31% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.28 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.28 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.73 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/17g | 7/6g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/15g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.48 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| 6 | Jake Connor | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/5g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.88 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.44 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Gannon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1592 · Leeds Rhinos 1527 · ELO difference: 64 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Warrington Wolves |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)