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Super League | Round 6

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 28 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

1440
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

❌ Upset — model favoured Leigh Leopards at 70%

AI Win Probability

70%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

70%

Wakefield Trinity

30%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 176-point ELO rating advantage (1597 vs 1420). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 8.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.28

Lost ✗

Edge

-7.8%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +8.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4D
R5L

older → newer

16.2
Wakefield Trinity
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4W
R5L
14.8

Avg Conceded

13.6

Leigh Leopards

16.8

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

2.6

Leigh Leopards

-2.0

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

1219

Leigh Leopards

996

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

3.8

Leigh Leopards

2.8

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
Apr 2026LEI 14 - 18 WAK
Sep 2025LEI 26 - 10 WAK
Jun 2025LEI 24 - 20 WAK
Feb 2023LEI 30 - 4 WAK
Sep 2023LEI 20 - 19 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1597Overall1420
WAK
ELO difference: +176 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

825Forwards838
Best: 1032WAK +12Best: 1143
943Backs795
Best: 1162LEI +148Best: 914
600Halves800
Best: 600WAK +200Best: 800
600Hooker1284
WAK +684

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
WAK
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
16.2pts
Avg Score
14.8pts
13.6pts
Avg Conceded
16.8pts
2.6pts
Avg Margin
-2.0pts
1219.0m
Run Metres
996.4m
3.8
Clean Breaks
2.8
315.8
Tackles
305.8
8.2
Errors
10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Trinity
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

70%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +8.8

1/4 match predictions correct