# Leigh Leopards v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 14 – 40 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity run riot over Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 10 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 70% / Wakefield Trinity 30% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 28 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Umyla Hanley (17' Tipped ⚡), Keanan Brand (25' Tipped ⚡), Frankie Halton (63') · Wakefield Trinity: Oliver Russell (8' 1st), Mike McMeeken (11'), Mike McMeeken (37'), Tom Johnstone (55' Tipped ⚡), Liam Hood (60'), Tom Johnstone (72' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Russell (79' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 70% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.8 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Leigh Leopards 14–40 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 6 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time had Wakefield Trinity up 18-10 at Progress with Unity Stadium, and on the stat sheet alone that looked like a game Leigh Leopards could still win. By full-time it was 40-14. Whatever happened in that second 40 wasn't a levelling out, it was a landslide.

Leigh actually had the better of the middle stretch of the first half. Wakefield sprinted out through Oliver Russell and Mike McMeeken inside the first 13 minutes to lead 12-0, but Leigh clawed back with tries to Umyla Hanley and Keanan Brand to get within two at 10-12 in the 25th. That's about as close as this one ever got. McMeeken's second, right on the stroke of half-time, put Wakefield back out to 10-18 at the break.

The second half belonged entirely to Wakefield. Tom Johnstone, Liam Hood and a second Johnstone try between the 55th and 72nd minutes turned an eight-point buffer into a 26-point margin, with Frankie Halton's try for Leigh at the 63-minute mark doing nothing more than briefly interrupt it. Russell's second try of the night, in the 79th minute, put the final gloss on a half Wakefield completely dominated on the scoreboard.

The final score suggests a blowout, but the general play numbers tell a different story. Run metres were basically level, 1,208 to 1,187 in Wakefield's favour, and line breaks were tied at four apiece. Tackle busts were close too, 28 for Leigh against 26. What actually separated the two sides was the ball-handling column: Leigh coughed it up 15 times to Wakefield's 8. Every one of those extra errors handed Wakefield another chance to hold field position and convert it into points. Leigh did win the discipline count, conceding just one penalty to Wakefield's three, but that edge counted for little against a nine-error gap.

Look at the spine of both sides and the result starts to make more sense. Wakefield's halves and hooker were rated well clear of Leigh's coming in, 800 to 600 in the halves and a lopsided 1,284 to 600 at hooker. That's exactly the kind of gap that shows up in ball control, the stat that decided this game. Leigh's advantage was out wide, with backs rated at 943 against Wakefield's 795, and for a stretch in the first half it delivered, with Hanley and Brand finishing off tries. It just wasn't enough to offset what was happening through the middle of the field.

Form lines had actually pointed the other way before kickoff. Leigh came in on a WWWDL run over their last five with an average margin of plus 2.6 points, while Wakefield were WLLWL at an average of minus 2. Alphr's model had made Leigh a 70% favourite and picked them to win by 8.8 points on a combined total of 45. Instead Wakefield won by 26, one of the bigger misses on the model's card, which finished 3 from 15 for the round.

Whatever the pre-match numbers said, this one was settled by discipline with the ball in hand rather than raw metres or line breaks. Wakefield held onto possession when it mattered and Leigh didn't, and a two-point game at half-time turned into a 26-point rout by full-time.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 1,187 | Run metres | **1,208** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **28** | Tackle busts | 26 |
| 6 | Offloads | **8** |
| 15 | Errors | **8** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 7 |
| 1/3 | Goals | 6/7 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 15 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 70% prediction for Leigh Leopards, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.8 but the actual margin was 26 points. Wakefield Trinity led 10–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (28/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 1 · Wakefield Trinity 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 70.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 70% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 176 ELO points clear, 1597 to 1420. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wakefield Trinity.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 8.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 16.8pts |
| 2.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1219.0m | Run Metres | 996.4m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.8 |
| 315.8 | Tackles | 305.8 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 D · R5 L | 16.2 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | EF | Wakefield Trinity | 26 – 16 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R27 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 19 | Wakefield Trinity | Leigh Leopards 62% ✗ |
| 2026 | R5 | Wakefield Trinity | 18 – 14 | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | EF | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2025 | R14 | Wakefield Trinity | 20 – 24 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Niu, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.2/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.2/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.8/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th) | 1.2/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.4/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.6/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th (weak) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 2 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 129m/g | 78m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 92.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 603m/g | 390m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 81% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 283m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 4.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.4% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.14) +100% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Wingers 1.41/g (lg 0.85) +66%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.89 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.72 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.42 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1·0) | 1/3g | 8/15g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.61 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.59 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.27 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 6/28g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/23g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad Dwyer | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 2/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Hughes | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/16g | 16% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Edwin Ipape | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/23g | 26% | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 35% | — | — |
| 2 | Matty Russell | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.44 AI 22% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' 72' |
| 6 | Olly Russell | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | 🏉 11' 37' |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/8g | 20% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.12 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $32.22 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·1·3·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.27 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.19 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1597 · Wakefield Trinity 1420 · ELO difference: 176 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leigh Leopards |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)