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Super League | Round 6

alphr.com.au

STADE GILBERT BRUTUS • SATURDAY 29 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
CAT

Catalans Dragons

1314
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 73%

AI Win Probability

73%St HelensFavourite

Catalans Dragons

27%

St Helens

73%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. St Helens carry a 104-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1465). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts St Helens by 9.8 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.72

Winner ✓

Edge

+14.6%

Line / Spread

St Helens -9.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Catalans Dragons
R1L
R2L
R3L
R4W
R5W

older → newer

11.8
St Helens
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4L
R5L
35.2

Avg Conceded

16.0

Catalans Dragons

9.2

St Helens

Avg Margin

-4.2

Catalans Dragons

26.0

St Helens

Run Metres

830

Catalans Dragons

1389

St Helens

Clean Breaks

2.6

Catalans Dragons

7.2

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 3-2
Mar 2026CAT 4 - 36 STH
May 2025CAT 0 - 40 STH
Feb 2024CAT 12 - 24 STH
Apr 2024CAT 14 - 8 STH
Feb 2023CAT 12 - 6 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAT
1465Overall1569
STH
ELO difference: -104 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

890Forwards766
Best: 1000CAT +124Best: 934
960Backs1020
Best: 1200STH +60Best: 1244
1000Halves610
Best: 1000CAT +390Best: 610
1080Hooker1000
CAT +80

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAT
Stat
STH
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
11.8pts
Avg Score
35.2pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
9.2pts
-4.2pts
Avg Margin
26.0pts
830.2m
Run Metres
1388.8m
2.6
Clean Breaks
7.2
209.2
Tackles
254.0
7.8
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Dragons
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

73%

St Helens predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: -9.8

3/4 match predictions correct