# Catalans Dragons v St Helens — Super League Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 13 – 14 St Helens

_St Helens edge Catalans Dragons in a one-point thriller._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 27% / St Helens 73% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 29 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Sam Tomkins (14'), Sam Tomkins (33') · St Helens: Tristan Sailor (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tristan Sailor (8' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 73% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Catalans Dragons 13–14 St Helens in Super League Round 6 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine minutes and twelve points. That's the gap St Helens built before Catalans Dragons had even settled into the game, and it's the number that decided this one: St Helens 14, Catalans Dragons 13, at Stade Gilbert Brutus.

Tristan Sailor did the damage inside that opening burst, scoring in the 5th minute and again in the 8th, with Mark Percival converting both. Just like that it was 0-12 and Catalans hadn't laid a glove on the scoreboard. Sam Tomkins hauled his side back into it with a try in the 14th, converted himself to make it 6-12, then another in the 33rd to bring it to 10-12 at the break. He added a penalty goal in the 62nd minute to level things at 12-12, but St Helens found the extra point they needed and Catalans couldn't find an answer.

Half-time was 10-12 in St Helens' favour, and the final margin barely moved from there. That's the story of the match in two lines: a fast start from St Helens, a stubborn chase from Catalans that got them agonisingly close but no further.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think Catalans should have won. St Helens ran for 1,266 metres to Catalans' 757, a gap of more than 500 metres. They broke the line four times to two, busted 28 tackles to 21, and offloaded eight times to seven. That's a side with the ball doing what it wanted for long stretches. But Catalans were far the tidier team, coughing up just 5 errors to St Helens' 10, and gave away only 2 penalties against St Helens' 6. Normally those numbers, discipline and ball security, win you a one-point game. This time the damage was already done before either of those categories mattered.

Sam Tomkins was Catalans' whole game in one player: two tries, the conversions, and the penalty goal that got them level at 12-12. Without him this isn't a one-point loss, it's a blowout. Tristan Sailor did the same job in reverse for St Helens, scoring twice in the first eight minutes and setting up a lead his side never fully surrendered.

The form lines going in make more sense of this now. St Helens arrived averaging 35.2 points a game across their last five with a margin of plus-26, while Catalans were sitting on 11.8 points scored and minus-4.2. St Helens' backs rated higher too, 1020 to 960, and their run metres and tackle busts on the day matched that recent output. Catalans' one clear edge was in the halves, rated 1000 to 610, and Tomkins made that count. It just wasn't quite enough to cover a 12-point start.

Alphr's model had St Helens winning by 9.8 points on a combined total of 49, giving them a 73 percent chance. The lean was right and the margin wasn't far off, given the game was decided by a single point. The total was the miss: 27 points played out against 49 tipped, a gap of 22. Four of fifteen markets landed on the night, including the 1-12 margin band. Not the model's sharpest outing, but it picked the winner and got the shape of the finish roughly right in a game that was tighter and stingier than expected.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 757 | Run metres | **1,266** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **28** |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| **5** | Errors | 10 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tries | 2 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 0 | Field Goals | 2 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 5 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.8 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 27 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 49. The model went 4/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (56/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 2 · St Helens 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 72.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 10 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 73% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 104 ELO points clear, 1569 to 1465. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has St Helens by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 49. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 11.8pts | Avg Score | 35.2pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Conceded | 9.2pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | 26.0pts |
| 830.2m | Run Metres | 1388.8m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 7.2 |
| 209.2 | Tackles | 254.0 |
| 7.8 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W | 11.8 |
| St Helens | R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L | 35.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | St Helens | 34 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | St Helens 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Catalans Dragons | 4 – 36 | St Helens | St Helens 56% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | St Helens | 40 – 0 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | St Helens | 24 – 12 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Catalans Dragons | 14 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 10th-ranked left edge attack (0.4 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 6th there (0.6 conceded/game). Key man: Robertson, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 6th) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.4/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 3 | 7 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 42m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 91.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 7 | 14 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 440m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 23/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.7% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 362m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.2/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 93.7% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.35/g (lg 0.35) +0% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.86) -21% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.17) -24%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.35) -6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 14' 33' |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/6g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.68 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.10 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/12g | 2/32g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Arthur Romano | INT | 0 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/32g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Franck Maria | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/13g | 3/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.83 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 5 in 5g | 5/5g (2·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.99 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.23 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Dayon Sambou | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.44 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.38 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.77 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 4 in 5g | 4/5g (4·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.08 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.83 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 8' |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Moses Mbye | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 12/33g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.92 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Daryl Clark | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1465 · St Helens 1569 · ELO difference: 104 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — St Helens predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)