# Castleford Tigers v Hull FC — Super League Round 6 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 14 – 24 Hull FC

_Hull FC grind down Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 50% / Hull FC 50% · The Jungle · Thu, 27 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Rowan Milnes (19'), Tex Hoy (71' Tipped ⚡), Joshua Simm (77' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Herman Ese'ese (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Aidan Sezer (27'), Tom Briscoe (35'), Lewis Martin (43' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 50% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.4 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 6 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Castleford Tigers 14–24 Hull FC in Super League Round 6 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC beat Castleford Tigers 24–14 at The Jungle. Hull FC led 18–6 at half-time and held on.

Herman Ese'ese opened the scoring; Castleford Tigers crossed through Rowan Milnes, Tex Hoy and Joshua Simm; Hull FC scored through Herman Ese'ese, Aidan Sezer, Tom Briscoe and Lewis Martin.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 50% prediction for Castleford Tigers, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.4 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. The model went 5/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Castleford Tigers to win — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Hull FC — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Castleford Tigers 1-12 — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull FC by 3 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Castleford Tigers and Hull FC. The model can't split them, landing on Castleford Tigers at 50%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull FC sit 62 ELO points clear, 1379 to 1317, so the model is backing Castleford Tigers against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull FC's way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The model still sides with Castleford Tigers, which says Forward Pack and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Hull FC by 3.4, with the two sides combining for about 40. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 15.4pts |
| 28.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -13.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 760.0m | Run Metres | 1083.0m |
| 3.6 | Clean Breaks | 2.0 |
| 179.6 | Tackles | 322.2 |
| 5.8 | Errors | 7.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L | 14.8 |
| Hull FC | R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R4 D · R5 W | 15.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Castleford Tigers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Hull FC | 14 – 18 | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC 56% ✗ |
| 2026 | R9 | Castleford Tigers | 10 – 50 | Hull FC | Castleford Tigers 60% ✗ |
| 2025 | R14 | Hull FC | 14 – 22 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 30 – 22 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull FC | 20 – 39 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.8 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 11th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Rooney, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.6/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 2/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.6/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 69m/g | 154m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80% | 90.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 13 | 7 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 459m/g | 426m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 10.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.7% | 81.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 4 | 4 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 194m/g | 356m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.1% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.17) +71% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.17) +82% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 71' |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.91 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Judah Rimbu | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Joshua Hodson | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Cain Robb | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Daniel Okoro | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Rapana | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Briscoe | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/20g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Davy Litten | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Ed Chamberlain | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 4 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.26 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Aidan Sezer | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 7 | Cade Cust | HB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.38 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.98 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 15% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.03 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.50 AI 20% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Brad Fash | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Logan Moy | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Samuel Eseh | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Will Kirby | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1317 · Hull FC 1379 · ELO difference: 62 in favour of Hull FC

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull FC |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull FC |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Castleford Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)