Castleford Tigers
Hull
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
50%
Hull
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Castleford Tigers a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Hull are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control, but Castleford Tigers counter with Forward Pack and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Hull carry a 62-point ELO rating advantage (1379 vs 1317). Recent form favours Hull with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Hull by 3.4 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Castleford Tigers to Win @2.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+15.9%
Line / Spread
Hull -3.4 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Hull 1-12 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L R3L R4W R5L older → newer | 14.8 |
Hull | R1W R2L R3W R4D R5W | 15.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.6
Castleford Tigers
18.8
Hull
Avg Margin
-13.8
Castleford Tigers
-3.4
Hull
Run Metres
760
Castleford Tigers
1083
Hull
Clean Breaks
3.6
Castleford Tigers
2.0
Hull
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: -3.4