# Wakefield Trinity v Hull FC — Super League Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 12 – 16 Hull FC

_Hull FC surge back to grind down Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 8 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 69% / Hull FC 31% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Fri, 21 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Jack Croft (8' 1st), Cameron Scott (72' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Herman Ese'ese (24'), Ed Chamberlain (59'), Lewis Martin (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | 69% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 31% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 12–16 Hull FC in Super League Round 5 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC edged Wakefield Trinity 16–12 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Trailing 8–6 at half-time, Hull FC flipped the game after the break.

Jack Croft opened the scoring; Wakefield Trinity crossed through Jack Croft and Cameron Scott; Hull FC scored through Herman Ese'ese, Ed Chamberlain and Lewis Martin.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 69% prediction for Wakefield Trinity, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.8 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 28 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 43. Hull FC trailed 8–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 12–16. The model went 2/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wakefield Trinity to win — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wakefield Trinity — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wakefield Trinity 1-12 — model probability 69.2% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wakefield Trinity by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wakefield Trinity here: 69% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wakefield Trinity sit 102 ELO points clear, 1451 to 1349.

On paper Hull FC shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Wakefield Trinity, which says ELO Difference and Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Wakefield Trinity by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Wakefield Trinity to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.5pts | Avg Score | 13.0pts |
| 17.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -1.5pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 984.8m | Run Metres | 1018.0m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 1.8 |
| 301.5 | Tackles | 298.8 |
| 10.5 | Errors | 6.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W | 15.5 |
| Hull FC | R27 L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R4 D | 13.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull FC lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull FC | 10 – 36 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 81% ✓ |
| 2026 | R4 | Wakefield Trinity | 14 – 10 | Hull FC | Wakefield Trinity 72% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Hull FC | 16 – 10 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R21 | Hull FC | 42 – 4 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R12 | Wakefield Trinity | 6 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 3rd-ranked middle attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 12th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Barron, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.25/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.75/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 2.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 9th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 84m/g | 174m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.7% | 89.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 6 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 402m/g | 467m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 11.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wakefield Trinity | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 298m/g | 339m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.5% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.17) +71% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53%
**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.14) +107% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Fullbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.17) +71%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Rourke | FB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Oliver Pratt | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.93 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.78 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Cameron Scott | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.53 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 72' |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.99 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.18 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 7 | Olly Russell | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.95 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 8' |
| 12 | Josh Griffin | 2R | no games | 7/10g (0·0·1·3·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.67 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.92 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ky Rodwell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Jordan Rapana | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.63 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zak Hardaker | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.09 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.95 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Knight | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Watts | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ed Chamberlain | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wakefield Trinity hold the ELO advantage (1451 vs 1349), but the market favours Hull FC (@2.00). The model sides with ELO, Wakefield Trinity predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1451 · Hull FC 1349 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull FC |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull FC |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull FC |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull FC |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)