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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • FRIDAY 21 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

1216
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Wakefield Trinity at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Wakefield TrinityFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

69%

Hull

31%

AI Match Overview

Wakefield Trinity are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. Hull are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control, but Wakefield Trinity counter with ELO Difference which tips the scales. Wakefield Trinity carry a 102-point ELO rating advantage (1451 vs 1349). The margin model predicts Wakefield Trinity by 3.8 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wakefield Trinity to Win @2.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.2%

Line / Spread

Wakefield Trinity +3.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wakefield Trinity 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1W
R2L
R3L
R4W

older → newer

14.8
Hull
R1W
R2L
R3W
R4D
13.0

Avg Conceded

24.8

Wakefield Trinity

21.2

Hull

Avg Margin

-10.0

Wakefield Trinity

-8.2

Hull

Run Metres

865

Wakefield Trinity

1018

Hull

Clean Breaks

2.4

Wakefield Trinity

1.8

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Hull lead 3-2
Mar 2026WAK 14 - 10 HUL
Jul 2025WAK 10 - 16 HUL
Aug 2023WAK 4 - 42 HUL
May 2023WAK 6 - 26 HUL
Aug 2022WAK 26 - 18 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Wakefield Trinity hold the ELO advantage (1451 vs 1349), but the market favours Hull (@2.00).

The model sides with ELO, Wakefield Trinity predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1451Overall1349
HUL
ELO difference: +102 in favour of Wakefield Trinity

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

911Forwards1000
Best: 1129HUL +89Best: 1581
715Backs836
Best: 792HUL +121Best: 966
800Halves859
Best: 800HUL +59Best: 859
1455Hooker1236
WAK +218

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
14.8pts
Avg Score
13.0pts
24.8pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-10.0pts
Avg Margin
-8.2pts
865.0m
Run Metres
1018.0m
2.4
Clean Breaks
1.8
277.4
Tackles
298.8
9.6
Errors
6.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Trinity
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Hull
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Hull
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Hull
7
H2H History6.0%
Hull

Model Confidence

69%

Wakefield Trinity predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.8

0/4 match predictions correct