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Super League | Round 5

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 21 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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STH

St Helens

1214
WAR

Warrington Wolves

❌ Upset — model favoured St Helens at 59%

AI Win Probability

59%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

59%

Warrington Wolves

41%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Warrington Wolves are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees St Helens ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. St Helens carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1593 vs 1568). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warrington Wolves. The margin model predicts St Helens by 9.8 points with a combined total of 37.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.53

Lost ✗

Edge

-6.0%

Line / Spread

St Helens +9.8 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4L

older → newer

37.2
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R2W
R3L
R4L
17.2

Avg Conceded

11.0

St Helens

22.4

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

26.2

St Helens

-5.2

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1378

St Helens

915

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

7.2

St Helens

2.2

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Warrington Wolves lead 5-0
Mar 2026STH 14 - 24 WAR
May 2025STH 18 - 32 WAR
Feb 2024STH 22 - 23 WAR
Sep 2024STH 2 - 16 WAR
Jul 2024STH 10 - 24 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1593Overall1568
WAR
ELO difference: +24 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

876Forwards883
Best: 1009EvenBest: 1040
976Backs911
Best: 1193STH +65Best: 1118
661Halves1023
Best: 661WAR +362Best: 1023
993Hooker627
STH +366

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
WAR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
37.2pts
Avg Score
17.2pts
11.0pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
26.2pts
Avg Margin
-5.2pts
1377.6m
Run Metres
915.4m
7.2
Clean Breaks
2.2
265.0
Tackles
288.0
8.2
Errors
6.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

59%

St Helens predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 37 · Line: +9.8

1/4 match predictions correct