# St Helens v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 12 – 14 Warrington Wolves

_Warrington Wolves hunt down St Helens in a tight one._

Half time: 2 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 59% / Warrington Wolves 41% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 21 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Morgan Knowles (47'), Dayon Sambou (57' Tipped ⚡) · Warrington Wolves: George Williams (20' 1st), Matty Ashton (51' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 59% | Lost |
| Warrington Wolves | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

St Helens 12–14 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 5 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model liked St Helens here, 59% and a 9.8-point win, on the back of a form line that read 3 wins from 5 against Warrington's 2. Warrington won 14-12. File that one under close, not correct.

The gap between the two halves tells you most of it. Warrington led 8-2 at the break and that's more or less where the model's read came apart. St Helens had the tools the numbers promised, a hooker rating of 993 against Warrington's 627, backs at 976 to 911, and it showed everywhere except the scoreboard. Warrington's halves pairing, rated 1023 to St Helens's 661, did the damage that actually counted.

George Williams got it going in the 20th minute, converted two minutes later, and Marc Sneyd added a penalty goal on 30 to make it 2-8 at the break. That's three scoring plays from Warrington's spine in ten minutes, which is exactly what a stacked halves rating is supposed to produce.

St Helens came out swinging in the second half. Morgan Knowles crossed in the 47th, Percival's conversion levelled it at 8-8 by the 49th minute, and for about two minutes this looked like the form team asserting itself. It didn't last. Matty Ashton scored two minutes later, Sneyd converted, and Warrington were back in front 14-8. Dayon Sambou pulled one back for St Helens in the 57th to make it a two-point game, and that's how it finished.

Look at the stat sheet and you'll wonder how St Helens lost. They ran for 1,205 metres to Warrington's 679, nearly double. They broke the line four times to one, busted 32 tackles to 17. By recent-form logic, averaging 1377.6 running metres and 7.2 clean breaks a game, this was St Helens doing exactly what St Helens do. Warrington, averaging just 915.4 metres over their last five, were nowhere near their own recent output and it didn't matter.

What actually decided it was the ball. St Helens coughed it up 11 times, Warrington only 5. Discipline went the other way, St Helens conceding 4 penalties to Warrington's 5, but it wasn't enough to offset the volume of errors. In a game decided by two points, eleven turnovers against five is the kind of margin that swallows a 526-metre running advantage whole.

Warrington's form line coming in was rough, LWWLL across the last five with an average margin of minus 5.2. None of that showed up in the moments that mattered. Their halves controlled the middle two quarters of the match, Williams and Sneyd combined for a try, two conversions and a penalty goal, and that was enough scoreboard pressure to survive St Helens's third-quarter reply.

The model's pre-match number wasn't far off in absolute terms, tipping St Helens by 9.8 in a match that finished within two points either way. It just had the wrong team on top. Warrington's spine won the arm-wrestle that the running stats say St Helens should have. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,205** | Run metres | 679 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **32** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 11 | Errors | **5** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 3/3 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 11 | Errors | 5 |

**Model Report Card**

Warrington Wolves defied the model's 59% prediction for St Helens, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (34/100) — penalties St Helens 4 · Warrington Wolves 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 59.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 10 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 59%, but Warrington Wolves stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 24 ELO points clear, 1593 to 1568. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warrington Wolves.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 37. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 11.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 26.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 1377.6m | Run Metres | 915.4m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 2.2 |
| 265.0 | Tackles | 288.0 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 6.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L | 37.2 |
| Warrington Wolves | L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L · R4 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warrington Wolves lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | St Helens | 6 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 72% ✓ |
| 2026 | R1 | Warrington Wolves | 24 – 14 | St Helens | St Helens 61% ✗ |
| 2025 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 32 – 18 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 22 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Warrington Wolves | 16 – 2 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.5 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 10th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 3.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 244m/g | 139m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 90% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 3 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.8/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 327m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 24/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80% | 81.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 380m/g | 288m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94% | 94.6% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.24) +8% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.11) +0%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.36) +0% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.86) -22% · Halfbacks 0.1/g (lg 0.14) -29%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/13g | 34/55g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.41 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 5 in 4g | 5/4g (2·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.62 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 17/43g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Dayon Sambou | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.69 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 13/55g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 4 in 4g | 4/4g (4·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/2g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.64 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/18g | 9/47g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 5/18g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/46g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 7/29g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.65 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Matt Whitley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 3/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 47' |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/32g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/23g | 8% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 4/17g | 2/7g | 44% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 2 in 3g | 15/10g (1·1·1·3·3·2·2·1·0·1) | 6/10g | 2/5g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.11 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 0/7g | 32% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Zane Musgrove | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Currie | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/20g | 2/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | James Harrison | LK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 2/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/20g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Max Wood | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1593 · Warrington Wolves 1568 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of St Helens

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — St Helens predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)