Skip to main content

Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

SALFORD COMMUNITY STADIUM • THURSDAY 20 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
SAL

Salford Red Devils

2310
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

✅ Model correct — backed Salford Red Devils at 57%

AI Win Probability

57%Salford Red DevilsFavourite

Salford Red Devils

57%

Huddersfield Giants

43%

AI Match Overview

Salford Red Devils hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Huddersfield Giants are far from out of this at 43%. Huddersfield Giants are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage, but Salford Red Devils counter with Backline Quality and H2H History which tips the scales. Recent form favours Huddersfield Giants with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Salford Red Devils by 3.8 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Salford Red Devils to Win @3.00

Winner ✓

Edge

+24.1%

Line / Spread

Salford Red Devils +3.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Salford Red Devils 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Salford Red Devils
R1L
R2L
R3L
R4L

older → newer

5.2
Huddersfield Giants
R1L
R2L
R3L
R4L
16.8

Avg Conceded

38.4

Salford Red Devils

21.8

Huddersfield Giants

Avg Margin

-33.2

Salford Red Devils

-5.0

Huddersfield Giants

Run Metres

553

Salford Red Devils

634

Huddersfield Giants

Clean Breaks

1.6

Salford Red Devils

2.8

Huddersfield Giants

H2H History (Last 5)Salford Red Devils lead 3-2
Sep 2025SAL 8 - 22 HUD
Feb 2024SAL 18 - 16 HUD
Aug 2024SAL 60 - 10 HUD
Jul 2024SAL 8 - 16 HUD
Aug 2023SAL 32 - 8 HUD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SAL
1350Overall1353
HUD
ELO difference: -3 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

771Forwards880
Best: 1000HUD +109Best: 1045
845Backs811
Best: 978SAL +35Best: 942
800Halves800
Best: 800EvenBest: 800
600Hooker655
HUD +55

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SAL
Stat
HUD
0.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
5.2pts
Avg Score
16.8pts
38.4pts
Avg Conceded
21.8pts
-33.2pts
Avg Margin
-5.0pts
553.0m
Run Metres
634.2m
1.6
Clean Breaks
2.8
216.0
Tackles
231.2
6.2
Errors
6.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Giants
5
Halves Control9.0%
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Giants
7
H2H History6.0%
Devils

Model Confidence

57%

Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +3.8

3/4 match predictions correct