# Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors — Super League Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 12 – 10 Wigan Warriors

_Leeds Rhinos charge down Wigan Warriors in a tight one._

Half time: 6 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 26% / Wigan Warriors 74% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sat, 22 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Riley Lumb (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Sinfield (66') · Wigan Warriors: Liam Marshall (39' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (49' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 74% | Lost |
| Leeds Rhinos | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.5 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 12–10 Wigan Warriors in Super League Round 5 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr had Wigan Warriors winning this by 10.5 points, part of a 74% lean backed by a rating of 1733 to 1493. Leeds Rhinos won it by 2. That's the sort of gap between forecast and finish that makes you go back and check the numbers again, so let's do that.

The form lines pointed one way. Wigan came in on a WLWWW run, averaging 29.4 points a game and conceding under 10. Leeds had been LLWWL, leaking 16.2 a game with an average margin of minus 3.4. On paper this was a mismatch, and Wigan's backline rating of 1005 against Leeds' 849 said the points would come out wide. None of that showed up on the scoreboard.

What did show up was Leeds controlling the ball. 1,194 running metres to Wigan's 1,004 is a decent shift for the forward pack, and it lines up with the pre-match forward rating, 854 to 766 in Leeds' favour. Riley Lumb got the platform moving early, crossing in the 10th minute for a 4-0 lead, and Jake Connor's penalty goal in the 27th stretched it to 6-0. Leeds took a 6-4 buffer into the sheds off the back of that territory game, not off any real spark in the backs.

Wigan's response came from exactly where the ratings said it should. Liam Marshall crossed just before the break to make it 6-4, then Bevan French struck in the 49th to put Wigan in front for the only time all match, 6-8, with Harry Smith's conversion pushing it to 6-10. Three line breaks to one for Wigan tells the story of that period. When the gaps opened, they were the side finishing them off.

But line breaks aren't much use if you can't hold onto the footy, and this is where Wigan's read fell over. Ten offloads to Leeds' seven suggests some ambition, yet five penalties conceded to Leeds' one meant they kept handing back field position they'd fought hard to win. Leeds capitalised. Jack Sinfield crossed in the 66th minute to level it at 10-10, Connor's conversion a minute later made it 12-10, and that's how it stayed.

Wigan finished tidier with ball in hand, 10 errors to Leeds' 13, and by most pre-match logic that should have been enough given the gap in scoring form. It wasn't, because discipline decided the arm-wrestle. One penalty conceded against five is a heavy imbalance in a two-point game, and it's hard to find a bigger single number in the whole sheet.

So the model's read on team quality wasn't wrong exactly, Wigan did produce the line breaks and the cleaner ball-handling the ratings suggested they would. It just didn't account for Leeds owning the middle of the field by 190 metres and Wigan giving away five penalties in a match decided by two points. Alphr went 4 from 15 on this round. This one belongs filed under: sometimes the favourite does everything right except the one thing that mattered.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,194** | Run metres | 1,004 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **34** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 13 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Leeds Rhinos defied the model's 74% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 2 points. The game's 22 points came in 23 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Controversial** (65/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 1 · Wigan Warriors 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 74.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 74% to see off Leeds Rhinos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 240 ELO points clear, 1733 to 1493. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Leeds Rhinos.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 10.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 16.2pts | Avg Conceded | 9.8pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | 19.6pts |
| 1025.6m | Run Metres | 1219.2m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.8 |
| 289.6 | Tackles | 323.4 |
| 7.2 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R27 L · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L | 19.6 |
| Wigan Warriors | W · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 40 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 59% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 24 – 4 | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R27 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 6 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Wigan Warriors | 38 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Leeds Rhinos | 30 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Handley, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.5 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 3.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 1 | 5 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 93m/g | 169m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.5% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 13 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 436m/g | 486m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.3/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 79.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 3 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 316m/g | 355m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 12/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 93.2% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · 2nd Rows 0.16/g (lg 0.24) -33% · Halfbacks 0.08/g (lg 0.14) -43%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Centres 0.38/g (lg 0.35) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lachlan Miller | FB | no games | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/13g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 3 in 4g | 5/9g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.31 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 6/13g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/14g | 8/10g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.53 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/19g | 2/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.04 AI 25% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.66 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Brodie Croft | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Connor | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/19g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jarrod O'Connor | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Gannon | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bevan French | FB | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (0·1·2·2·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Zach Eckersley | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Wardle | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 6/9g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.04 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Liam Marshall | CE | 2 in 4g | 9/10g (0·2·1·2·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 1/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.77 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Jack Farrimond | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.76 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Liam Byrne | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Kruise Leeming | PR | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Luke Thompson | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Nsemba | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 7/17g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.04 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kaide Ellis | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Mago | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Walters | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Forber | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Douglas | INT | no games | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1493 · Wigan Warriors 1733 · ELO difference: 240 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)