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Super League | Round 5

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AMT HEADINGLEY STADIUM • SATURDAY 22 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
LEE

Leeds Rhinos

1210
WIG

Wigan Warriors

❌ Upset — model favoured Wigan Warriors at 74%

AI Win Probability

74%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Leeds Rhinos

26%

Wigan Warriors

74%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leeds Rhinos. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Wigan Warriors carry a 240-point ELO rating advantage (1733 vs 1493). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Leeds Rhinos. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 10.5 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.38

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -10.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leeds Rhinos
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4L

older → newer

19.6
Wigan Warriors
R1L
R2W
R3W
R4W
29.4

Avg Conceded

16.2

Leeds Rhinos

9.8

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

3.4

Leeds Rhinos

19.6

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1026

Leeds Rhinos

1219

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

2.6

Leeds Rhinos

5.8

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 4-1
May 2026LEE 4 - 24 WIG
Sep 2025LEE 6 - 22 WIG
Sep 2024LEE 0 - 38 WIG
Aug 2024LEE 30 - 4 WIG
Sep 2023LEE 0 - 50 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEE
1493Overall1733
WIG
ELO difference: -240 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

854Forwards766
Best: 1118LEE +88Best: 974
849Backs1005
Best: 984WIG +156Best: 1096
852Halves745
Best: 852LEE +107Best: 745
631Hooker860
WIG +229

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEE
Stat
WIG
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
19.6pts
Avg Score
29.4pts
16.2pts
Avg Conceded
9.8pts
3.4pts
Avg Margin
19.6pts
1025.6m
Run Metres
1219.2m
2.6
Clean Breaks
5.8
289.6
Tackles
323.4
7.2
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Rhinos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
Rhinos
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Rhinos
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

74%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -10.5

0/4 match predictions correct