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Super League | Round 5

alphr.com.au

SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • SUNDAY 23 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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HKR

Hull KR

300
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 76%

AI Win Probability

76%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

76%

Leigh Leopards

24%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Leigh Leopards. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 94-point ELO rating advantage (1723 vs 1629). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Leigh Leopards. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 11.4 points with a combined total of 36.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.35

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.3%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +11.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4W

older → newer

19.4
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2W
R3W
R4D
16.2

Avg Conceded

9.8

Hull KR

15.2

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

9.6

Hull KR

1.0

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1154

Hull KR

1150

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

4.2

Hull KR

3.6

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 4-1
May 2026HKR 20 - 16 LEI
Jul 2025HKR 10 - 28 LEI
Feb 2024HKR 12 - 0 LEI
Sep 2024HKR 24 - 0 LEI
Feb 2023HKR 20 - 6 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1723Overall1629
LEI
ELO difference: +94 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

886Forwards862
Best: 1089HKR +24Best: 1107
1020Backs1253
Best: 1152LEI +233Best: 1600
906Halves866
Best: 906HKR +40Best: 866
1000Hooker600
HKR +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
LEI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
19.4pts
Avg Score
16.2pts
9.8pts
Avg Conceded
15.2pts
9.6pts
Avg Margin
1.0pts
1153.6m
Run Metres
1149.8m
4.2
Clean Breaks
3.6
296.2
Tackles
285.2
9.0
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

76%

Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 36 · Line: +11.4

3/4 match predictions correct