# Hull KR v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 30 – 0 Leigh Leopards

_Hull KR outfox Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 76% / Leigh Leopards 24% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sun, 23 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Oliver Gildart (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Mikey Lewis (13' Tipped ⚡), Kelepi Tanginoa (34'), Mikey Lewis (39' Tipped ⚡), Tom Davies (68' Tipped ⚡) · Leigh Leopards: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 76% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.4 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Hull KR 30–0 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 5 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards actually looked after the ball better than Hull KR on Saturday. Nine errors to Hull KR's ten, the kind of stat that should buy you a share of the arm wrestle. Instead they walked out of Sewell Group Craven Park having shipped 30 points without troubling the scoreboard once. Ball security was never the problem. Everything else was.

Final score: Hull KR 30, Leigh Leopards 0. Not close, and not competitive for long. Hull KR led 22-0 at half-time, and that gap tells you most of what you need to know about when this game was actually won.

Oliver Gildart got Hull KR going in the 6th minute. By the 14th they were out to 10-0 through Mikey Lewis, who would finish the day with two tries and the boot doing plenty of the rest. Kelepi Tanginoa crossed in the 34th to make it 16-0, then Lewis grabbed his second try right on the stroke of half-time to send Hull KR in at 22-0. The second half added gloss rather than drama: Lewis slotted a penalty goal in the 65th, Tom Davies scored in the 68th, and the conversion took it out to the final 30-0. Most of the damage was done well before the break, not after it.

The line break count explains the gulf better than anything else on the sheet. Hull KR broke the line six times to Leigh's two, and turned that into 1,240 running metres against 972. Add 48 tackle busts to Leigh's 32, and 13 offloads to 9, and you've got a side that kept finding space Leigh's defence couldn't close down. Leigh's discipline didn't help either: six penalties conceded to Hull KR's four, cheap field position handed over at bad times.

Some of that gap was written into the sheets before kick-off. Leigh actually rated stronger out wide, 1253 to 1020 in the backs, but Hull KR held the edge everywhere else that matters up front: forwards 886 to 862, halves 906 to 866, and hooker was no contest at all, 1000 to 600. A dominant spine tends to dictate territory and go-forward long before the backs get a look in, and that's roughly how this played out.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| **1,240** | Run metres | 972 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **48** | Tackle busts | 32 |
| **13** | Offloads | 9 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 0 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 6 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 30 points. Total score prediction of 36 was close to the actual 30, within 6 points. Hull KR led 22–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 5/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (17/100) — penalties Hull KR 4 · Leigh Leopards 6.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 76.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 11 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 76% to see off Leigh Leopards. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 94 ELO points clear, 1723 to 1629. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Leigh Leopards.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 11.4, with the two sides combining for about 36. Hull KR to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 16.2pts |
| 9.8pts | Avg Conceded | 15.2pts |
| 9.6pts | Avg Margin | 1.0pts |
| 1153.6m | Run Metres | 1149.8m |
| 4.2 | Clean Breaks | 3.6 |
| 296.2 | Tackles | 285.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 W | 19.4 |
| Leigh Leopards | L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W · R4 D | 16.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R15 | Hull KR | 22 – 8 | Leigh Leopards | Hull KR 83% ✓ |
| 2026 | R11 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 20 | Hull KR | Hull KR 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R18 | Leigh Leopards | 28 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull KR | 12 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2024 | R26 | Leigh Leopards | 0 – 24 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 2nd there (0.5 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 7th there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 7th) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.25/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 0 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 121m/g | 132m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 11 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 601m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 22.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 85.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 1 | 2 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 236m/g | 399m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.6% | 94.9% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Five-Eighths 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.23) +13% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 6/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 3 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/8g | 2/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.99 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 68' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/15g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/2g | 3/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.93 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $30.85 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 4g | 10/10g (4·1·0·1·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 11/12g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.95 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 7/8g | 17/35g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.95 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.96 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' 39' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/23g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/32g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 10/26g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 6/39g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 3/16g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.24 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 32% | — | 🏉 34' |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.03 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.51 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.21 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 4 in 4g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.87 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Alec Tuitavake | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/18g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Aaron Pene | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1723 · Leigh Leopards 1629 · ELO difference: 94 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)