Castleford Tigers
Catalans Dragons
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
50%
Catalans Dragons
50%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Catalans Dragons a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Catalans Dragons ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Catalans Dragons carry a 91-point ELO rating advantage (1437 vs 1346). Recent form favours Catalans Dragons with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Catalans Dragons by 1.6 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Catalans Dragons to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.9%
Line / Spread
Catalans Dragons -1.6 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Catalans Dragons 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L R3L R4W older → newer | 16.0 |
Catalans Dragons | R1L R2L R3L R4W | 11.4 |
Avg Conceded
30.2
Castleford Tigers
16.0
Catalans Dragons
Avg Margin
-14.2
Castleford Tigers
-4.6
Catalans Dragons
Run Metres
707
Castleford Tigers
792
Catalans Dragons
Clean Breaks
2.6
Castleford Tigers
3.2
Catalans Dragons
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
50%
Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: -1.6