# Castleford Tigers v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 5 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 4 – 26 Catalans Dragons

_Catalans Dragons scorch Castleford Tigers._

Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 50% / Catalans Dragons 50% · The Jungle · Sat, 22 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Innes Senior (68') · Catalans Dragons: Tevita Pangai Junior (17' 1st), Alrix Da Costa (21'), Fouad Yaha (46' Tipped ⚡), Sam Tomkins (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | 50% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 50% | Won |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.6 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 5 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:11 pm_

Castleford Tigers 4–26 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 5 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Catalans Dragons as 1.6-point favourites, a combined total near 40. It called the winner. It had no idea what was coming. Catalans Dragons won 26-4 at The Jungle, a 22-point gap where the model saw a whisker.

The read on the win was fine. The read on the margin wasn't close, and the story of the match explains why.

Tevita Pangai Junior got Catalans Dragons moving in the 17th minute, and four minutes later Alrix Da Costa had them out to 8-0. Sam Tomkins added the conversion and then two penalty goals either side of the half-hour mark, and by the 39th minute it was 0-14 without Castleford Tigers troubling the scoreboard at all. Fouad Yaha crossed in the 46th to push it to 0-20, and Tomkins finished the job himself with a try in the 59th before Castleford Tigers finally got on the board through Innes Senior in the 68th. By then it was 4-26 and the contest had long since been settled.

The pre-match form lines pointed at exactly this kind of gap. Catalans Dragons came in having won two of their last five to Castleford Tigers' one, conceding an average of 16 points a game against Castleford Tigers shipping 30.2. Those numbers matched the finish better than the model's headline margin did.

Look at the halves and hooker ratings and the result stops looking like an upset at all. Catalans Dragons held a big edge in the halves, 1000 to 682, and at hooker, 725 to 600. Castleford Tigers were rated stronger up front and in the backs on paper, 949 to 896 and 936 to 851, but none of that mattered when Catalans Dragons controlled the ball. Tackle busts told the story on their own: Catalans Dragons broke through 38 times to Castleford Tigers' 20, nearly double, and out-gained them on run metres 855 to 763.

Castleford Tigers actually won the line break count, 5 to 1, which sounds like a positive until you realise it produced one try in the whole match. Breaks without finish are just territory. Catalans Dragons needed fewer clean line breaks because their carries were doing damage every time the ball was in hand, hence the tackle bust gulf.

Discipline and ball control both went the Dragons' way too. Catalans Dragons conceded only 2 penalties to Castleford Tigers' 4, and coughed the ball up just 4 times against Castleford Tigers' 7. When one side is cleaner with the ball and better at forcing extra go-forward out of a tackle, a two-score margin turns into something much heavier very quickly.

Castleford Tigers' form line coming in was one win from five, and this had the same shape as most of that run: outmuscled, error prone, chasing a scoreboard that got away early and stayed away. Innes Senior's try in the 68th was something, not nothing.

The model got the winner right, which is the easy half of the job. Getting Catalans Dragons only 1.6 points clear when the eventual gap was 22 is the kind of miss that shows up in the ledger. Alphr's tracking has it at 2 from 15 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was filed under the second column.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 763 | Run metres | **855** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 20 | Tackle busts | **38** |
| **4** | Offloads | 3 |
| 7 | Errors | **4** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 0/1 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 7 | Errors | 4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Catalans Dragons to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.6 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (21/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 4 · Catalans Dragons 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Catalans Dragons to win — model probability 50.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Catalans Dragons — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Catalans Dragons 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Catalans Dragons by 2 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Castleford Tigers and Catalans Dragons. The model can't split them, landing on Catalans Dragons at 50%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Catalans Dragons sit 91 ELO points clear, 1437 to 1346. Form leans Catalans Dragons' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Castleford Tigers.

Catalans Dragons own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Catalans Dragons by 1.6, with the two sides combining for about 40. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 11.4pts |
| 30.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -14.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.6pts |
| 706.8m | Run Metres | 791.6m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 3.2 |
| 163.8 | Tackles | 205.0 |
| 5.6 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R27 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W | 16.0 |
| Catalans Dragons | R27 W · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L · R4 W | 11.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Catalans Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 34 | Catalans Dragons | Catalans Dragons 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R14 | Catalans Dragons | 34 – 28 | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons 51% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Catalans Dragons | 38 – 4 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |
| 2024 | R18 | Castleford Tigers | 24 – 18 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R5 | Catalans Dragons | 40 – 14 | Castleford Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 8th-ranked left edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Cini, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.5 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Laguerre, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th (weak)) | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 71m/g | 41m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 85.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 473m/g | 480m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.8/g | 14.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 86.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 4 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 178m/g | 167m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 95.3% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.35) -6%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.17) +82% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.11) +55%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tex Hoy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.99 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.24 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.71 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Rowan Milnes | HB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.92 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Liam Horne | LK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Judah Rimbu | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Sylvester Namo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Tomkins | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Fouad Yaha | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.11 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.02 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.04 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Guillermo Aispuro-bichet | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Alrix Da Costa | HK | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Ben Garcia | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Arthur Romano | INT | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1346 · Catalans Dragons 1437 · ELO difference: 91 in favour of Catalans Dragons

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 50%** — Castleford Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:11 UTC (latest tip update)