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Super League | Round 4

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HALLIWELL JONES STADIUM • SUNDAY 9 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WAR

Warrington Wolves

1630
WAK

Wakefield Trinity

❌ Upset — model favoured Warrington Wolves at 80%

AI Win Probability

80%Warrington WolvesFavourite

Warrington Wolves

80%

Wakefield Trinity

20%

AI Match Overview

Warrington Wolves are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees Warrington Wolves ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Warrington Wolves carry a 215-point ELO rating advantage (1617 vs 1403). Recent form favours Warrington Wolves with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts Warrington Wolves by 10.1 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warrington Wolves to Win @1.35

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.4%

Line / Spread

Warrington Wolves +10.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warrington Wolves 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R2W
R3L

older → newer

18.6
Wakefield Trinity
R1W
R2L
R3L
12.6

Avg Conceded

20.8

Warrington Wolves

25.6

Wakefield Trinity

Avg Margin

-2.2

Warrington Wolves

-13.0

Wakefield Trinity

Run Metres

927

Warrington Wolves

792

Wakefield Trinity

Clean Breaks

2.6

Warrington Wolves

1.6

Wakefield Trinity

H2H History (Last 5)Wakefield Trinity lead 3-2
Mar 2026WAR 27 - 16 WAK
May 2025WAR 10 - 40 WAK
Jul 2023WAR 6 - 42 WAK
May 2023WAR 32 - 18 WAK
Jun 2022WAR 24 - 30 WAK
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAR
1617Overall1403
WAK
ELO difference: +215 in favour of Warrington Wolves

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

838Forwards922
Best: 1097WAK +84Best: 1146
760Backs685
Best: 867WAR +75Best: 742
1104Halves641
Best: 1104WAR +463Best: 641
636Hooker673
WAK +36

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAR
Stat
WAK
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.6pts
Avg Score
12.6pts
20.8pts
Avg Conceded
25.6pts
-2.2pts
Avg Margin
-13.0pts
927.2m
Run Metres
792.4m
2.6
Clean Breaks
1.6
277.0
Tackles
277.8
6.6
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Wolves
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Wolves
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Wolves
5
Halves Control9.0%
Wolves
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Wolves
7
H2H History6.0%
Trinity

Model Confidence

80%

Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +10.1

0/4 match predictions correct