# Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity — Super League Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warrington Wolves 16 – 30 Wakefield Trinity

_Wakefield Trinity see off Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warrington Wolves 80% / Wakefield Trinity 20% · Halliwell Jones Stadium · Sun, 09 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Alfie Johnson (24' Tipped ⚡), Josh Thewlis (64') · Wakefield Trinity: Jack Croft (17'), Liam Hood (27'), Matty Russell (45'), Matty Storton (53'), Caleb Uele (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | 80% | Lost |
| Wakefield Trinity | 20% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 10.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warrington Wolves vs Wakefield Trinity Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Warrington Wolves 16–30 Wakefield Trinity in Super League Round 4 at Halliwell Jones Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Warrington Wolves at 80% to win this one, favourites by 1617 to 1403 in the ratings and expected to win by just over 10 points. Wakefield Trinity won by 14. So the model wasn't just wrong on the winner, it had the margin pointing the wrong way entirely.

The early stages actually backed the read. Arron Lindop crossed inside two minutes for Warrington and it looked like the halves gap, 1104 to 641 in the ratings, might tell early. But Jack Croft levelled it by the 17th minute and from there the game turned into a genuine arm wrestle. Warrington regained the lead through Alfie Johnson in the 24th minute, Liam Hood dragged it level again three minutes later, and Wakefield went to the break in front, 10 to 12. Three lead changes and a scoreline that flipped four times in half an hour is not what an 80% favourite tag usually produces.

The second half is where the model's read fell apart completely. Wakefield scored four unanswered tries between the 45th and 59th minute: Matty Russell, Matty Storton and Caleb Uele all crossed, with Max Jowitt slotting every conversion. That's 20 unanswered points across a 14-minute stretch of the second half. Josh Thewlis got one back for Warrington in the 64th minute, converting his own try, but by then it was too little to matter.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did. Wakefield ran for 1,009 metres to Warrington's 792, broke the line six times to one, and busted 34 tackles to Warrington's 14. That's not a marginal edge. Wakefield's forward pack, rated the stronger unit pre-match at 922 to Warrington's 838, found the space that showed up all afternoon in those bust and break numbers.

**Key Match Stats**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 792 | Run metres | **1,009** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 14 | Tackle busts | **34** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **8** | Errors | 13 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2/3 | Goals | 5/5 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 13 |

**Model Report Card**

Wakefield Trinity defied the model's 80% prediction for Warrington Wolves, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 14 points. Wakefield Trinity led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (26/100) — penalties Warrington Wolves 4 · Wakefield Trinity 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warrington Wolves to win — model probability 79.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warrington Wolves — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warrington Wolves 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warrington Wolves by 10 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warrington Wolves here: 80% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warrington Wolves sit 215 ELO points clear, 1617 to 1403. Form leans Warrington Wolves' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Wakefield Trinity.

Warrington Wolves own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Warrington Wolves by 10.1, with the two sides combining for about 40. Warrington Wolves to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warrington Wolves | Stat | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.6pts | Avg Score | 10.7pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 17.3pts |
| -2.2pts | Avg Margin | -6.7pts |
| 927.2m | Run Metres | 976.7m |
| 2.6 | Clean Breaks | 1.7 |
| 277.0 | Tackles | 324.3 |
| 6.6 | Errors | 9.7 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warrington Wolves | W · L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L | 18.6 |
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 10.7 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wakefield Trinity lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Warrington Wolves | 10 – 23 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 53% ✓ |
| 2026 | R26 | Wakefield Trinity | 25 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Warrington Wolves 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R3 | Warrington Wolves | 27 – 16 | Wakefield Trinity | Warrington Wolves 54% ✓ |
| 2025 | R11 | Wakefield Trinity | 40 – 10 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Wakefield Trinity | 42 – 6 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 3 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the right edge: Super League's 6th-ranked right edge attack (0.67 tries/game) runs at a Wakefield Trinity defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: King, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Wakefield Trinity's best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 9th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Jowitt, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.33/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 9th (weak)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 7th) | 0.33/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 80m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 1.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 93.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 380m/g | 427m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.1% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warrington Wolves | Wakefield Trinity |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 1 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 273m/g | 289m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.2% | 95% |

**Who scores on Wakefield Trinity** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.13) +131% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.09) +89% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76%
**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Halfbacks 0.17/g (lg 0.13) +31% · 2nd Rows 0.27/g (lg 0.23) +17% · Props 0.1/g (lg 0.11) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Halliwell Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cai Taylor-Wray | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 18/38g | 30% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Arron Lindop | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.52 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $20.97 AI 22% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 4 | Rodrick Tai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.05 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alfie Johnson | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $23.68 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 6 | George Williams | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 11/33g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Stefan Ratchford | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | James Harrison | PR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 26% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 9/47g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Currie | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 13/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Luke Yates | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/19g | 3/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/39g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Adam Holroyd | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 17% | — | — |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $25.17 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Matty Russell | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/10g | 30% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.99 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 8/13g | 3/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.96 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mason Lino | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Trueman | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 2/6g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.80 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 59' |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 10 | Matty Storton | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 4% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 11 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.46 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.58 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jack Croft | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Mike McMeeken | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Renouf Atoni | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mathieu Cozza | INT | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Harvey Smith | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Caius Faatili | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warrington Wolves 1617 · Wakefield Trinity 1403 · ELO difference: 215 in favour of Warrington Wolves

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Warrington Wolves |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wakefield Trinity |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Warrington Wolves predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)