# St Helens v Hull KR — Super League Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: St Helens 10 – 20 Hull KR

_Hull KR fly past St Helens._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: St Helens 56% / Hull KR 44% · The BrewDog Stadium · Fri, 07 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — St Helens: Curtis Sironen (30'), Jack Welsby (65' Tipped ⚡) · Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tom Davies (37'), Oliver Gildart (48'), Oliver Gildart (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 56% | Lost |
| Hull KR | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St Helens vs Hull KR Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

St Helens 10–20 Hull KR in Super League Round 4 at The BrewDog Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull KR led 10-6 at the break at The BrewDog Stadium, and rather than St Helens hauling it back, the second half just confirmed what the first had already suggested. Final score: Hull KR 20, St Helens 10. No twist in the tail here.

The shape of it was set early. Mikey Lewis crossed in the 9th minute to get Hull KR moving, and St Helens spent the rest of the half chasing that four points down. Curtis Sironen levelled it at 4-4 in the 30th, Mark Percival's conversion nudged the home side in front at 6-4, and for about seven minutes St Helens actually led. Then Tom Davies scored in the 37th and Lewis's conversion made it 6-10 at the break. That's as close as St Helens got all night.

The third quarter is where the game left the building. Oliver Gildart scored twice inside five minutes, in the 48th and 51st, and with Lewis's boot doing its job the margin blew out to 6-20. Jack Welsby's try in the 65th made the final score respectable at 10-20, but by then Hull KR had banked 14 unanswered points across that stretch and the contest was already decided.

Look at the stat sheet and it lines up with what happened on the scoreboard. St Helens actually shaded the run metres, 1,119 to 1,083, but that was about the only category they won. Hull KR broke the line twice to St Helens' one, busted 49 tackles to 40, and offloaded 10 times to 9. St Helens leaked 10 errors to Hull KR's 6, and against a side that clinical with the ball, that gap in discipline was always going to cost them.

The positional numbers explain some of it too. St Helens went in rated stronger through the backs (1093 to 867) and at hooker (1118 to 1000), but Hull KR held the edge up front, 898 to 872 in the forwards, and in the halves, 823 to 788. On the night, the forward and halves advantage translated directly into field position and the tries that mattered.

Form lines told a slightly different story going in. St Helens had been the more prolific side across their last five, averaging 37.6 points a game to Hull KR's 17.4, and their average margin of 27 points dwarfed Hull KR's 8. But Hull KR arrived with the better recent record, four wins from five against St Helens' three, and tackled more too, 303.8 to 260.2. On this occasion, the tighter, more defensively organised side got the points on the board where it counted.

Alphr's model had St Helens favourites at 56%, expecting them to win by 3.6 points on a combined total near 41. Hull KR won by 10. The margin call was off by more than six points, and the model's gone 3 from 15 on this one. A reminder that ratings are a starting point, not a guarantee, and Hull KR made that point themselves on the scoreboard.

**Key Match Stats**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| **1,119** | Run metres | 1,083 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **2** |
| 40 | Tackle busts | **49** |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| 10 | Errors | **6** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/2 | Goals | 2/4 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 6 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull KR defied the model's 56% prediction for St Helens, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (18/100) — penalties St Helens 5 · Hull KR 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 56.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

St Helens are the call at 56%, but Hull KR stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Hull KR sit 87 ELO points clear, 1702 to 1615, so the model is backing St Helens against the ratings gap. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for St Helens.

On paper Hull KR shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with St Helens, which says Backline Quality and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has St Helens by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean St Helens, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| St Helens | Stat | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 37.6pts | Avg Score | 17.4pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Conceded | 9.4pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.0pts |
| 1317.0m | Run Metres | 1168.6m |
| 7.2 | Clean Breaks | 4.6 |
| 260.2 | Tackles | 303.8 |
| 7.6 | Errors | 9.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | R27 L · L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W | 37.6 |
| Hull KR | W · L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W | 17.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Hull KR | St Helens 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull KR | 52 – 10 | St Helens | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | SF | Hull KR | 20 – 12 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Hull KR | 34 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- St Helens' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (4.33 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Sailor, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull KR's best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 4th there (0.33 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 4.33/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 3.33/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 0 | 1 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 265m/g | 119m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 94.9% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 0 | 8 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 3.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 531m/g | 470m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 24.7/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 5/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 89% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | St Helens | Hull KR |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 1 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 394m/g | 262m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 95.2% | 94.3% |

**Who scores on Hull KR** — Props 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.23) +9%
**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.33/g (lg 0.35) -6% · Wingers 0.67/g (lg 0.86) -22% · Halfbacks 0.1/g (lg 0.13) -23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The BrewDog Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/10g | 33/54g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.14 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 65' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 3 in 3g | 3/3g (1·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.93 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 5 in 3g | 5/3g (2·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/1g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.22 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.71 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 17/42g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.08 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jonny Lomax | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/9g | 13/54g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.17 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Tristan Sailor | HB | 4 in 3g | 4/3g (4·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.94 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 9/46g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/16g | 5/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | George Delaney | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/28g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/7g | 15/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 3/13g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Jake Wingfield | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Broadbent | FB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/16g | 0/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 37% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 3/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 48' 51' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (0·4·1·0·1·1·0·3·0·0) | 11/15g | 4/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.47 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.61 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/9g | 2/7g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.99 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $24.27 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 0/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 3/4g | 32% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1702 vs 1615), but the market favours St Helens (@1.38). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — St Helens 1615 · Hull KR 1702 · ELO difference: 87 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — St Helens predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)