St Helens
Hull KR
AI Win Probability
St Helens
56%
Hull KR
44%
AI Match Overview
St Helens hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hull KR are far from out of this at 44%. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but St Helens counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1702 vs 1615). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 3.6 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Helens to Win @1.38
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.4%
Line / Spread
St Helens +3.6 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
St Helens 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Helens | R1W R2W R3W older → newer | 37.6 |
Hull KR | R1W R2W R3W | 17.4 |
Avg Conceded
10.6
St Helens
9.4
Hull KR
Avg Margin
27.0
St Helens
8.0
Hull KR
Run Metres
1317
St Helens
1169
Hull KR
Clean Breaks
7.2
St Helens
4.6
Hull KR
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1702 vs 1615), but the market favours St Helens (@1.38).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
St Helens predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.6