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Super League | Round 4

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THE BREWDOG STADIUM • FRIDAY 7 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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STH

St Helens

1020
HKR

Hull KR

❌ Upset — model favoured St Helens at 56%

AI Win Probability

56%St HelensFavourite

St Helens

56%

Hull KR

44%

AI Match Overview

St Helens hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Hull KR are far from out of this at 44%. Hull KR are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate, but St Helens counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hull KR carry a 87-point ELO rating advantage (1702 vs 1615). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for St Helens. The margin model predicts St Helens by 3.6 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.38

Lost ✗

Edge

-16.4%

Line / Spread

St Helens +3.6 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
St Helens
R1W
R2W
R3W

older → newer

37.6
Hull KR
R1W
R2W
R3W
17.4

Avg Conceded

10.6

St Helens

9.4

Hull KR

Avg Margin

27.0

St Helens

8.0

Hull KR

Run Metres

1317

St Helens

1169

Hull KR

Clean Breaks

7.2

St Helens

4.6

Hull KR

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026STH 10 - 52 HKR
Oct 2025STH 12 - 20 HKR
Aug 2025STH 8 - 12 HKR
Jun 2025STH 4 - 34 HKR
Feb 2024STH 20 - 40 HKR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

ELO–Market Disagreement

Hull KR hold the ELO advantage (1702 vs 1615), but the market favours St Helens (@1.38).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

STH
1615Overall1702
HKR
ELO difference: -87 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

872Forwards898
Best: 1076HKR +26Best: 1201
1093Backs867
Best: 1259STH +226Best: 1028
788Halves823
Best: 788HKR +35Best: 823
1118Hooker1000
STH +118

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

STH
Stat
HKR
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
37.6pts
Avg Score
17.4pts
10.6pts
Avg Conceded
9.4pts
27.0pts
Avg Margin
8.0pts
1317.0m
Run Metres
1168.6m
7.2
Clean Breaks
4.6
260.2
Tackles
303.8
7.6
Errors
9.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

56%

St Helens predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +3.6

0/4 match predictions correct