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Super League | Round 4

alphr.com.au

MKM STADIUM • THURSDAY 6 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUL

Hull

2222
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 55%

AI Win Probability

55%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Hull

45%

Leigh Leopards

55%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Hull are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Leigh Leopards carry a 309-point ELO rating advantage (1643 vs 1335). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hull. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 3.9 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.62

Lost ✗

Edge

-7.0%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards -3.9 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull
R1W
R2L
R3W

older → newer

9.4
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2W
R3W
14.6

Avg Conceded

28.4

Hull

12.0

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

-19.0

Hull

2.6

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

887

Hull

991

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

1.2

Hull

3.4

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 3-2
May 2026HUL 6 - 42 LEI
Aug 2025HUL 18 - 12 LEI
May 2025HUL 26 - 12 LEI
Feb 2024HUL 4 - 54 LEI
Aug 2024HUL 12 - 42 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUL
1335Overall1643
LEI
ELO difference: -309 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

865Forwards876
Best: 1141LEI +10Best: 1227
914Backs949
Best: 1111LEI +35Best: 1180
859Halves1210
Best: 859LEI +351Best: 1210
992Hooker600
HUL +392

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUL
Stat
LEI
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
9.4pts
Avg Score
14.6pts
28.4pts
Avg Conceded
12.0pts
-19.0pts
Avg Margin
2.6pts
887.0m
Run Metres
990.8m
1.2
Clean Breaks
3.4
272.2
Tackles
267.4
7.0
Errors
7.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Leopards
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Leopards
7
H2H History6.0%
Leopards

Model Confidence

55%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: -3.9

1/1 match predictions correct