# Hull FC v Leigh Leopards — Super League Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull FC 22 – 22 Leigh Leopards

_Honours even between Hull FC and Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull FC 45% / Leigh Leopards 55% · MKM Stadium · Thu, 06 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull FC: Jed Cartwright (8' 1st), Harvey Barron (50' Tipped ⚡), Herman Ese'ese (59'), Lewis Martin (78') · Leigh Leopards: Tesi Niu (12' Tipped ⚡), Umyla Hanley (25' Tipped ⚡), David Armstrong (55' Tipped ⚡), David Armstrong (66' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 55% | Draw |
| Hull FC | 45% | Draw |

Model call: **Draw** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 0 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull FC vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Hull FC 22–22 Leigh Leopards in Super League Round 4 at MKM Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC and Leigh Leopards played out a 22–22 draw at MKM Stadium. Scores were 6–12 at half-time.

Jed Cartwright opened the scoring; Hull FC crossed through Jed Cartwright, Harvey Barron, Herman Ese'ese and Lewis Martin; Leigh Leopards scored through Tesi Niu, Umyla Hanley and David Armstrong (2).

**Model Report Card**

The match ended in a draw (22–22), a rare result the model's 55% forecast for Leigh Leopards didn't account for. The margin model was sharp, predicting Leigh Leopards by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 0 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 44, within 2 points. The model went 3/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 54.7% — result: PUSH
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — model probability 54.7% — result: PUSH
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — model probability 54.7% — result: PUSH
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 4 · Predicted total: 42

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Hull FC | 22 – 32 | Leigh Leopards | Leigh Leopards 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 42 – 6 | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards 78% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Hull FC | 18 – 12 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Leigh Leopards | 12 – 26 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 4 – 54 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull's best path is the middle: Super League's 8th-ranked middle attack (0.67 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 3rd there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Cust, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 4th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 1 | 0 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 147m/g | 105m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 7 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 477m/g | 573m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.7/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.6% | 86.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull FC | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 295m/g | 375m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 95.1% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%
**Who scores on Hull** — Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53% · Fullbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MKM Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 5/12g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/13g | 40% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 5% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jed Cartwright | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/44g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Knight | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Will Hutchinson | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/34g | 4% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Armstrong | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.61 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $21.60 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' 66' |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.98 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.01 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.36 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 5 | Bailey Hodgson | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/4g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.77 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.16 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Jack Hughes | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Andrew Badrock | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.56 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.23 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.03 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)