Catalans Dragons
Leeds Rhinos
AI Win Probability
Catalans Dragons
43%
Leeds Rhinos
57%
AI Match Overview
Leeds Rhinos hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Catalans Dragons are far from out of this at 43%. Catalans Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Venue Advantage, but Leeds Rhinos counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Leeds Rhinos carry a 134-point ELO rating advantage (1533 vs 1398). The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 1.3 points with a combined total of 36.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leeds Rhinos to Win @2.28
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.6%
Line / Spread
Leeds Rhinos -1.3 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leeds Rhinos 1-12 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Catalans Dragons | R1L R2L R3L older → newer | 11.6 |
Leeds Rhinos | R1L R2W R3W | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
17.6
Catalans Dragons
21.6
Leeds Rhinos
Avg Margin
-6.0
Catalans Dragons
-2.0
Leeds Rhinos
Run Metres
797
Catalans Dragons
1042
Leeds Rhinos
Clean Breaks
3.0
Catalans Dragons
3.0
Leeds Rhinos
ELO–Market Disagreement
Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1533 vs 1398), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.78).
The model sides with ELO, Leeds Rhinos predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 36 · Line: -1.3