# Catalans Dragons v Leeds Rhinos — Super League Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Catalans Dragons 11 – 0 Leeds Rhinos

_Catalans Dragons scorch Leeds Rhinos._

Half time: 1 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Catalans Dragons 43% / Leeds Rhinos 57% · Stade Gilbert Brutus · Sat, 08 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Catalans Dragons: Reimis Smith (42' 1st Tipped 🎯), Reimis Smith (71' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Leeds Rhinos: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 57% | Lost |
| Catalans Dragons | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 11 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Catalans Dragons vs Leeds Rhinos Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Catalans Dragons 11–0 Leeds Rhinos in Super League Round 4 at Stade Gilbert Brutus. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leeds Rhinos did more with the ball than the scoreboard suggests, and that's precisely the sort of night that ends up 11-0 against you. They gave up the ball only nine times to Catalans Dragons' ten, and they out-busted the home side in the tackle, 24 to 21. On paper, that's the tidier team. On the field, it counted for nothing.

The problem was territory and precision at the end of it. Leeds ran for 751 metres to Catalans Dragons' 798, close enough in the ledger, but they couldn't turn any of it into a line break, finishing with none to Catalans Dragons' two. All that go-forward and not one crack in the defence to show for it. Add five penalties conceded to Catalans Dragons' three, and Leeds were handing over field position they couldn't afford to hand over.

Catalans Dragons won it late and won it through one man. Reimis Smith opened the scoring in the 42nd minute, Arthur Mourgue's conversion made it 7-0 a minute later, and Smith crossed again in the 71st to make it 11-0. Two tries, same man, and a scoreline that sat at 1-0 at half-time before the home side found something extra that Leeds simply didn't have an answer for.

That 1-0 half-time score tells its own story. For long stretches this was tight, low-scoring rugby league, and it took until the second half for either side to really assert themselves. The positional ratings back up how Catalans Dragons eventually got there: stronger in the forwards, 960 to 931, and well clear in the halves and at hooker, 1000 to 807 and 1000 to 783 respectively. Leeds held a clear edge in the backs, 1216 to 985, but a strong backline is only as good as the ball it gets, and Leeds' forwards and spine didn't give it enough.

Form lines going in had Leeds looking the sharper outfit, averaging 19.6 points and 1042.2 running metres a game to Catalans Dragons' 11.6 and 796.8. Leeds had also won their last two coming in, LLLWW across their last five, while Catalans Dragons had dropped three straight, WWLLL.

**Key Match Stats**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| **798** | Run metres | 751 |
| **2** | Line breaks | 0 |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **24** |
| **5** | Offloads | 4 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 1/2 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 5 |
| 10 | Errors | 9 |
| 1 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Catalans Dragons defied the model's 57% prediction for Leeds Rhinos, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 11 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 36. Catalans Dragons led 1–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 11. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (29/100) — penalties Catalans Dragons 3 · Leeds Rhinos 5.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 1 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Leeds Rhinos are the call at 57%, but Catalans Dragons stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 134 ELO points clear, 1533 to 1398.

On paper Catalans Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. The model still sides with Leeds Rhinos, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 36. Lean Leeds Rhinos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Catalans Dragons | Stat | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.6pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -6.0pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 796.8m | Run Metres | 1042.2m |
| 3.0 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 196.8 | Tackles | 293.8 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Catalans Dragons | R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 11.6 |
| Leeds Rhinos | R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Catalans Dragons | 6 – 28 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 67% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | Leeds Rhinos | 46 – 4 | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos 84% ✓ |
| 2025 | R26 | Leeds Rhinos | 8 – 16 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Leeds Rhinos | 18 – 6 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R11 | Catalans Dragons | 26 – 0 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the middle: Super League's 10th-ranked middle attack (0.67 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Costa, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 12th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Handley, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 1.33/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 8th) | 1.67/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 5th |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 54m/g | 100m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.7/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 95.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.7/g |
| Run Metres | 518m/g | 488m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 18/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 86.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Catalans Dragons | Leeds Rhinos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 2 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 331m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 96.6% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.04) +25% · Centres 0.39/g (lg 0.35) +11%
**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.09) +11% · Centres 0.34/g (lg 0.35) -3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Stade Gilbert Brutus. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 4/10g | 16/45g | 30% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 2/5g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.51 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.84 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/3g | 2/10g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.04 AI 25% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $31.67 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reimis Smith | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 42' 71' |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Theo Fages | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Pangai Junior | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/42g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Tariq Sims | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/13g | 2/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Chris Satae | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 0/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Romain Navarrete | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Connor | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/18g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 3 in 3g | 5/8g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.34 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.64 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 9/14g | 0/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.53 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ethan Clark-Wood | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Matt Frawley | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Brodie Croft | HB | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.73 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Keenan Palasia | PR | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.55 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 11 | Morgan Gannon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | James Bentley | LK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Sinfield | INT | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.58 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Cooper Jenkins | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Leeds Rhinos hold the ELO advantage (1533 vs 1398), but the market favours Catalans Dragons (@1.78). The model sides with ELO, Leeds Rhinos predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Catalans Dragons 1398 · Leeds Rhinos 1533 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Catalans Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)