Castleford Tigers
Salford Red Devils
AI Win Probability
Castleford Tigers
48%
Salford Red Devils
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Salford Red Devils a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Salford Red Devils carry a 66-point ELO rating advantage (1382 vs 1316). The margin model predicts Salford Red Devils by 1.0 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Salford Red Devils to Win @2.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.8%
Line / Spread
Salford Red Devils -1 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Salford Red Devils Draw @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L R3L older → newer | 12.4 |
Salford Red Devils | R1L R2L R3L | 2.4 |
Avg Conceded
35.4
Castleford Tigers
46.8
Salford Red Devils
Avg Margin
-23.0
Castleford Tigers
-44.4
Salford Red Devils
Run Metres
591
Castleford Tigers
389
Salford Red Devils
Clean Breaks
1.6
Castleford Tigers
1.4
Salford Red Devils
ELO–Market Disagreement
Salford Red Devils hold the ELO advantage (1382 vs 1316), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.59).
The model sides with ELO, Salford Red Devils predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.0