# Castleford Tigers v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 4 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Castleford Tigers 22 – 14 Salford Red Devils

_Castleford Tigers hunt down Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Castleford Tigers 48% / Salford Red Devils 52% · The Jungle · Fri, 07 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Castleford Tigers: Liam Horne (20' 1st), Muizz Mustapha (43'), Judah Rimbu (75') · Salford Red Devils: Ryan Brierley (35' Tipped ⚡), Kallum Watkins (52' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Salford Red Devils | 52% | Lost |
| Castleford Tigers | 48% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Castleford Tigers vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 4 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Castleford Tigers 22–14 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 4 at The Jungle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Salford Red Devils did plenty right at The Jungle and still walked away with nothing. They were the tidier side with the ball, just 7 errors to Castleford's 9, and they out-busted the home side on tackles, 33 to 27. On paper that's a side playing with some control. It wasn't enough.

The problem was what happened when Salford actually had the ball in space, or rather, didn't. One line break all night, against five for Castleford. All that ball security and all those tackle busts amounted to territory without teeth. Salford could chip away but couldn't break through, and against a Castleford side building through its backs that gap mattered.

The penalty count didn't help either. Seven penalties conceded to Castleford's two is a lot of easy metres and easy shots handed over, and Tex Hoy made them pay, landing a penalty goal in the 48th and another in the 79th to bookend the second-half surge.

It was locked at 6-6 at the break, Liam Horne's try and Tex Hoy's conversion answered by Ryan Brierley and Marc Sneyd. Fair enough, an even contest through forty. Then Castleford turned it on. Muizz Mustapha crossed in the 43rd, Hoy converted, and the penalty goal five minutes later made it 14-6. Salford clawed back through Kallum Watkins and a Sneyd penalty to level it at 14-14 by the 72nd minute, which says something for their nerve. But Judah Rimbu's try in the 75th, converted by Hoy, was the one that mattered, and Hoy's late penalty goal put the gloss on it at 22-14.

Salford's form coming in read LLLLL, same as Castleford's, but the underlying numbers told a rougher story: an average of just 2.4 points scored across their last five against 46.8 conceded. Their forward pack and backline ratings, 853 and 734, sat below Castleford's 917 and 941, and it showed in the arm-wrestle for metres, 937 to 967, close enough on the surface but Castleford turned theirs into points far more often. Salford's one clear edge, a hooker rating of 1000 against Castleford's 700, never translated into the try count it might have suggested.

Castleford Tigers get the 22-14 win, their points coming from Horne, Mustapha and Rimbu, with Hoy perfect off the tee and adding two penalty goals for good measure. It's the kind of result that won't show up as a form reversal, both sides still carry five straight losses into the ledger, but it's a result nonetheless.

Alphr's model had this one going the other way, tipping Salford by a single point off ratings of 1382 to 1316. The predicted margin was close enough in shape, just pointing the wrong direction: an 8-point Castleford win instead of a narrow Salford one. File it under the 2 from 15 the model's had on this match. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **967** | Run metres | 937 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 27 | Tackle busts | **33** |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 1 |
| 0/0 | Goals | 3/4 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Castleford Tigers defied the model's 52% prediction for Salford Red Devils, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.0 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (46/100) — penalties Castleford Tigers 2 · Salford Red Devils 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Salford Red Devils to win — model probability 51.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Salford Red Devils — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Salford Red Devils 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Salford Red Devils by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Castleford Tigers and Salford Red Devils. The model can't split them, landing on Salford Red Devils at 52%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Salford Red Devils sit 66 ELO points clear, 1382 to 1316.

On paper Castleford Tigers shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Salford Red Devils, which says ELO Difference and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Salford Red Devils by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Castleford Tigers | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 2.4pts |
| 35.4pts | Avg Conceded | 46.8pts |
| -23.0pts | Avg Margin | -44.4pts |
| 591.4m | Run Metres | 389.2m |
| 1.6 | Clean Breaks | 1.4 |
| 160.0 | Tackles | 190.8 |
| 5.2 | Errors | 5.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers | R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 12.4 |
| Salford Red Devils | R27 L · L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 2.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Salford Red Devils lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2025 | R11 | Castleford Tigers | 48 – 16 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 24 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R19 | Salford Red Devils | 30 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |
| 2024 | R2 | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 22 | Castleford Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 12th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Cini, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the right edge: Super League's 8th-ranked right edge attack (0.33 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 11th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Watkins, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 5th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 3.33/g (def 12th (weak)) |
| Right | 0/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 11th (weak)) | 0.33/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 0 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 55m/g | 51m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 1.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.7% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 0 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 439m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 91.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Castleford Tigers | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 6th |
| Defence rank | 10th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 179m/g | 78m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.04) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.28/g (lg 0.17) +65% · 2nd Rows 0.34/g (lg 0.23) +48%
**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.04) +200% · Fullbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.17) +88% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.11) +64%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Jungle. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.36 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.71 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josh Simm | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.63 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.62 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Cini | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.36 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.71 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/11g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.98 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Tex Hoy | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Daniel Okoro | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Cain Robb | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | George Griffin | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | George Lawler | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | George Hill | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Horne | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 7% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 15 | Judah Rimbu | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 75' |
| 16 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 43' |
| 17 | Sylvester Namo | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.15 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| 2 | Chris Hankinson | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 3 | Nene Macdonald | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Esan Marsters | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Marc Sneyd | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Chris Atkin | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Justin Sangare | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Kai Morgan | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Tiaki Chan | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 5/20g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.12 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $25.17 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 13 | Matty Foster | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chris Hill | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Harvey Wilson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Bullock | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Shane Wright | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Salford Red Devils hold the ELO advantage (1382 vs 1316), but the market favours Castleford Tigers (@1.59). The model sides with ELO, Salford Red Devils predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Castleford Tigers 1316 · Salford Red Devils 1382 · ELO difference: 66 in favour of Salford Red Devils

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Salford Red Devils |

**Model Confidence: 52%** — Salford Red Devils predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)