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Super League | Grand Final

alphr.com.au

HKR
Hull KR
VS
WIG
Wigan Warriors
OLD TRAFFORD • SATURDAY 11 OCT, 11:00 AM AEDT

Win Probability

Full Time
24
6

Scoring Breakdown

KRWarriors
4Tries1
4/5Goals1/2
3Penalties Conceded2
8Errors12
0Sin Bins1
3Line Breaks1
28Tackle Busts42
6Offloads5
1151Metres868

Ref Watch

by Alphr
AI Insight
✅Clean Game

Warriors had penalties evenly distributed (3-2). Clean officiating with no material impact on the result.

PENS3 – 2
ERR8 – 12

AI Game Review

Hull KR defied the model's 59% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 18 points. Hull KR led 10–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay
Beta
80', Hull KR Full-time 24–6 · swing +25% KR
HUL24
99%80'1%
6WIG
HT100%50%0%0'20'40'60'80'
← Wigan Warriors momentumMomentum +28Hull KR momentum →
Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

59%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Hull KR

41%

Wigan Warriors

59%

✨

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Hull KR are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Wigan Warriors carry a 72-point ELO rating advantage (1801 vs 1729). Recent form favours Wigan Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Hull KR. The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 1.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.67

Lost ✗

Edge

-1.3%

✗

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors -1.7 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R24W
R25W
R26L
R27W
R29W

older → newer

18.0
Wigan Warriors
R24W
R25W
R26W
R27W
R29W
32.0

Avg Conceded

14.4

Hull KR

5.2

Wigan Warriors

Avg Margin

3.6

Hull KR

26.8

Wigan Warriors

Run Metres

1145

Hull KR

1248

Wigan Warriors

Clean Breaks

4.6

Hull KR

5.2

Wigan Warriors

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
May 2026HKR 62 - 4 WIG
Aug 2025HKR 10 - 6 WIG
Apr 2025HKR 12 - 28 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 2 - 9 WIG
Feb 2024HKR 26 - 10 WIG
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1729Overall1801
WIG
ELO difference: -72 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

799Forwards925
Best: 949WIG +127Best: 1345
999Backs867
Best: 1250HKR +131Best: 1001
1107Halves953
Best: 1107HKR +155Best: 953
1000Hooker600
HKR +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
WIG
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
18.0pts
Avg Score
32.0pts
14.4pts
Avg Conceded
5.2pts
3.6pts
Avg Margin
26.8pts
1145.2m
Run Metres
1248.4m
4.6
Clean Breaks
5.2
294.0
Tackles
294.4
9.2
Errors
8.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Warriors
5
Halves Control9.0%
KR
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

59%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -1.7

0/4 match predictions correct