# Hull KR v Wigan Warriors — Super League Grand Final 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 24 – 6 Wigan Warriors

_Hull KR outfox Wigan Warriors._

Half time: 10 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 41% / Wigan Warriors 59% · Old Trafford · Sat, 11 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (19' 1st), Joe Burgess (26' Tipped ⚡), Jez Litten (59'), Joe Burgess (77' Tipped ⚡) · Wigan Warriors: Harry Smith (48')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 59% | Lost |
| Hull KR | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.7 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Wigan Warriors Prediction & Tips | Super League Grand Final 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Hull KR 24–6 Wigan Warriors in Super League Grand Final at Old Trafford. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors arrived at Old Trafford unbeaten in five, averaging 32 points a game and leaking just 5.2 in defence. Nothing about that form travelled to Manchester. They finished with 6 points and a scoreline that will sting more than most given how good that recent run had looked.

It wasn't a lack of go-forward that undid them. Wigan actually won the tackle bust count 42 to 28, and their forward pack carried a higher rating coming in, 925 to Hull KR's 799. On paper they were meant to make the hard yards. They didn't make them count. Hull KR ran for 1,151 metres to Wigan's 868 and turned that platform into three line breaks against Wigan's one. Busting tackles without turning it into field position or quick play-the-balls is just noise on the stat sheet.

The number that explains more of what happened is errors. Wigan coughed the ball up 12 times to Hull KR's 8. That's the difference between a team playing off a stable platform and one constantly resetting under its own mistakes. Discipline wasn't the problem, Wigan actually conceded fewer penalties, 2 to Hull KR's 3. It was simply handling the ball when it mattered.

Mikey Lewis opened the scoring in the 19th minute, and Arthur Mourgue's conversion made it 6-0 a minute later. Joe Burgess crossed in the 26th to push it to 10-0, and that's roughly where the half-time score sat: Hull KR 10, Wigan 2, after Adam Keighran's penalty goal in the 39th minute.

Wigan had a real sniff early in the second half. Harry Smith scored in the 48th minute to make it 10-6, and for a few minutes the gap looked gettable. That's as close as it got. Hull KR's spine, rated well clear of Wigan's coming in, halves 1107 to 953 and hooker 1000 to 600, started to show. Rhyse Martin slotted a penalty goal in the 53rd minute to make it 12-6, then Jez Litten scored in the 59th and Martin's conversion made it 18-6. Burgess added his second in the 77th minute, Martin converted again, and it finished 24-6.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **1,151** | Run metres | 868 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 28 | Tackle busts | **42** |
| **6** | Offloads | 5 |
| **8** | Errors | 12 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4/5 | Goals | 1/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 8 | Errors | 12 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Hull KR defied the model's 59% prediction for Wigan Warriors, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 18 points. Hull KR led 10–2 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 1/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (16/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · Wigan Warriors 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 58.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 59%, but Hull KR stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 72 ELO points clear, 1801 to 1729. Form leans Wigan Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Hull KR.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 1.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 5.2pts |
| 3.6pts | Avg Margin | 26.8pts |
| 1145.2m | Run Metres | 1248.4m |
| 4.6 | Clean Breaks | 5.2 |
| 294.0 | Tackles | 294.4 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · SF W | 18.0 |
| Wigan Warriors | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · SF W | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Wigan Warriors | 46 – 0 | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors 66% ✓ |
| 2026 | R12 | Hull KR | 62 – 4 | Wigan Warriors | Hull KR 68% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Wigan Warriors | 6 – 10 | Hull KR | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | Hull KR | 12 – 28 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Wigan Warriors | 9 – 2 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.71 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 19 tries in that channel this season.
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the right edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.18 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.61 conceded/game). Key man: Eckersley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.86/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.46/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 6th) |
| Middle | 2.07/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.68/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.61/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.43/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 7 | 28 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 139m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 81 · 30 | 87 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 613m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Wigan Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 15 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 287m/g | 350m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.8% |

**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Locks 0.03/g (lg 0.04) -25% · Props 0.09/g (lg 0.13) -31%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.25) -4% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Wingers 0.74/g (lg 0.9) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Old Trafford. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 10 in 26g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 17 in 26g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 9 in 13g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.17 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 19 in 20g | 12/10g (1·0·0·2·4·3·0·0·1·1) | 3/10g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.67 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.03 AI 27% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' 77' |
| 6 | Tyrone May | 5/8 | 6 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mikey Lewis | HB | 20 in 25g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 8 in 27g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 15 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 5 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/1g | 26% | — | — |

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 24 in 26g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0) | 8/11g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.36 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.84 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 9/9g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.49 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.73 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 7 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.54 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 15 in 27g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/13g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.97 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 15 in 26g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·3·1·2·0·0) | 20/16g | 1/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.88 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 14 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·2) | 5/10g | 1/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.91 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.66 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 28g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/21g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 28g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 7 in 27g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 27g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1729 · Wigan Warriors 1801 · ELO difference: 72 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull KR |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)