# Wigan Warriors v Warrington Wolves — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 48 – 24 Warrington Wolves

_Wigan Warriors conquer Warrington Wolves._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 69% / Warrington Wolves 31% · Allegiant Stadium · Sat, 01 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Tyler Dupree (16' 1st), Abbas Miski (22' Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (27' Tipped ⚡), Harry Smith (36'), Jai Field (44' Tipped ⚡), Jake Wardle (50'), Luke Thompson (53'), Liam Marshall (76' Tipped ⚡) · Warrington Wolves: Arron Lindop (64' Tipped ⚡), James Harrison (67'), Matthew Dufty (75'), Matty Ashton (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 69% | Won |
| Warrington Wolves | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.3 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Warrington Wolves Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Wigan Warriors 48–24 Warrington Wolves in Super League Round 3 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Wigan Warriors winning by 11.3 and the two sides combining for 40 points. The final tally: a 24-point margin and 72 points on the board. Right winner, wrong picture entirely.

The 69% probability on Wigan was fair value and it held up. What the model didn't see coming was just how one-sided the first half would be, and then how loose the second half would get once the contest was already dead.

Wigan led 24-0 at the break, and it wasn't close to competitive. Tyler Dupree opened it up in the 16th minute, and from there it was Abbas Miski, Bevan French and Harry Smith piling on before half-time, Adam Keighran slotting every conversion along the way. That's the sort of scoreline you get when the ratings gap is as wide as it was here: Wigan held clear edges in forwards (973 to 856), backs (1037 to 793) and halves (1009 to 944). Warrington's one edge, at hooker (911 to 790), didn't get a look in while Wigan were running riot.

The tries kept coming after the break too. Jai Field, Jake Wardle and Luke Thompson all crossed inside a 10-minute stretch either side of the hour mark, and by the 54th minute it was 42-0. At that point the model's total of 40 for the whole match had already been blown past with a quarter of the game still to play.

Then Warrington finally turned up. Arron Lindop, James Harrison, Matthew Dufty and Matty Ashton all scored between the 64th and 79th minutes, with Josh Thewlis converting the lot, and suddenly Warrington had 24 points of their own on the board. Wigan answered with a late Liam Marshall try to push it out to 48-24, but the shape of that finish, four tries conceded in 15 minutes, is exactly why the margin model missed so badly. It wasn't built for a game that went from a shutout to a track meet.

The stat sheet backs up why Wigan were never seriously threatened despite the late scare. They ran for 1,550 metres to Warrington's 1,057, broke the line eight times to one, and racked up 48 tackle busts to 27. That's a forward pack and backline doing exactly what their ratings suggested they would. Warrington were actually tidier with the ball early, in truth throughout, conceding just 8 errors to Wigan's 13, and they edged the offload count 14 to 13. None of it mattered while they were being run off their feet in defence.

Both sides came in on decent recent form, four wins from five apiece, but the gap in the supporting numbers told the real story: Wigan averaging 31.4 points scored and conceding just 1.4, against Warrington's 24.6 scored and 11.2 conceded. Big-margin footy from Wigan, occasional soft patches from Warrington. Both traits showed up here in full.

Alphr's model went 7 from 15 on the round. It called the winner. It had no answer for a scoreline that doubled its margin and ran 32 points past its total. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| **1,550** | Run metres | 1,057 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **48** | Tackle busts | 27 |
| 13 | Offloads | **14** |
| 13 | Errors | **8** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 3 |
| 8/8 | Goals | 4/4 |
| 4 | Penalties Conceded | 4 |
| 13 | Errors | 8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.3 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 72 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 40. The model went 7/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (3/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 4 · Warrington Wolves 4.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 69.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Wigan Warriors here: 69% to see off Warrington Wolves. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 39 ELO points clear, 1691 to 1652.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 11.3, with the two sides combining for about 40. Wigan Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.4pts | Avg Score | 24.6pts |
| 1.4pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| 30.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.4pts |
| 1426.6m | Run Metres | 887.6m |
| 6.6 | Clean Breaks | 4.2 |
| 309.6 | Tackles | 250.2 |
| 8.2 | Errors | 6.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R27 W · W · W · R1 L · R2 W | 31.4 |
| Warrington Wolves | R27 W · W · L · R1 W · R2 W | 24.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Wigan Warriors | 30 – 18 | Warrington Wolves | Wigan Warriors 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | Warrington Wolves | 23 – 6 | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves 66% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 24 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Wigan Warriors | 22 – 20 | Warrington Wolves | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Warrington Wolves | 18 – 19 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Warrington Wolves defence ranked 5th there (0.59 conceded/game). Key man: Marshall, 29 tries in that channel this season.
- Warrington Wolves' best path is the left edge: Super League's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.03 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.38 conceded/game). Key man: Ashton, 25 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.55/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.03/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 5th) |
| Middle | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.66/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.9/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.9/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.45/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 3 | 12 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 130m/g | 135m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 92.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 20 | 51 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 539m/g | 313m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.3/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 88.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Warrington Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 7 | 12 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 240m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 93.9% |

**Who scores on Warrington Wolves** — Props 0.17/g (lg 0.13) +31% · Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · 2nd Rows 0.26/g (lg 0.28) -7%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.28) -11% · Halfbacks 0.13/g (lg 0.17) -24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 3 in 2g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·3) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.52 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $27.98 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.55 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 38% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 0 in 2g | 8/10g (1·0·0·2·1·2·2·0·0·0) | 18/13g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.33 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.68 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 1 in 2g | 10/10g (0·2·0·1·2·2·1·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.28 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.33 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Kruise Leeming | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 11 | Junior Nsemba | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyler Dupree | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 16 | Sam Walters | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.38 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Tom Forber | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |

**Warrington Wolves** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Dufty | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 75' |
| 2 | Josh Thewlis | WG | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Toby King | CE | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.21 AI 28% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Arron Lindop | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.56 AI 21% ✓ Scored | 🏉 64' |
| 5 | Matty Ashton | WG | 1 in 2g | 14/10g (0·1·1·1·3·3·2·2·1·0) | 4/5g | 0/0g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.68 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $22.05 AI 29% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 6 | Oli Leyland | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | George Williams | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Luke Yates | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Danny Walker | HK | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Paul Vaughan | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Dan Russell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Lachlan Fitzgibbon | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Ben Currie | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Powell | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Philbin | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | James Harrison | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 17 | Jordy Crowther | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1691 · Warrington Wolves 1652 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)