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Super League | Round 3

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ALLEGIANT STADIUM • SATURDAY 1 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

4824
WAR

Warrington Wolves

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 69%

AI Win Probability

69%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

69%

Warrington Wolves

31%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warrington Wolves. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wigan Warriors carry a 39-point ELO rating advantage (1691 vs 1652). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 11.3 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.38

Winner ✓

Edge

-3.0%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +11.3 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R1L
R2W

older → newer

31.4
Warrington Wolves
R1W
R2W
24.6

Avg Conceded

1.4

Wigan Warriors

11.2

Warrington Wolves

Avg Margin

30.0

Wigan Warriors

13.4

Warrington Wolves

Run Metres

1427

Wigan Warriors

888

Warrington Wolves

Clean Breaks

6.6

Wigan Warriors

4.2

Warrington Wolves

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
May 2026WIG 6 - 23 WAR
Aug 2025WIG 24 - 18 WAR
May 2025WIG 22 - 20 WAR
Feb 2024WIG 19 - 18 WAR
Jul 2024WIG 4 - 40 WAR
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1691Overall1652
WAR
ELO difference: +39 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

973Forwards856
Best: 1186WIG +117Best: 1093
1037Backs793
Best: 1207WIG +244Best: 917
1009Halves944
Best: 1009WIG +65Best: 944
790Hooker911
WAR +121

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
WAR
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
31.4pts
Avg Score
24.6pts
1.4pts
Avg Conceded
11.2pts
30.0pts
Avg Margin
13.4pts
1426.6m
Run Metres
887.6m
6.6
Clean Breaks
4.2
309.6
Tackles
250.2
8.2
Errors
6.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

69%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +11.3

2/4 match predictions correct