# Wakefield Trinity v St Helens — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wakefield Trinity 6 – 26 St Helens

_St Helens march past Wakefield Trinity._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wakefield Trinity 25% / St Helens 75% · The Diy Kitchens Stadium · Sat, 01 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wakefield Trinity: Isaiah Vagana (26') · St Helens: Jack Welsby (19' 1st Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (29' Tipped ⚡), Daryl Clark (57'), Kyle Feldt (66' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| St Helens | 75% | Won |
| Wakefield Trinity | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wakefield Trinity vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Wakefield Trinity 6–26 St Helens in Super League Round 3 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

St Helens beat Wakefield Trinity 26-6 at The Diy Kitchens Stadium, and even that scoreline undersells it. Wakefield managed 2 offloads all night. St Helens managed 16. That's not a margin, that's a different sport.

Wakefield actually had a look at this one early. Mark Percival slotted a penalty inside four minutes for St Helens, but Isaiah Vagana crossed in the 26th to drag it to 6-8, and for a moment it was a contest. Jack Welsby had already opened the scoring for St Helens in the 19th, and Harry Robertson added another in the 29th before Percival's second penalty made it 6-14 at the break. Wakefield never scored again.

The third quarter is where it turned from a game into a lesson. Daryl Clark went over in the 57th, Kyle Feldt in the 66th, Percival kicking both conversions, and St Helens closed it out 26-6 without Wakefield laying a hand on the scoreboard for the last hour of football.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. St Helens ran for 1,390 metres to Wakefield's 947, broke the line four times to one, and busted 32 tackles to Wakefield's 21. Errors were the one column Wakefield could point to with any pride, 12 to St Helens' 10, which in a losing performance like this counts as a moral victory of sorts.

None of it should have surprised anyone who looked at the positional numbers going in. St Helens' backs were rated 1236 to Wakefield's 776, the halves 920 to 691, the hooker spot 893 to 610. Those aren't close contests on paper, and they weren't close contests on the field either. Wakefield's forward pack actually rated higher, 1068 to 937, but a stronger engine room counts for less when the outside backs can't get their hands on quick ball, and Wakefield's 2 offloads compared to St Helens' 16 tells you exactly where that advantage went to die.

Form lines told the same story before a ball was kicked. St Helens arrived averaging 40.4 points a game across their last five with an average margin of plus-30.2. Wakefield were averaging 13 points scored, 13 conceded, dead level. St Helens won three of five, Wakefield one. This result sits comfortably inside both patterns.

Alphr's model had St Helens at 75% to win with a predicted margin of 9.4 and a combined total of 48. The lopsided part of that read landed well short, the final margin blew out to 20, but the total came in at 32, sixteen points under expectations. St Helens were more dominant than forecast and the game was tighter on the scoreboard for longer than the raw gap between the sides suggested it should be. Wakefield's first-half resistance bought them respectability. It didn't buy them anything else.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 947 | Run metres | **1,390** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **4** |
| 21 | Tackle busts | **32** |
| 2 | Offloads | **16** |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1/1 | Goals | 5/6 |
| 8 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 12 | Errors | 10 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted St Helens to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.4 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The game's 32 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 48. St Helens led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Wakefield Trinity 8 · St Helens 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** St Helens to win — model probability 74.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Helens — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** St Helens 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: St Helens by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on St Helens here: 75% to see off Wakefield Trinity. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: St Helens sit 172 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1423. Form leans St Helens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Wakefield Trinity.

St Helens own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has St Helens by 9.4, with the two sides combining for about 48. St Helens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wakefield Trinity | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.0pts | Avg Score | 40.4pts |
| 13.0pts | Avg Conceded | 10.2pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 30.2pts |
| 991.5m | Run Metres | 1281.8m |
| 2.0 | Clean Breaks | 8.4 |
| 319.5 | Tackles | 247.6 |
| 8.5 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wakefield Trinity | R1 W · R2 L | 13.0 |
| St Helens | R26 W · R27 L · L · R1 W · R2 W | 40.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — St Helens lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 46 | St Helens | St Helens 52% ✓ |
| 2026 | R9 | St Helens | 18 – 12 | Wakefield Trinity | Wakefield Trinity 50% ✗ |
| 2025 | R21 | Wakefield Trinity | 4 – 34 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R7 | St Helens | 26 – 14 | Wakefield Trinity | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Wakefield Trinity | 16 – 32 | St Helens | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Diy Kitchens Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wakefield Trinity** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Jowitt | FB | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.79 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.88 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Lachlan Walmsley | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Oliver Pratt | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 4 | Corey Hall | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Tom Johnstone | WG | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 9/14g | 1/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.62 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.67 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jake Trueman | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.61 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.59 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Mason Lino | HB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Mike McMeeken | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/21g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Hood | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Caleb Hamiln-Uele | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Matty Storton | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Isaiah Vagana | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 13 | Jay Pitts | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Doyle | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Olly Russell | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Renouf Atoni | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Croft | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Welsby | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.65 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 19' |
| 2 | Kyle Feldt | WG | 2 in 2g | 2/2g (1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.07 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 4 in 2g | 4/2g (2·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.26 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.08 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 4 | Mark Percival | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 9/13g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 6 | Tristan Sailor | 5/8 | 4 in 2g | 4/2g (4·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $16.35 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.41 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Batchelor | 2R | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Wingfield | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | James Bell | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Matt Whitley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Agnatius Paasi | INT | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wakefield Trinity 1423 · St Helens 1595 · ELO difference: 172 in favour of St Helens

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wakefield Trinity | St Helens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1068 (best 1305) | 937 (best 1301) | Wakefield Trinity +130 |
| Backs | 776 (best 894) | 1236 (best 1400) | St Helens +460 |
| Halves | 691 (best 691) | 920 (best 920) | St Helens +228 |
| Hooker | 610 | 893 | St Helens +283 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | St Helens |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wakefield Trinity |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | St Helens |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | St Helens |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | St Helens |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | St Helens |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — St Helens predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)