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Super League | Round 3

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THE DIY KITCHENS STADIUM • SATURDAY 1 MAR, 11:00 AM AEDT
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WAK

Wakefield Trinity

626
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed St Helens at 75%

AI Win Probability

75%St HelensFavourite

Wakefield Trinity

25%

St Helens

75%

AI Match Overview

St Helens are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wakefield Trinity. The model sees St Helens ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. St Helens carry a 172-point ELO rating advantage (1595 vs 1423). Recent form favours St Helens with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Wakefield Trinity. The margin model predicts St Helens by 9.4 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

St Helens to Win @1.25

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.3%

Line / Spread

St Helens -9.4 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

St Helens 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wakefield Trinity
R1W
R2L

older → newer

13.4
St Helens
R1W
R2W
40.4

Avg Conceded

24.0

Wakefield Trinity

10.2

St Helens

Avg Margin

-10.6

Wakefield Trinity

30.2

St Helens

Run Metres

764

Wakefield Trinity

1282

St Helens

Clean Breaks

1.8

Wakefield Trinity

8.4

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)St Helens lead 5-0
May 2026WAK 12 - 18 STH
Aug 2025WAK 4 - 34 STH
Apr 2025WAK 14 - 26 STH
Aug 2023WAK 16 - 32 STH
Apr 2023WAK 0 - 38 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WAK
1423Overall1595
STH
ELO difference: -172 in favour of St Helens

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1068Forwards937
Best: 1305WAK +130Best: 1301
776Backs1236
Best: 894STH +460Best: 1400
691Halves920
Best: 691STH +228Best: 920
610Hooker893
STH +283

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WAK
Stat
STH
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
13.4pts
Avg Score
40.4pts
24.0pts
Avg Conceded
10.2pts
-10.6pts
Avg Margin
30.2pts
764.4m
Run Metres
1281.8m
1.8
Clean Breaks
8.4
242.4
Tackles
247.6
7.2
Errors
8.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Helens
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Trinity
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Helens
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Helens
5
Halves Control9.0%
Helens
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Helens
7
H2H History6.0%
Helens

Model Confidence

75%

St Helens predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: -9.4

2/4 match predictions correct