# Leigh Leopards v Catalans Dragons — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leigh Leopards 34 – 6 Catalans Dragons

_Leigh Leopards pounce on Catalans Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leigh Leopards 81% / Catalans Dragons 19% · Progress with Unity Stadium · Fri, 28 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leigh Leopards: Umyla Hanley (12' 1st), Keanan Brand (24' Tipped ⚡), Jack Hughes (28'), Umyla Hanley (44' 1st), Ethan O'Neill (58'), Umyla Hanley (70' 1st) · Catalans Dragons: Alrix Da Costa (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | 81% | Won |
| Catalans Dragons | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.7 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leigh Leopards vs Catalans Dragons Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Leigh Leopards 34–6 Catalans Dragons in Super League Round 3 at Progress with Unity Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Leigh Leopards beat Catalans Dragons 34-6 at Progress with Unity Stadium, and on paper that looks like the away side at least turned up. It didn't. Catalans led one statistical column all day, the error count, giving it up 7 times to Leigh's 9. Everything else says this was a hiding.

Umyla Hanley opened the scoring in the 12th minute and finished with a hat-trick, the last of his three arriving in the 70th to put the gloss on it. In between, Keanan Brand, Jack Hughes and Ethan O'Neill all crossed, and by half-time it was already 16-0. Catalans didn't get on the board until Alrix Da Costa scored in the 65th minute, by which point Leigh were already up 28-0. A converted try either side of that is about the only thing keeping this from looking like a shutout.

The line break count tells the real story: Leigh Leopards 7, Catalans Dragons 2. Add in 25 tackle busts to 20 and 1,198 running metres to 765, and you've got a side that had the ball doing what it wanted against a defence that couldn't get its feet set. Catalans' 6 offloads to Leigh's 4 suggest they had a bit more ambition trying to move it through contact, but ambition without go-forward doesn't fill a stat sheet where it counts.

What makes it a bit odd is the form line coming in. Catalans had the stronger forwards on paper, 863 to 809, and a big edge in the backs, 1036 to 834, plus a clear advantage at hooker, 1000 to 600. None of that showed up. Leigh's halves were rated marginally ahead, 1018 to 1000, and on this evidence that's the only positional edge that actually translated to the field. Form-wise Leigh came in on a WWLWW run against Catalans' LWWLL, and the tackle count backs it up: Leigh were averaging 256.2 in their last five to Catalans' 190.4, and that appetite for defensive work showed against a Catalans side that managed just the one try all night.

Alphr's model had Leigh Leopards winning at 81% probability, rated them 1625 to Catalans' 1418, and picked the margin at 10.7 points on a combined total of 47. Leigh went up 16-0 at the break and never let off, running out 28-point winners. Right result, wrong shape entirely, the margin model finished 2 from 15 on this one. Picking the winner was the easy part. Picking just how thoroughly Catalans would be taken apart in the middle third, from 16-0 to 28-0 inside about half an hour of game time, was a different job altogether.

Catalans will point to the cleaner ball-handling and take some comfort from it, but errors don't win footy matches on their own, running metres and line breaks do, and Leigh had both in bulk. For Leigh, the discipline count, 5 penalties conceded to Catalans' 7, meant they were rarely defending their own line under pressure, and when you're up 28-0 with 15 minutes left, discipline stops mattering much anyway.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **1,198** | Run metres | 765 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **25** | Tackle busts | 20 |
| 4 | Offloads | **6** |
| 9 | Errors | **7** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 5/6 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 5 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 9 | Errors | 7 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leigh Leopards to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 10.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. Leigh Leopards led 16–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (15/100) — penalties Leigh Leopards 5 · Catalans Dragons 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leigh Leopards to win — model probability 80.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leigh Leopards — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leigh Leopards 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Leigh Leopards by 11 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leigh Leopards here: 81% to see off Catalans Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leigh Leopards sit 207 ELO points clear, 1625 to 1418. Form leans Leigh Leopards' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Catalans Dragons.

Leigh Leopards own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. The margin model has Leigh Leopards by 10.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. Leigh Leopards to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leigh Leopards | Stat | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 11.4pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.2pts |
| -1.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 895.2m | Run Metres | 782.4m |
| 2.8 | Clean Breaks | 3.0 |
| 256.2 | Tackles | 190.4 |
| 6.8 | Errors | 7.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leigh Leopards | R27 W · W · L · R1 W · R2 W | 11.4 |
| Catalans Dragons | R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leigh Leopards lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Catalans Dragons | 18 – 33 | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons 52% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leigh Leopards | 16 – 22 | Catalans Dragons | Leigh Leopards 70% ✗ |
| 2025 | R15 | Catalans Dragons | 12 – 26 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Leigh Leopards | 26 – 24 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Leigh Leopards | 30 – 2 | Catalans Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the middle: Super League's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Catalans Dragons defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Lam, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Catalans Dragons' best path is the right edge: Super League's 7th-ranked right edge attack (0.63 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 4th there (0.52 conceded/game). Key man: Davies, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.66/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.52/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.14/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 5th) | 0.81/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 0.69/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.52/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.48/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 10 | 3 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 147m/g | 47m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 31 | 35 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 368m/g | 394m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.8/g | 12.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 83.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leigh Leopards | Catalans Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 4 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 197m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.5% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Catalans Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.26/g (lg 0.18) +44% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.05) +60% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Five-Eighths 0.17/g (lg 0.18) -6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Progress with Unity Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 2 | AJ Towse | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.03 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $24.52 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.65 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.91 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/14g | 20% | — | 🏉 12' 44' 70' |
| 5 | Keanan Brand | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 13% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.91 AI 15% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 6 | Lachlan Lam | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Gareth O'Brien | HB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 4/22g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.66 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Owen Trout | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.93 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ethan O'Neill | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 12 | Jack Hughes | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 2/21g | 4% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Louis Brogan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 4/24g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.69 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $29.20 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 2/15g | 6% | — | — |

**Catalans Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Rouge | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Tommy Makinson | WG | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 1/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.64 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.84 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Arthur Romano | CE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthieu Laguerre | CE | 2 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Nick Cotric | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Reimis Smith | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | Luke Keary | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Romain Navarrete | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Garcia | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Julian Bousquet | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.66 AI 20% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $36.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 11 | Bayley Sironen | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Elliott Whitehead | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 13 | Oliver Partington | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Tariq Sims | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Alrix Da Costa | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 16 | Jordan Dezaria | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Seguier | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leigh Leopards 1625 · Catalans Dragons 1418 · ELO difference: 207 in favour of Leigh Leopards

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Catalans Dragons |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)