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Super League | Round 3

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PROGRESS WITH UNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 28 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
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LEI

Leigh Leopards

346
CAT

Catalans Dragons

✅ Model correct — backed Leigh Leopards at 81%

AI Win Probability

81%Leigh LeopardsFavourite

Leigh Leopards

81%

Catalans Dragons

19%

AI Match Overview

Leigh Leopards are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Catalans Dragons. The model sees Leigh Leopards ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Halves Control. Leigh Leopards carry a 207-point ELO rating advantage (1625 vs 1418). Recent form favours Leigh Leopards with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Catalans Dragons. The margin model predicts Leigh Leopards by 10.7 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Leigh Leopards to Win @1.51

Winner ✓

Edge

+14.5%

Line / Spread

Leigh Leopards +10.7 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Leigh Leopards 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Leigh Leopards
R1W
R2W

older → newer

11.4
Catalans Dragons
R1L
R2L
12.8

Avg Conceded

13.2

Leigh Leopards

16.2

Catalans Dragons

Avg Margin

-1.8

Leigh Leopards

-3.4

Catalans Dragons

Run Metres

895

Leigh Leopards

782

Catalans Dragons

Clean Breaks

2.8

Leigh Leopards

3.0

Catalans Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Leigh Leopards lead 4-1
May 2026LEI 33 - 18 CAT
Mar 2026LEI 16 - 22 CAT
Jun 2025LEI 26 - 12 CAT
May 2025LEI 26 - 24 CAT
Feb 2024LEI 30 - 2 CAT
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

LEI
1625Overall1418
CAT
ELO difference: +207 in favour of Leigh Leopards

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

809Forwards863
Best: 1108CAT +54Best: 1000
834Backs1036
Best: 962CAT +202Best: 1326
1018Halves1000
Best: 1018LEI +18Best: 1000
600Hooker1000
CAT +400

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

LEI
Stat
CAT
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
11.4pts
Avg Score
12.8pts
13.2pts
Avg Conceded
16.2pts
-1.8pts
Avg Margin
-3.4pts
895.2m
Run Metres
782.4m
2.8
Clean Breaks
3.0
256.2
Tackles
190.4
6.8
Errors
7.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Leopards
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Leopards
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%

Model Confidence

81%

Leigh Leopards predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +10.7

2/4 match predictions correct