# Leeds Rhinos v Castleford Tigers — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Leeds Rhinos 38 – 24 Castleford Tigers

_Leeds Rhinos charge down Castleford Tigers._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Leeds Rhinos 84% / Castleford Tigers 16% · AMT Headingley Stadium · Sun, 02 Mar, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Leeds Rhinos: Jake Connor (21' 1st), Keenan Palasia (25'), Harry Newman (36'), Jack Sinfield (41' Tipped ⚡), Ash Handley (48' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Hall (56' Tipped ⚡), Riley Lumb (64' Tipped ⚡) · Castleford Tigers: Fletcher Rooney (51' Tipped ⚡), Zac Cini (70' Tipped ⚡), Jeremiah Simbiken (75'), Innes Senior (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | 84% | Won |
| Castleford Tigers | 16% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 18.1 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Leeds Rhinos vs Castleford Tigers Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Leeds Rhinos 38–24 Castleford Tigers in Super League Round 3 at AMT Headingley Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Leeds Rhinos winning by 18.1 points and 62 points was 21 more than the 41 it expected. The 84% win probability was never in doubt. The margin, though, told a different story: Leeds won by 14, well inside the 18.1 tip, and by full time the ledger read 6 from 15 on this match, with the 13-24 margin band the one that landed.

Where the read held was obvious from the moment the scoreboard moved. Leeds were 18-0 up at half-time and didn't concede a point until the 51st minute. Jake Connor opened the scoring in the 21st minute and kept adding to it with the boot, and by the break Keenan Palasia and Harry Newman had crossed as well. That's the version of the match the model saw coming: Leeds' backs rated at 1035 against Castleford's 652, and it showed, six line breaks to three, 35 tackle busts to 17, 1,337 run metres to 758.

Where it broke was the finish. Leeds led 38-6 after Riley Lumb's try in the 64th minute and looked to be cruising. Castleford then found three tries in the last quarter of the game, Zac Cini in the 70th, Jeremiah Simbiken in the 75th, Innes Senior in the 77th, with Tex Hoy converting all three. That's 18 unanswered points from a side averaging 10 a game across its last five and conceding 34.6. None of it changed the result, but it turned an 18-point model tip into a 14-point final margin, and it explains the gap between the predicted 41 total and the 62 that actually went up.

Castleford's forward pack rating of 911 against Leeds' 778 was the one number pointing their way before kick-off, and for a side that had lost all five of its previous outings, it mattered more than the ladder suggested. They were also the tidier side with ball in hand, just 3 errors to Leeds' 7, which says the four tries they did score came from taking their chances rather than being gifted field position.

Leeds didn't need discipline to win this one, they needed depth, and they had it everywhere that counted. Seven different try scorers, starting with Connor and running through Palasia, Newman, Jack Sinfield, Ash Handley, Ryan Hall and Lumb, is not a one-man performance. The hooker rating, 827 to 659, and the backs advantage both showed up exactly where you'd expect: quick ball, busted tackles, metres after contact.

Castleford will take some encouragement from the last twenty minutes, and Fletcher Rooney's try to get them off the mark in the 51st shows they had enough about them to trouble a big lead once it opened up. But an 18-0 half-time deficit against a side averaging 25.6 points a game across its last five, with two wins in that stretch against Castleford's none, was always going to be the harder problem to solve.

So the model got the winner right and the shape of the contest right, backs against forwards, class in one half against grunt in the other. It just didn't see Castleford's late surge coming, and that's the difference between a comfortable tip and an honest one.

**Key Match Stats**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **1,337** | Run metres | 758 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **35** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| **12** | Offloads | 5 |
| 7 | Errors | **3** |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 5/7 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 2 | Penalties Conceded | 2 |
| 7 | Errors | 3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Leeds Rhinos to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 18.1 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 6/15 on this match. The 13-24 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Clean Game** (5/100) — penalties Leeds Rhinos 2 · Castleford Tigers 2.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Leeds Rhinos to win — model probability 83.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Leeds Rhinos — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Leeds Rhinos 13-24 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Leeds Rhinos by 18 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Leeds Rhinos here: 84% to see off Castleford Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Leeds Rhinos sit 186 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1332. Form leans Leeds Rhinos' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Castleford Tigers.

Leeds Rhinos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Leeds Rhinos by 18.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Leeds Rhinos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Leeds Rhinos | Stat | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 10.0pts |
| 18.0pts | Avg Conceded | 34.6pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | -24.6pts |
| 1001.4m | Run Metres | 574.8m |
| 4.0 | Clean Breaks | 1.2 |
| 272.4 | Tackles | 162.4 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 5.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds Rhinos | R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 W | 25.6 |
| Castleford Tigers | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L | 10.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Leeds Rhinos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Castleford Tigers | 36 – 34 | Leeds Rhinos | Leeds Rhinos 69% ✗ |
| 2026 | R4 | Leeds Rhinos | 22 – 4 | Castleford Tigers | Leeds Rhinos 81% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 64 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 29 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Castleford Tigers | 6 – 26 | Leeds Rhinos | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Leeds Rhinos' best path is the left edge: Super League's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Castleford Tigers defence ranked 10th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Handley, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Castleford Tigers' best path is the right edge: Super League's 10th-ranked right edge attack (0.52 tries/game) runs at a Leeds Rhinos defence ranked 7th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Qareqare, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.85/g (att 5th) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.96/g (att 5th) · concedes 1.07/g (def 8th) | 0.74/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 10th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 7th) | 0.52/g (att 10th (weak)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 9th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 140m/g | 81m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th | 9th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 30 | 36 · 49 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 390m/g | 370m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 82% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Leeds Rhinos | Castleford Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 5 | 5 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 265m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 93.1% |

**Who scores on Castleford Tigers** — Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.05) +100% · 2nd Rows 0.41/g (lg 0.28) +46% · Centres 0.6/g (lg 0.42) +43%
**Who scores on Leeds Rhinos** — Hookers 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Locks 0.05/g (lg 0.05) +0% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AMT Headingley Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Leeds Rhinos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Connor | FB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 2 | Riley Lumb | WG | 2 in 2g | 4/7g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.58 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 3 | Harry Newman | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 5/12g | 28% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 4 | Ash Handley | CE | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 8/21g | 7/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.87 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $16.33 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' |
| 5 | Ryan Hall | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/16g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.36 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Morgan Gannon | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jack Sinfield | HB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 41' |
| 8 | Mikolaj Oledzki | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Ackers | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Cooper Jenkins | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | James Bentley | 2R | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 2/7g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.85 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | James Mcdonnell | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/13g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.79 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Keenan Palasia | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 14 | Jarrod O'Connor | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/13g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Lisone | INT | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 3/11g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.42 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.23 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Tom Holroyd | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Alfie Edgell | INT | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·4·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/14g | 15% | — | — |

**Castleford Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Rooney | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Lee Kershaw | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 3 | Sam Wood | CE | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Cini | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 70' |
| 5 | Innes Senior | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Daejarn Asi | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Tex Hoy | HB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 8 | Sylvester Namo | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 9 | Liam Horne | HK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | George Lawler | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Jeremaiha SIMBIKEN | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alex Mellor | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Westerman | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Judah Rimbu | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | George Griffin | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Joshua Hodson | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 17 | Muizz Mustapha | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Leeds Rhinos 1517 · Castleford Tigers 1332 · ELO difference: 186 in favour of Leeds Rhinos

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Castleford Tigers |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Leeds Rhinos |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Leeds Rhinos |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 18 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)