Leeds Rhinos
Castleford Tigers
AI Win Probability
Leeds Rhinos
84%
Castleford Tigers
16%
AI Match Overview
Leeds Rhinos are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Castleford Tigers. The model sees Leeds Rhinos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Leeds Rhinos carry a 186-point ELO rating advantage (1517 vs 1332). Recent form favours Leeds Rhinos with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Castleford Tigers. The margin model predicts Leeds Rhinos by 18.1 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Leeds Rhinos to Win @1.19
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.3%
Line / Spread
Leeds Rhinos +18.1 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Leeds Rhinos 13-24 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Leeds Rhinos | R1L R2W older → newer | 25.6 |
Castleford Tigers | R1L R2L | 10.0 |
Avg Conceded
18.0
Leeds Rhinos
34.6
Castleford Tigers
Avg Margin
7.6
Leeds Rhinos
-24.6
Castleford Tigers
Run Metres
1001
Leeds Rhinos
575
Castleford Tigers
Clean Breaks
4.0
Leeds Rhinos
1.2
Castleford Tigers
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Leeds Rhinos predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +18.1