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Super League | Round 3

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SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • THURSDAY 27 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

420
SAL

Salford Red Devils

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 81%

AI Win Probability

81%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

81%

Salford Red Devils

19%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Salford Red Devils. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 287-point ELO rating advantage (1686 vs 1399). Recent form favours Hull KR with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Salford Red Devils. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 3.2 points with a combined total of 42.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.32

Winner ✓

Edge

+5.4%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +3.2 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R1W
R2W

older → newer

14.2
Salford Red Devils
R1L
R2L
14.0

Avg Conceded

12.6

Hull KR

39.2

Salford Red Devils

Avg Margin

1.6

Hull KR

-25.2

Salford Red Devils

Run Metres

1166

Hull KR

557

Salford Red Devils

Clean Breaks

3.4

Hull KR

4.4

Salford Red Devils

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 3-2
Jul 2025HKR 74 - 12 SAL
May 2025HKR 54 - 0 SAL
Aug 2024HKR 32 - 12 SAL
Mar 2024HKR 10 - 17 SAL
Feb 2023HKR 16 - 26 SAL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1686Overall1399
SAL
ELO difference: +287 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

929Forwards799
Best: 1143HKR +130Best: 1088
826Backs978
Best: 976SAL +152Best: 1142
724Halves802
Best: 724SAL +78Best: 802
1000Hooker650
HKR +350

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
SAL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
14.2pts
Avg Score
14.0pts
12.6pts
Avg Conceded
39.2pts
1.6pts
Avg Margin
-25.2pts
1165.8m
Run Metres
557.4m
3.4
Clean Breaks
4.4
319.8
Tackles
172.2
9.0
Errors
6.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
KR
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Devils
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
Devils
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

81%

Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 42 · Line: +3.2

3/4 match predictions correct