# Hull KR v Salford Red Devils — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 42 – 0 Salford Red Devils

_Hull KR outfox Salford Red Devils._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 81% / Salford Red Devils 19% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Thu, 27 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Kelepi Tanginoa (2' 1st), Oliver Gildart (7'), Tom Davies (12' Tipped ⚡), Jack Broadbent (44' Tipped ⚡), Jai Whitbread (50'), Jai Whitbread (59'), Jez Litten (70') · Salford Red Devils: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 81% | Won |
| Salford Red Devils | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.2 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs Salford Red Devils Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Hull KR 42–0 Salford Red Devils in Super League Round 3 at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

One penalty conceded. Salford gave away eight. That discipline gap set the tone for a 42-0 demolition at Sewell Group Craven Park, and Hull KR barely had to work for the rest of it.

Kelepi Tanginoa got things moving inside two minutes, and by the 13th minute Hull KR were already out to 16-0 through Oliver Gildart and Tom Davies. Two Danny Richardson penalty goals in the 20th and 28th minutes made it 20-0 at the break, and that was before Salford had so much as troubled the scoreboard. A Jack Broadbent try early in the second half pushed it to 24-0, then Jai Whitbread crossed twice in the space of nine minutes to make it 36-0. Jez Litten's try in the 70th minute put the finishing touches on it. Salford never got a look in.

The territory numbers tell you why. Hull KR ran for 970 metres to Salford's 424, more than double, and turned that field position into eight line breaks against Salford's one. Twenty-four tackle busts to 17 is a difference, but it's the line breaks that really hurt, because a team that can't stop the opposition getting through simply can't stop the opposition scoring. Salford actually offloaded more, 5 to 3, and made one fewer error, 8 to 7, so this wasn't a case of Salford throwing the ball away every set. They just couldn't finish what little ball they had, and gave Hull KR too many cheap reset opportunities through indiscipline.

The positional ratings pointed to a tighter contest than this. Salford came in rated higher in the backs, 978 to 826, and in the halves, 802 to 724, which on paper suggested they'd have the guile to trouble a stronger forward pack.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| **970** | Run metres | 424 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **24** | Tackle busts | 17 |
| 3 | Offloads | **5** |
| **7** | Errors | 8 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 8 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 0 |
| 7/9 | Goals | 0/0 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 8 |
| 7 | Errors | 8 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 81% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.2 but the actual margin was 42 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 42, within 0 points. Hull KR led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 3/15 on this match.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (43/100) — penalties Hull KR 1 · Salford Red Devils 8.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 81.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 3 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 81% to see off Salford Red Devils. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 287 ELO points clear, 1686 to 1399. Form leans Hull KR's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Salford Red Devils.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 3.2, with the two sides combining for about 42. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 14.2pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 12.6pts | Avg Conceded | 39.2pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | -25.2pts |
| 1165.8m | Run Metres | 557.4m |
| 3.4 | Clean Breaks | 4.4 |
| 319.8 | Tackles | 172.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 6.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R27 W · W · L · R1 W · R2 W | 14.2 |
| Salford Red Devils | R26 W · R27 L · L · R1 L · R2 L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Salford Red Devils | 12 – 74 | Hull KR |
| 2025 | R10 | Hull KR | 54 – 0 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R24 | Hull KR | 32 – 12 | Salford Red Devils |
| 2024 | R3 | Salford Red Devils | 17 – 10 | Hull KR |
| 2023 | — | Salford Red Devils | 26 – 16 | Hull KR |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Salford Red Devils defence ranked 9th there (1.46 conceded/game). Key man: Lewis, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Salford Red Devils' best path is the left edge: Super League's 6th-ranked left edge attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 6th there (0.62 conceded/game). Key man: Cross, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.62/g (def 6th) | 0.75/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.38/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.86/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.52/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.79/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 7 | 14 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.5% | 86.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 61 · 28 | 32 · 46 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 363m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.1/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 85% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | Salford Red Devils |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 7 | 18 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 285m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Salford Red Devils** — 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.28) +61% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 0.93) +34%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — Wingers 0.81/g (lg 0.93) -13% · 2nd Rows 0.24/g (lg 0.28) -14% · Props 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niall Evalds | FB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/14g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.31 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 8/13g | 1/4g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Jack Broadbent | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 5/8g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.38 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 44' |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 2/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 3 in 2g | 12/10g (2·0·4·1·0·1·1·0·3·0) | 4/11g | 11/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.34 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.57 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Danny Richardson | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Peta Hiku | HB | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 9/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.04 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.54 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/22g | 20% | — | — |
| 9 | Michael McIlorum | HK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Rhyse Martin | 2R | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/3g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.30 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 10/25g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.78 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/36g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Jez Litten | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 5/38g | 18% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 15 | Dean Hadley | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/31g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/15g | 14% | — | 🏉 50' 59' |
| 17 | Kelepi Tanginoa | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/15g | 28% | — | 🏉 2' |

**Salford Red Devils** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Brierley | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Nene Macdonald | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Esan Marsters | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Tim Lafai | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | 🎯 First Try $11.11 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Jayden Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Marc Sneyd | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Brad Singleton | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Chris Atkin | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Ormondroyd | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Shane Wright | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Kallum Watkins | 2R | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/14g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Hill | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Justin Sangare | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Bullock | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Hankinson | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Tiaki Chan | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1686 · Salford Red Devils 1399 · ELO difference: 287 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Hull KR |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Salford Red Devils |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)