# Huddersfield Giants v Hull FC — Super League Round 3 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Huddersfield Giants 10 – 11 Hull FC

_Hull FC fight back to grind down Huddersfield Giants._

Half time: 10 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Huddersfield Giants 67% / Hull FC 33% · John Smith's Stadium · Fri, 28 Feb, 11:00 am AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Huddersfield Giants: Jacob Gagai (18'), Adam Swift (32' Tipped ⚡) · Hull FC: Lewis Martin (11' 1st), Harvey Barron (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | 67% | Lost |
| Hull FC | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.1 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Huddersfield Giants vs Hull FC Prediction & Tips | Super League Round 3 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:10 pm_

Huddersfield Giants 10–11 Hull FC in Super League Round 3 at John Smith's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Hull FC edged Huddersfield Giants 11–10 at John Smith's Stadium. Trailing 10–4 at half-time, Hull FC flipped the game after the break.

Lewis Martin opened the scoring; Huddersfield Giants crossed through Jacob Gagai and Adam Swift; Hull FC scored through Lewis Martin and Harvey Barron.

**Model Report Card**

Hull FC defied the model's 67% prediction for Huddersfield Giants, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.1 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The game's 21 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 45. Hull FC trailed 10–4 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 10–11. The model went 2/15 on this match.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Huddersfield Giants to win — model probability 67.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Huddersfield Giants — model probability 67.0% — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Huddersfield Giants 1-12 — model probability 67.0% — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Huddersfield Giants by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Huddersfield Giants here: 67% to see off Hull FC. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Huddersfield Giants sit 79 ELO points clear, 1388 to 1309. Form leans Huddersfield Giants' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Hull FC.

Huddersfield Giants own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Huddersfield Giants by 4.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Huddersfield Giants to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Huddersfield Giants | Stat | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 8.4pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 40.0pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | -31.6pts |
| 603.0m | Run Metres | 710.6m |
| 1.8 | Clean Breaks | 1.0 |
| 195.8 | Tackles | 255.6 |
| 5.4 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield Giants | R25 W · R26 L · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L | 15.6 |
| Hull FC | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 W · R2 L | 8.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Huddersfield Giants lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Huddersfield Giants | 22 – 16 | Hull FC | Hull FC 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R14 | Hull FC | 36 – 12 | Huddersfield Giants | Huddersfield Giants 54% ✗ |
| 2025 | R20 | Hull FC | 14 – 30 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Huddersfield Giants | 12 – 10 | Hull FC | not priced |
| 2024 | — | Hull FC | 22 – 56 | Huddersfield Giants | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Huddersfield Giants' best path is the right edge: Super League's 5th-ranked right edge attack (0.74 tries/game) runs at a Hull defence ranked 12th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Hewitt, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Hull's best path is the left edge: Super League's 9th-ranked left edge attack (0.59 tries/game) runs at a Huddersfield Giants defence ranked 10th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.22/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.59/g (att 9th (weak)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 9th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.89/g (att 6th) · concedes 1/g (def 6th) | 0.37/g (att 12th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 11th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.74/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.93/g (def 10th (weak)) | 0.48/g (att 11th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 12th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th (weak) | 11th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 14 | 2 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 49m/g | 54m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th (weak) | 10th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th (weak) | 12th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 53 | 25 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 204m/g | 281m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 7.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 80.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Huddersfield Giants | Hull FC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 6 | 7 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 154m/g | 305m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.2% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Hull** — Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Five-Eighths 0.22/g (lg 0.18) +22%
**Who scores on Huddersfield Giants** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.25/g (lg 0.18) +39% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at John Smith's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Huddersfield Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Gagai | FB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 2 | Aidan McGowan | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.12 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.09 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Bibby | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.04 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Sam Hewitt | CE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/8g | 6/29g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.44 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Adam Swift | WG | 0 in 2g | 11/10g (1·2·1·1·3·1·1·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 3/6g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.54 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.99 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Tui Lolohea | 5/8 | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 7 | George Flanagan | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Matty English | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Zac Woolford | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Oliver Wilson | PR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 0/36g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Murchie | 2R | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 12 | Joe Greenwood | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 4/36g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Leroy Cudjoe | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ashton Golding | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 5/31g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Tom Burgess | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Fenton Rogers | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Billington | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Hull** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Logan Moy | FB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.59 AI 29% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $28.47 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Harvey Barron | WG | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.70 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $29.26 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Tom Briscoe | CE | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Jordan Rapana | CE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.29 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $26.38 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lewis Martin | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 6 | Cade Cust | 5/8 | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Aidan Sezer | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Herman Ese'ese | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Amir Bourouh | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Yusuf Aydin | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Ed Chamberlain | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Lane | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | John Asiata | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Hugo Salabio | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Ashworth | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Denive Balmforth | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Fash | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Huddersfield Giants 1388 · Hull FC 1309 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Huddersfield Giants |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Hull FC |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | — |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Huddersfield Giants |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/super-league/match/2025-r3-huddersfield-giants-v-hull-fc
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:10 UTC (latest tip update)