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Super League | Round 3

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JOHN SMITH'S STADIUM • FRIDAY 28 FEB, 11:00 AM AEDT
Full Time
HUD

Huddersfield Giants

1011
HUL

Hull

❌ Upset — model favoured Huddersfield Giants at 67%

AI Win Probability

67%Huddersfield GiantsFavourite

Huddersfield Giants

67%

Hull

33%

AI Match Overview

Huddersfield Giants are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hull. The model sees Huddersfield Giants ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. Huddersfield Giants carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1388 vs 1309). Recent form favours Huddersfield Giants with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Hull. The margin model predicts Huddersfield Giants by 4.1 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Huddersfield Giants to Win @1.75

Lost ✗

Edge

+9.8%

Line / Spread

Huddersfield Giants +4.1 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Huddersfield Giants 1-12 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Huddersfield Giants
R1L
R2L

older → newer

15.6
Hull
R1W
R2L
8.4

Avg Conceded

27.2

Huddersfield Giants

40.0

Hull

Avg Margin

-11.6

Huddersfield Giants

-31.6

Hull

Run Metres

603

Huddersfield Giants

711

Hull

Clean Breaks

1.8

Huddersfield Giants

1.0

Hull

H2H History (Last 5)Huddersfield Giants lead 5-0
Jul 2025HUD 30 - 14 HUL
May 2025HUD 12 - 10 HUL
Feb 2024HUD 56 - 22 HUL
Feb 2024HUD 24 - 18 HUL
Sep 2023HUD 52 - 20 HUL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HUD
1388Overall1309
HUL
ELO difference: +79 in favour of Huddersfield Giants

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

866Forwards714
Best: 1131HUD +152Best: 885
760Backs769
Best: 867EvenBest: 882
806Halves957
Best: 806HUL +151Best: 957
1161Hooker602
HUD +559

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HUD
Stat
HUL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
15.6pts
Avg Score
8.4pts
27.2pts
Avg Conceded
40.0pts
-11.6pts
Avg Margin
-31.6pts
603.0m
Run Metres
710.6m
1.8
Clean Breaks
1.0
195.8
Tackles
255.6
5.4
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Giants
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Giants
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Giants
5
Halves Control9.0%
Hull
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
7
H2H History6.0%
Giants

Model Confidence

67%

Huddersfield Giants predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +4.1

0/4 match predictions correct