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Super League | Semi Finals

alphr.com.au

Fri 3 Oct10:00am
WIGWIG
LEILEI
Sat 4 Oct10:00am
HKRHKR
STHSTH
THE BRICK COMMUNITY STADIUM • FRIDAY 3 OCT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
WIG

Wigan Warriors

186
LEI

Leigh Leopards

✅ Model correct — backed Wigan Warriors at 57%

AI Win Probability

57%Wigan WarriorsFavourite

Wigan Warriors

57%

Leigh Leopards

43%

AI Match Overview

Wigan Warriors hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Leigh Leopards are far from out of this at 43%. The model sees Wigan Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Wigan Warriors carry a 72-point ELO rating advantage (1778 vs 1706). The margin model predicts Wigan Warriors by 6.1 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wigan Warriors to Win @1.32

Winner ✓

Edge

-19.1%

Line / Spread

Wigan Warriors +6.1 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wigan Warriors 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wigan Warriors
R23W
R24W
R25W
R26W
R27W

older → newer

37.2
Leigh Leopards
R24W
R25W
R26W
R27W
R28W
32.8

Avg Conceded

4.4

Wigan Warriors

10.8

Leigh Leopards

Avg Margin

32.8

Wigan Warriors

22.0

Leigh Leopards

Run Metres

1256

Wigan Warriors

1321

Leigh Leopards

Clean Breaks

6.2

Wigan Warriors

6.4

Leigh Leopards

H2H History (Last 5)Wigan Warriors lead 3-2
Mar 2026WIG 54 - 0 LEI
Jul 2025WIG 8 - 18 LEI
May 2025WIG 36 - 28 LEI
Mar 2025WIG 0 - 1 LEI
Feb 2024WIG 38 - 0 LEI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WIG
1778Overall1706
LEI
ELO difference: +72 in favour of Wigan Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

858Forwards927
Best: 1237LEI +69Best: 1164
1000Backs947
Best: 1124WIG +53Best: 1023
944Halves1028
Best: 944LEI +83Best: 1028
600Hooker910
LEI +310

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WIG
Stat
LEI
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
5.0
37.2pts
Avg Score
32.8pts
4.4pts
Avg Conceded
10.8pts
32.8pts
Avg Margin
22.0pts
1255.6m
Run Metres
1321.4m
6.2
Clean Breaks
6.4
269.0
Tackles
268.0
8.0
Errors
7.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
Warriors
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Leopards
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
5
Halves Control9.0%
Leopards
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
Warriors
7
H2H History6.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

57%

Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +6.1

3/4 match predictions correct