# Wigan Warriors v Leigh Leopards — Super League Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wigan Warriors 18 – 6 Leigh Leopards

_Wigan Warriors conquer Leigh Leopards._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wigan Warriors 57% / Leigh Leopards 43% · The Brick Community Stadium · Fri, 03 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wigan Warriors: Bevan French (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Bevan French (39' 1st Tipped ⚡), Sam Walters (80') · Leigh Leopards: Robbie Mulhern (26')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | 57% | Won |
| Leigh Leopards | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wigan Warriors vs Leigh Leopards Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Wigan Warriors 18–6 Leigh Leopards in Super League Semi Finals at The Brick Community Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wigan Warriors led 14-6 at the break, and Leigh Leopards never got the accelerator working after that. Sam Walters' try in the 80th minute was the only score of the second half, and it did nothing more than confirm what had been true since half-time: Wigan had banked enough in the first forty to see it out. Final score 18-6.

The first half told the whole story. Bevan French opened the scoring in the 13th minute, Adam Keighran added the extras, and Wigan were 6-0 up before Leigh found an answer through Robbie Mulhern in the 26th. Gareth O'Brien's conversion levelled it at 6-6, briefly, before Keighran slotted a penalty goal and French crossed again right on the stroke of half-time to make it 14-6. Two French tries either side of a Leigh response, and Wigan never trailed again.

What's notable is that Leigh actually won a fair chunk of the arm-wrestle in the stat sheet. They ran for 1,330 metres to Wigan's 1,316, busted 50 tackles to Wigan's 43, and offloaded the ball 13 times against Wigan's six. On paper that's the shape of a team doing plenty right. It just didn't convert into points, because Wigan's line stood up when it mattered and Leigh's own discipline let them down, three penalties conceded to Wigan's one.

Errors cut the other way. Leigh were the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing it up seven times to Wigan's ten, which makes the scoreline a bit of a puzzle until you look at where those errors happened and remember Wigan didn't need to be clean, they needed to be clinical. Two tries from French and one from Walters were enough.

The positional numbers going in flagged Leigh as the stronger pack (927 to 858), stronger in the halves (1028 to 944), and well clear at hooker (910 to 600). Wigan's edge was out the back, 1000 to 947, and that's exactly where the game turned. French doing the damage in the backline is precisely what that rating suggested might happen, regardless of who controlled the middle.

Form-wise both sides arrived unbeaten in their last five, which made this something of a form-line collision. Wigan's defensive numbers, conceding just 4.4 points a game on average, took a hit early with Mulhern's try, but they tightened it up from there and finished true to type. Leigh's average concession of 10.8 a game was closer to what actually happened to them here, an outcome the recent form had already been hinting at.

Alphr's model had Wigan favourites at 57 percent, with a projected margin of 6.1 and a combined total of 43. The winner was right, and the actual margin of 12 landed inside the tipped range closely enough that the 1-12 margin band call held up. The total was well off, 24 points played out against a projected 43, a reminder that a low-scoring arm-wrestle can follow the same shape as a shootout on paper and land nowhere near it on the board.

**Key Match Stats**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 1,316 | Run metres | **1,330** |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 43 | Tackle busts | **50** |
| 6 | Offloads | **13** |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 3 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3/3 | Goals | 1/1 |
| 1 | Penalties Conceded | 3 |
| 10 | Errors | 7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wigan Warriors to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 24 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 3/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Wigan Warriors 1 · Leigh Leopards 3.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wigan Warriors to win — model probability 56.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wigan Warriors — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wigan Warriors 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wigan Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wigan Warriors are the call at 57%, but Leigh Leopards stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wigan Warriors sit 72 ELO points clear, 1778 to 1706.

Wigan Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Wigan Warriors by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Wigan Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wigan Warriors | Stat | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 4.4pts | Avg Conceded | 10.8pts |
| 32.8pts | Avg Margin | 22.0pts |
| 1255.6m | Run Metres | 1321.4m |
| 6.2 | Clean Breaks | 6.4 |
| 269.0 | Tackles | 268.0 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 7.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan Warriors | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 37.2 |
| Leigh Leopards | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · EF W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Wigan Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Leigh Leopards | 8 – 20 | Wigan Warriors | Wigan Warriors 63% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Wigan Warriors | 54 – 0 | Leigh Leopards | Wigan Warriors 75% ✓ |
| 2025 | R17 | Leigh Leopards | 18 – 8 | Wigan Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Wigan Warriors | 36 – 28 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Wigan Warriors | 0 – 1 | Leigh Leopards | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wigan Warriors' best path is the middle: Super League's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.48 tries/game) runs at a Leigh Leopards defence ranked 6th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Field, 24 tries in that channel this season.
- Leigh Leopards' best path is the left edge: Super League's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Wigan Warriors defence ranked 6th there (0.74 conceded/game). Key man: Hanley, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.44/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 6th) | 1.29/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.48/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.74/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.57/g (att 6th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 6th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.14/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 6th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 7 | 15 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 137m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 4.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 87 · 25 | 61 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 594m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 20.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 85.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wigan Warriors | Leigh Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 6th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 28 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 349m/g | 368m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.9% | 93.4% |

**Who scores on Leigh Leopards** — Halfbacks 0.19/g (lg 0.15) +27% · Five-Eighths 0.18/g (lg 0.18) +0% · Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0%
**Who scores on Wigan Warriors** — Locks 0.04/g (lg 0.04) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.21/g (lg 0.25) -16% · Props 0.08/g (lg 0.13) -38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at The Brick Community Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wigan Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Field | FB | 24 in 25g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·2·0) | 5/9g | 37/46g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.37 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.87 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Abbas Miski | WG | 10 in 10g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 6/8g | 33/31g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.49 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.76 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Adam Keighran | CE | 7 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 7/22g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Jake Wardle | CE | 15 in 26g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/11g | 21/42g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.98 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Liam Marshall | WG | 15 in 25g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·3·1·2·0) | 7/11g | 48/62g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.09 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.91 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Harry Smith | 5/8 | 3 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 12/62g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Bevan French | HB | 12 in 19g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 8/9g | 50/46g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.15 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' 39' |
| 8 | Liam Byrne | PR | 0 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/59g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Brad O'Neill | HK | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/37g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Luke Thompson | PR | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Sam Walters | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/21g | 16% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 12 | Liam Farrell | 2R | 4 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 21/60g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Kaide Ellis | LK | 1 in 27g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/47g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joseph Havard | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Junior Nsemba | INT | 7 in 26g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 7/32g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Patrick Mago | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 17 | Kruise Leeming | INT | 4 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 5/26g | 14% | — | — |

**Leigh Leopards** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bailey Hodgson | FB | 4 in 27g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Keanan Brand | WG | 17 in 25g | 10/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·2·3·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.72 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $22.36 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Tesi Niu | CE | 6 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Umyla Hanley | CE | 11 in 23g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/7g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Charnley | WG | 8 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 4/19g | 0/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.38 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.02 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Gareth O'Brien | 5/8 | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Lam | HB | 4 in 28g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Joe Ofahengaue | PR | 5 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 9 | Edwin Ipape | HK | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Robbie Mulhern | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/6g | 2% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 11 | Frankie Halton | 2R | 5 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Owen Trout | 2R | 6 in 26g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaac Liu | LK | 3 in 28g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Hughes | INT | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/26g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec Tuitavake | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Davis | INT | 4 in 28g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Brad Dwyer | INT | 4 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 4/16g | 3/7g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.51 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wigan Warriors 1778 · Leigh Leopards 1706 · ELO difference: 72 in favour of Wigan Warriors

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Leigh Leopards |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Wigan Warriors |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Wigan Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Wigan Warriors predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)