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Super League | Semi Finals

alphr.com.au

Fri 3 Oct10:00am
WIGWIG
LEILEI
Sat 4 Oct10:00am
HKRHKR
STHSTH
SEWELL GROUP CRAVEN PARK • SATURDAY 4 OCT, 10:00 AM AEST
Full Time
HKR

Hull KR

2012
STH

St Helens

✅ Model correct — backed Hull KR at 78%

AI Win Probability

78%Hull KRFavourite

Hull KR

78%

St Helens

22%

AI Match Overview

Hull KR are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Helens. The model sees Hull KR ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. Hull KR carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1645). Recent form favours Hull KR with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Helens. The margin model predicts Hull KR by 5.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Hull KR to Win @1.31

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.6%

Line / Spread

Hull KR +5.9 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Hull KR 1-12 @3.30

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 40.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Hull KR
R23L
R24W
R25W
R26L
R27W

older → newer

15.2
St Helens
R24L
R25L
R26L
R27W
R28W
12.8

Avg Conceded

17.6

Hull KR

19.2

St Helens

Avg Margin

-2.4

Hull KR

-6.4

St Helens

Run Metres

1147

Hull KR

1150

St Helens

Clean Breaks

3.8

Hull KR

2.2

St Helens

H2H History (Last 5)Hull KR lead 5-0
Apr 2026HKR 52 - 10 STH
Aug 2025HKR 12 - 8 STH
Jun 2025HKR 34 - 4 STH
Mar 2025HKR 20 - 10 STH
Feb 2024HKR 40 - 20 STH
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

HKR
1708Overall1645
STH
ELO difference: +63 in favour of Hull KR

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

808Forwards818
Best: 983EvenBest: 994
1011Backs904
Best: 1285HKR +107Best: 1009
932Halves930
Best: 932EvenBest: 930
705Hooker925
STH +220

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

HKR
Stat
STH
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
15.2pts
Avg Score
12.8pts
17.6pts
Avg Conceded
19.2pts
-2.4pts
Avg Margin
-6.4pts
1146.6m
Run Metres
1149.6m
3.8
Clean Breaks
2.2
307.0
Tackles
280.4
9.6
Errors
9.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference15.0%
KR
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Helens
3
Backline Quality10.0%
KR
4
Recent Win Rate10.0%
KR
5
Halves Control9.0%
6
Venue Advantage8.0%
KR
7
H2H History6.0%
KR

Model Confidence

78%

Hull KR predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +5.9

3/4 match predictions correct