# Hull KR v St Helens — Super League Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Hull KR 20 – 12 St Helens

_Hull KR fly past St Helens._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Hull KR 78% / St Helens 22% · Sewell Group Craven Park · Sat, 04 Oct, 10:00 am AEST

**Try Scorers** — Hull KR: Mikey Lewis (16' 1st), Joe Burgess (23' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Gildart (62' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Gildart (70' Tipped ⚡) · St Helens: Deon Cross (43' Tipped ⚡), Harry Robertson (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | 78% | Won |
| St Helens | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Hull KR vs St Helens Prediction & Tips | Super League Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 May 2026, 07:35 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:18 pm_

Hull KR 20–12 St Helens in Super League Semi Finals at Sewell Group Craven Park. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Hull KR by 5.9. They won by 8. Close enough to call it a good week's work, though the shape of the game didn't quite match the shape of the prediction.

The model backed Hull KR at 78%, and by half-time that looked conservative. Arthur Mourgue's penalty goal in the 13th got it going, Mikey Lewis crossed three minutes later, and Joe Burgess added another before the 23rd minute was done. 12-0 at the break, St Helens held scoreless, and Hull KR looking like they might run away with it entirely.

They didn't, not straight away. Deon Cross got St Helens on the board in first-half stoppage time carried into the 43rd minute, Jonny Lomax's conversion made it 12-6, and for a while the margin the model predicted looked like exactly where this was heading. St Helens had clawed back six points without much fuss.

Then Oliver Gildart happened, twice. He scored in the 62nd minute and again in the 70th, turning a nervy 12-6 game into a 20-6 canter. Harry Robertson's late try and Lomax's conversion brought it back to 20-12, but by then there were only a few minutes left and Hull KR were never going to let it slip.

The stat sheet explains why Hull KR were always going to be hard to run down. They ran for 1,085 metres to St Helens' 771, broke the line six times to two, and racked up 46 tackle busts to St Helens' 30. That's not a narrow edge, that's one team getting go-forward whenever they wanted it. St Helens' forward pack rated marginally higher going in, 818 to 808, but it didn't show up where it needed to on the day.

Discipline told a similar story. Hull KR gave away just 3 penalties, St Helens 7, and errors ran 7 to 9 in the same direction. When one side is cleaner and better disciplined, the shape of a game like this writes itself early and just needs finishing off.

The one number that didn't fit the pre-match script was St Helens' hooker rating, 925 to Hull KR's 705, the biggest positional gap on the sheet. It didn't translate into first-half points, and by the time St Helens found some rhythm through Cross and Robertson, the deficit was already too deep to make it count.

Form lines had Hull KR grinding out results rather than blowing teams away, an average margin of minus 2.4 over their last five, so an 8-point win with a bit of late padding fits the pattern more than it breaks it. St Helens arrived on the back of two wins after three losses, but conceding at nearly 19 points a game coming in, and they shipped 20 here.

Alphr's model went 5 from 15 on the card this round, though it nailed the winner, the margin band and got within two points of the actual gap. Wins and misses, all of it, but this one leans well towards the ledger's right column.

**Key Match Stats**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| **1,085** | Run metres | 771 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **46** | Tackle busts | 30 |
| 9 | Offloads | 9 |
| **7** | Errors | 9 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |

**Scoring Breakdown**

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 2/6 | Goals | 2/2 |
| 3 | Penalties Conceded | 7 |
| 7 | Errors | 9 |
| 0 | Sin Bins | 1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Hull KR to win at 78% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Hull KR by 5.9 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The model went 5/15 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Ref Watch: Questionable** (40/100) — penalties Hull KR 3 · St Helens 7.

_Official Super League match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Hull KR to win — model probability 77.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hull KR — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Hull KR 1-12 — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over — model probability 50.0% — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Hull KR by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Hull KR here: 78% to see off St Helens. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Hull KR sit 63 ELO points clear, 1708 to 1645. Form leans Hull KR's way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for St Helens.

Hull KR own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Hull KR by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Hull KR to win, not to win big.

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Hull KR | Stat | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.2pts | Avg Score | 12.8pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 1146.6m | Run Metres | 1149.6m |
| 3.8 | Clean Breaks | 2.2 |
| 307.0 | Tackles | 280.4 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Hull KR | R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 W | 15.2 |
| St Helens | R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 W · EF W | 12.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Hull KR lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | St Helens | 36 – 12 | Hull KR | St Helens 54% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Hull KR | 52 – 10 | St Helens | Hull KR 52% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Hull KR | 12 – 8 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R13 | Hull KR | 34 – 4 | St Helens | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | St Helens | 10 – 20 | Hull KR | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (12 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Hull KR's best path is the left edge: Super League's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.81 tries/game) runs at a St Helens defence ranked 2nd there (0.54 conceded/game). Key man: Burgess, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- St Helens' best path is the right edge: Super League's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Hull KR defence ranked 3rd there (0.59 conceded/game). Key man: Feldt, 20 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.81/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.44/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 6th) · concedes 0.54/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.11/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 5th) · concedes 0.54/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.59/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.43/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 5th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 29 · 7 | 17 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 170m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 91.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 28 | 73 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 615m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 18.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.4% | 85.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Hull KR | St Helens |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 8 | 14 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 292m/g | 311m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 93.1% | 92% |

**Who scores on St Helens** — Centres 0.36/g (lg 0.4) -10% · Wingers 0.68/g (lg 0.9) -24% · Five-Eighths 0.13/g (lg 0.18) -28%
**Who scores on Hull KR** — 2nd Rows 0.25/g (lg 0.25) +0% · Props 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.21) -14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Sewell Group Craven Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Hull KR** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Mourgue | FB | 10 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/11g | 2/13g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.74 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tom Davies | WG | 17 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/19g | 8/16g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.44 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $27.46 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Peta Hiku | CE | 7 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 12/25g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Oliver Gildart | CE | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 4/11g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.25 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $26.08 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' 70' |
| 5 | Joe Burgess | WG | 18 in 19g | 11/10g (0·1·0·0·2·4·3·0·0·1) | 12/18g | 19/20g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.72 AI 30% ✗ Not first | 🏉 23' |
| 6 | Mikey Lewis | 5/8 | 19 in 24g | 4/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 26/45g | 50% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Tyrone May | HB | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 8/25g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.67 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Sauaso Sue | PR | 4 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/31g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Jez Litten | HK | 8 in 26g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 8/50g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Jared Waerea-Hargreaves | PR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 11 | Dean Hadley | 2R | 2 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | James Batchelor | 2R | 5 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 12/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Elliot Minchella | LK | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/48g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Luckley | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/37g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jai Whitbread | INT | 5 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/27g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Rhyse Martin | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 3/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $6.07 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Jack Broadbent | INT | 13 in 26g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 10/20g | 32% | — | — |

**St Helens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Sailor | FB | 15 in 28g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Jon Bennison | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.81 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $30.06 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Harry Robertson | CE | 12 in 22g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 41% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 4 | Matt Whitley | CE | 3 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Deon Cross | WG | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.85 AI 19% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $37.37 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Jack Welsby | 5/8 | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jonny Lomax | HB | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/12g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Alex Walmsley | PR | 4 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Daryl Clark | HK | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Matty Lees | PR | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Curtis Sironen | 2R | 5 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Shane Wright | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Moses Mbye | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | James Bell | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | George Delaney | INT | 1 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Noah Stephens | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Hull KR 1708 · St Helens 1645 · ELO difference: 63 in favour of Hull KR

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 15.0% | Hull KR |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 4 | Recent Win Rate | 10.0% | Hull KR |
| 5 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 8.0% | Hull KR |
| 7 | H2H History | 6.0% | Hull KR |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Hull KR predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:18 UTC (latest tip update)